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OSUmetstud

Meteorologist
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About OSUmetstud

  • Birthday 04/21/1985

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    CYYT
  • Gender
    Male
  • Location:
    St. John's, NL, Canada

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  1. OSUmetstud
    The June monthly OISST data was actually adjusted by 0.51. (1.55 v 1.04).
  2. OSUmetstud
    I believe because the nino itself is increasing the 20N-20S SSTs.
  3. OSUmetstud
    Roundy mentioned some issues with this method that sort of make sense to me. Im paraphrasing of course but its like youre punishing the el nino thats partially responsible for the increase of SSTs in the 20S-N band in the first place. There may be better ways to normalize the agw signal in the calculation.
  4. OSUmetstud
    The main difference is that NOAAs RONI reduction is larger. The raw weekly anomaly is 2.3. They subtracted 0.8.
  5. OSUmetstud
    The TNI is the more typical way to look at it and with Nino 4 historically warm right now it's going to be hard to more east-based than 1997.
  6. OSUmetstud
    Helene is not east of 84 w anyway. It's latest position is 84.2.
  7. OSUmetstud
    I don't really understand the question. The spaghetti models are not wholly separate from the global models. The global models are here on these plots...they're just adjusted for the current position of the hurricane in time. These are the models the nhc has used for years. The same ones.
  8. OSUmetstud
    The northern eyewall is the only part producing lightning. The southern eyewall is likely not open but it's also weaker.
  9. OSUmetstud
    im a big fan of the hafs modeling project in general, but man these runs of going back and forth between intense hurricane and weak to moderate hurricane are a bit much.
  10. OSUmetstud
    These are inundation maps based on different hurricane categories. It depends on a lot of factors like the topography of land that the water is trying to flow over. https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/203f772571cb48b1b8b50fdcc3272e2c/page/Category-4/
  11. OSUmetstud
    This is something that Eric Webb brought up the past few days before Helene took off. I see some elements from the WSW drifting toward Helene on the mid-level WV that are originating from John's outflow to the southwest that could be affecting things. Mostly internal factors, but i think there could be something there. This is shear that's underneath the outflow layer.
  12. OSUmetstud
    Getting pooped emojied for having weather opinions lol
  13. OSUmetstud
    Yeah i thought that too, but after all of these issue today, im more on the side that the internal structure of the storm just isn't going to allow a lot of intensification before landfall. It's not like the models are really forecasting a ton of that anymore. Global and hurricane models really only seem to show slow intensification this afternoon up until landfall. Well see.
  14. OSUmetstud
    But drowning shots make big money.
  15. OSUmetstud
    This was the VDM for one hour ago. That's the best estimate for position. 046 URNT12 KNHC 261447 VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092024 A. 26/14:15:30Z B. 25.28 deg N 085.55 deg W C. 700 mb 2792 m D. 962 mb E. 220 deg 8 kt F. CLOSED G. C30 H. 66 kt I. 340 deg 13 nm 14:11:30Z J. 064 deg 59 kt K. 338 deg 15 nm 14:11:00Z L. 76 kt M. 091 deg 35 nm 14:25:00Z N. 186 deg 101 kt O. 090 deg 58 nm 14:31:30Z P. 14 C / 3043 m Q. 16 C / 3049 m R. 12 C / NA S. 12345 / 07 T. 0.02 / 4 nm U. AF308 1609A HELENE OB 04 MAX FL WIND 101 KT 090 / 58 NM 14:11:00Z ;
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