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OSUmetstud

Meteorologist
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About OSUmetstud

  • Birthday 04/21/1985

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    CYYT
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    Male
  • Location:
    St. John's, NL, Canada

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  1. OSUmetstud
    Right. Im not sure what is more relevant. Peak or post-peak during the matching winter months. Cansips is obviously wrong with its anomaly position either way and has been correcting each month for the past 6 or so.
  2. OSUmetstud
  3. OSUmetstud
    It's about 35°W with the warmest anomalies. 110°W on the Euro v. 145°W on the CANSIPS. Not trivial.
  4. OSUmetstud
    I used 850t anomaly because I feel thats a better metric for snow but either way.
  5. OSUmetstud
    Congrats abq and houston
  6. OSUmetstud
    Same charts show increases in Nino 3 and Nino 1.2 and decreases in Nino 4 compared to the early August forecasts.
  7. OSUmetstud
    New Copernicus Nino probabilities just came out today. Theres been little change in median prediction for relative Nino 3.4 month over month.
  8. OSUmetstud
    My apologies - I was referring to the August data, not July. ERSSTv6 was 1.67 in August. BOM GAMSSA was approximately 2.25.
  9. OSUmetstud
    Isnt a NOAA monthly RONI peak of 3.0 equivalent to 3.6 for BOM? Like what's even the issue lol. There's an approximate difference of 0.6C in the July verification data between ERSSTv6 and the GAMSSA. NOAA's ERSSTv6 does not use any satellite SST data and has 2x2 degree resolution. Its extremely conservative compared to the verification data for ECMWF and BOM.
  10. OSUmetstud
    And im talking about the peak. 3.4 taking a bit longer to get to the forecast heights does not mean that the peak will be wrong. The record trades are there..the record subsurface etc. The ecwmf from a few days ago had a RONI of 2.15 for July with a peak around 3.3C. The BOM RONI of 2.25 with a peak of 3.7C is not even that different relative to its own dataset.
  11. OSUmetstud
    I think assuming the relatively poor verification of a single month of August is bad logic. Every month prior to the past verified near or higher than models effectively. The warm water is still there and will eventually head west. BOM RONI forecast of 3.7 is effectively an ERSSTv6 RONI forecast of 3.0. Given the sst dataset and satellite integration. Its in line with other models just biased that warm direction.
  12. OSUmetstud
    Bom weekly data runs hotter than other agencies so you gotta compare apples to apples. The latest forecast compared to the one from just under a month ago:
  13. OSUmetstud
    Its also mostly just the cfs. The 3.4 ONI on the ecmwf plumes is very similar from August to September with a peak around 4C. The CCSC/IRI plumes average went up from the July 20 to the August 19 forecast. The early September BOM forecast had a similar peak to the early August one.
  14. OSUmetstud
    Nino 1+2 end up on the higher side of the average. The decreasing warm anomaly in Nino 4 was a big miss...falling completely outside of the ensemble spread. The forecasts for both Nino 3 and Nino 3.4 were near the bottom of guidance. RONI makes a difference but the sst analysis/database matters a lot too. ERA5/OSTIA puts the Nino 3.4 RONI around 2.1C whereas NOAA ERSSTv6 puts it at 1.7C. This is due to both very high resolution (0.05 degrees) and the inclusions of satellite-based SST analysis. The best forecasts from ECMWF from today and CPC/IRI plumes from late August still show this as a clearly record breaking Nino event with a RONI peak between 3 and 3.5C.
  15. OSUmetstud
    There's far too much disconnect with the 2m temp and 850mb temp on the CANSIPS over the Great Lakes. Maybe some sort of model issue?
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