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Euro joining the GFS and GEM with more onshore flow potential next week. New run Old run

....and 63F with a 10-15mph breeze, nice day overall.

We got a big bone thrown with todays rainy day bust being mostly cloudy and now the weekend system looking suppressed into Virginia.

The rise in minimum temperatures at the airport is nearly identical to the one in Mt Holly at the NWS forecast office over the last 30 years. The population at Mt. Holly has remained nearly steady at 10k as the population in Philadelphia has held steady around 1.5 million. So it doesn’t appear that the Philadelphia UHI intensity has changed much in 30 years. So all the warming over the last 30 years is the result of a steadily warming climate and not a local increase in UHI intensity. Philadelphia International Airport 30yr minimum temperature rise +2.6°F. Mt.Holly NWS WFO 30 year minimum temperature rise +2.8°F

I will repost as it seems no one has been able to come up with where the heck are the cooling adjustments for the known PHL UHI problem??? Below is an analysis of the PHL Airport average annual temperature from 1941 through 2023. I have overlaid the adjusted NCEI temperatures vs the actual reported averages. Why in the last 30 years have the PHL Airport Temps been adjusted upward in 19 of the last 30 years despite UHI?? And the overall cumulative adjustments over those years has been an overall net upward adjustment of 3.45 degrees in PHL actual reported temps. Thoughts????

Halfway between Tamaqua and Pottsville...

Oh gotcha. Well the Orioles are still in good shape. And they are only down a run.

24/14/4 .

What is the mean, std dev, total changed for each of the periods. More so what is their reason for a change and how they support the decision. The most important part is the support for the changes. You can't say they are wrong without proving their support wrong. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

Orioles not hitting. 3 hits on Monday night, 3 hits so far today.

I’ll add to a likely robust Niña (especially on a RONI basis) a robust -PDO, SE ridge, and W PAC marine heatwave a -NAO being highly unlikely. Only 13% of winters since 1979-80 have had a -NAO and they were all when the avg DJF sunspot number was <35. All 6 -NAO winters occurred within a couple of years of a solar cycle minimum. Interestingly, all 4 cycle minimums had either 1 or 2 -NAO winters within two years. Coincidence?? Regardless, AGW/CC may be the main reason for a big drop in winter -NAO frequency though I’ve yet to see proof of that. I suppose that may be hard to actually prove. As often is the case, any possible major SSWs would be a wildcard with unpredictable consequences for a portion of winter. Also, someone like @roardog , who’s N of Detroit, or someone in, say, Chicago, would have better potential per climo in a robust Niña vs those of us on E coast. And my being near SE coast places me among the least favored by La Niña/SE ridge/-PDO etc. But regardless, I still enjoy winter the most of any season (obviously nothing to do with snow, which is usually nonexistent here in any one winter). A warm winter here is still cooler than a cool fall/spring and with lower dewpoints. La Niña climo:

Man, this guy has no shame. Imagine claiming the state record for 95+ days is in a small town nestled in the northern Pennsylvania mountains. Not Philadelphia or one of the surrounding lower elevation sites, but a tiny, tiny hamlet at 1400' surrounded by 2000'+ ridges. Let's take a look at this data from 1927. For comparison, here is downtown Pittsburgh for the same month. Ridgway is typically 4 or 5 degrees cooler than Pittsburgh [particularly downtown]. It's not an exaggeration to say these high temperatures [which are quite obviously taken from an instrument that would have been exposed to direct sunlight] are 15-20 degrees too high. Actually, anyone with half a brain should be able to see it's actually proof of just how much it's warmed since then. 1927 - despite absurdly unrepresentative summertime high temperatures which are clearly 15-20 degrees too high most days - is only about a degree or so warmer than many recent years on the annual mean! And that is without any of the much-maligned adjustments for Time of Observation [was 5:30 p.m. in 1927] or change in instrumentation [MMTS].

Blue Jays getting hot? I was wondering when they would.

Looking at the overall picture right now, you would certainly have to favor above normal temps next winter in the east, especially south of New England. However, as I've said a million times, I still think there is a huge overreaction to the recent -PDO/mild eastern winters. What are we on about a 6 year stretch of -PDO now? That's hardly unheard of. Also, the '72-'73 super Nino had a -PDO, so that has happened before too. I highly doubt this is some kind of permanent change. We will see another +PDO winter, probably sometime later this decade.

since facts are over feelings...they don't feel any abuse as the truth sets them free!!!

Over the top warmth on the euro next week.

Kamchatka maybe

Steined here.

Yeah... "alarmist" seems to be becoming a term by 'people of a certain perspective' that allows them to automatically assess dismissibility. There are certainly times when 'cry-wolf' tactics are counter to protection and incomparable. CC as an agent of harm, is not one of those. If even one failed study out of the ginormous (and growing ) compendium of empirically based, objective science, occurs, the example is cited with jackhammer repetition as like - The only thing it does is expose a bias to not agree with the science without any willingness to to be objective about it.

you crave the abuse

Orioles in danger of being swept in a series (albeit, a rain-shortened 2 game set) for the first time since 2022, a span of 106 consecutive series of taking at least one game.

In my continuing review of after the fact NCEI temperature adjustments for Chester County PA I have reviewed the detailed monthly NCEI average temperatures for all 1,548 months since January 1895. For the first 1,271 months from January 1895 through November 2000. NCEI applied a post hoc chilling adjustment to the reported average temperatures for every single month for each and every year. So for all of those months the average reported temperatures as reported by the NWS Cooperative stations were chilled to an adjusted lower temperature. Since NCEI stopped these non-stop chilling adjustments starting in December 2000... they have now reversed gears and are now applying warming adjustments in 208 of the last 277 months or 75.1% of all available months between December 2000 and December 2023. Also of note is that in every single summer month between June and September since way back in June 2006 and continuing through last September 2023....for each of those last 72 consecutive summertime months they have warmed each and every month. Cooling the past and warming the more recent and current years....that will get us to the answer.

In my continuing review of after the fact NCEI temperature adjustments for Chester County PA I have reviewed the detailed monthly NCEI average temperatures for all 1,548 months since January 1895. For the first 1,271 months from January 1895 through November 2000. NCEI applied a post hoc chilling adjustment to the reported average temperatures for every single month for each and every year. So for all of those months the average reported temperatures as reported by the NWS Cooperative stations were chilled to an adjusted lower temperature. Since NCEI stopped these non-stop chilling adjustments starting in December 2000... they have now reversed gears and are now applying warming adjustments in 208 of the last 277 months or 75.1% of all months between December 2000 and December 2023. Also of note is that in every single summer month between June and September since way back in June 2006 and continuing through last September 2023....for each of those last 72 consecutive summertime months they have warmed each and every month. Cooling the past and warming the more recent and current years....that will get us to the answer.

In my continuing review of after the fact NCEI temperature adjustments for Chester County PA I have reviewed the detailed monthly NCEI average temperatures for all 1,548 months since January 1895. For the first 1,271 months from January 1895 through November 2000. NCEI applied a post hoc chilling adjustment to the reported average temperatures for every single month for each and every year. So for all of those months the average reported temperatures as reported by the NWS Cooperative stations were chilled to an adjusted lower temperature. Since NCEI stopped these non-stop chilling adjustments starting in December 2000... they have now reversed gears and are now applying warming adjustments in 208 of the last 277 months or 75.1% of all months between December 2000 and December 2023. Also of note is that in every single summer month between June and September since way back in June 2006 and continuing through last September 2023....for each of those last 72 consecutive summertime months they have warmed each and every month. Cooling the past and warming the more recent and current years....that will get us to the answer.

Congrats SE CT