eduggs

Several of the CAMs show snow in the Hudson Highlands and NNJ ridge tops Sat night into Sun morning. There's a pretty impressive CAD/low-level cold drain setting up. The warm boundary layer is the only thing preventing flakes below 1000ft but at least one model - the MPAS - says F-that... let's snow to the valley floor. Anybody think this could bring a wintry surprise for the N&W crew? Based on cold 925mb temps and some pretty strong lift, I think flakes down to 1000ft or even lower are likely but right now I expect light accumulations to be primarily above 2000ft. And probably 4-6"+ across the Catskill high peaks for the hiking crowd.

Monday was the better shot at snow. The ceiling for Tuesday is much lower and the duration, much shorter. But we might be finally setting up for a rainy period.

It started chilly this morning and the airmass starts fairly seasonable and we're still going to tickle 50 today and possibly eclipse it tomorrow under full sun. That's late February for you. It almost always feels warmer than expected this time of year when the calendar still reads winter but we've forgotten how warm this time of year actually feels in sunshine.

Biggest snowstorm in years and yet it somehow feels a little disappointing considering totals 10 miles east.

Newark has reported 12 hours of heavy snow and counting. I'm probably 20 miles from the airport and have had 0 hours of heavy snow. I hate this storm lol. Seriously anybody getting the goods today needs to get outside and walk around in it. I'm older than most of you and I've never personally experienced a 20" snow event... always in the wrong place at the wrong time. These events are not common.

Looks like Caldwell, NJ reported only 1 hour of heavy snow. Sussex only reported 2 hours of moderate snow. Rates just never really got going in N&W NJ. The bands never quite rotated far enough around. A far cry from the NWS forecast discussion language from 36 hours ago.

Running a net negative on snow depth out this way since I measured at 7:30am. Temperature approaching freezing now with lots of dripping. The middle of the storm was great but the ending third has been disappointing. The duration of accumulating snow here was about 12-14 hours. It was looking closer to 20 hours plus back this way a day or two ago. We'll get ours one of these years.

Picked up a half inch since 7:30am. It's painful looking at that heavy band just a few miles to the east. I was really hoping for some heavier stuff during daytime.

I was away for a few events so I'm not sure. I typically track close to Morristown but a few inches more long-term average. It's gotta be in the 40-50" range. Best season in a while for sure. It just feels like we left a lot on the table. Like synoptically, we weren't far off from an 80" season. I wasn't living in NJ in 2017-2018, so I've never seen a snowy winter IMB.

The NBM and the western leaning models were too aggressive, especially a day or two ago. But the eastern-most models were too dry/east.

This has been one of those winters where the stats say it's been a solid winter, but places to the east have consistently cashed in more on every event, which sours it just a touch. It would probably have been better not to check this forum or the radar.

Enjoy it! You are on the snowy side of the gradient.

Bummer for metro west. Looking at radar, it looks like the City is in a solid band. Congrats! Just flurries/light snow out this way. NYC East Winter.

Central Morris County: 14.5", 29.2F. The snow tapered off about an hour ago? It seems early to be over. Not quite historic and not as fun here in NJ as the Jan 25th event was visiting up in Putnam and Dutchess Counties due to less favorable timing and warmer temperatures, but still a really enjoyable event!

Central Morris County: 5" since accumulations began around 5pm. 30.0F. I cleared the snow board for the first time at 11pm. The temperature is a little warmer and the snow consistency a little wetter than I expected. The visibility has also been a bit higher than typical for big snow events - generally above 0.5mi - which is probably related to the relatively warm temperatures. Snowfall rates have been a little above 1" per hour for the past few hours.