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About this blog

A few massive snowstorms have gained the respectability that every storm wants to gain.  The last few blizzards to strike the SNE region have not lived up to their predecessors.  The Blizzard of 2005 and 2015 are two storms that come to mind that blow everyone away when it comes to wind gusts and snowfall amounts in Harwich, MA.  When it comes to intensity of snowfall the Blizzard of 2005 is second to none, while the duration of the storm the blizzard of 2015 wins out.  Also wind gusts 2005 wins out over 2015 as Nantucket lost power as an 86mph wind gust hit the island, while Nantucket didn't lose power to the island in the 2015 storm where a 78mph gust ended up hitting the island.  As for snowfall amounts as I said earlier, the Blizzard of 2005 beat out the Blizzard of 2015 by two inches, 35" to 33" respectively. 

Entries in this blog

12z GFS brings intrigue for New England Snow Lovers

Latest 12z GFS digs our northern stream shortwave even further southward now and develops a coastal storm just too far out to sea currently to bring substantial snows to Cape Cod.  But trends could continue towards favoring an actual closer to the coastline coastal low that could impact our area with snows.  Considering our northern stream is digging more than predicted today, this can bode well for later on mid-week period.  We need to watch the trends for today to see what the next week brings
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18z NAM run, brings hope to a rather dry period

Latest 18z NAM brings hope to snow weenies across SE New England for next week.  In the TUE/WED time frame an explosive disturbance is running through the northern stream flow and amplifies right on the coastline, now if trends continue to a more amped up disturbance, we could see a much higher impactful storm develop near the benchmark, stay tuned!
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First real shot at Ocean Effect Snow this season? Snows from Provincetown to Plymouth, MA

Below is the forecasted sounding from the 18z GFS for 111 hours out, which is around Wednesday afternoon.  This event for Ocean Effect Snows and inverted trough mix could be quite prolific, like the Lake Erie and Lake Ontario events, why, according to the model, we have a lot of moisture present, NNE winds present from 850mb to surface, 850mb temps dropping below -16C, SSTs around +8-9C, leading to 850mb to surface differentials around +25C leading to high instability, inversion heights near 700
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Arctic shortwave could produce its own snow for Cape Cod next Thursday

Next Thursday, the 6z GFS has a large arctic shortwave that moves southeastward from James Bay, Canada with extremely cold air mass associated with it and a high north of the region and a storm southeast of the region putting the area in an inverted trough, with northeasterly winds enhancing snowfall from Plymouth, MA to Chatham, MA with up to .5" of QPF in spots.  I will wait until the short range models are in range, these systems are quite fickle in location and small in stature leading to cl
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A single Band of Ocean Effect Snows has developed

An ocean effect snow band has developed since 2 pm this afternoon, while staying offshore for most of the afternoon, this evening the band is producing moderate to heavy snow in squalls and perhaps some thundersnows are possible, the band is developing through surface convergence developing as winds are from the northeast to the right and north to the west of the band, this acts as a convergent band allowing lift and perhaps heavy snows developing over the Outer Cape Cod region with DBZs reachin
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A 24-hour Ocean Effect Snow chance

Snow flurries or snow showers have a 20% chance of occurring over HYA eastward on the Cape.  Winds are currently northwesterly but will become northerly later today into tomorrow night as an ocean storm changes the wind field.
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00z Model Suite beginning to trend towards an impact storm on Wednesday night

Could there be impacts from a nor'easter on Cape Cod on Wednesday night into Thursday?  If there will be, it might be shortlived as snow impacts will be light if it occurs.  Judging by the model trends tonight, I am growing more confident of an impact, even though less than an inch would be possible unless something large changes like the storm is at the benchmark.  H5 has been trending towards a more amped up through the present with an Arctic jet shortwave on the backside of the longwave troug
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Week of Snow has turned into a Week that blows

With the many arctic shortwaves present in the flow of the northern stream, the Arctic is opened for business but remains extremely hostile for any significant coastal storms to impact the region.  With the questions remain about phasing or not phasing streams in the split flow regime spells extreme instability in the model fields.  With this in mind, no snow midweek and the next weekend system remains in question and minimal at this time.
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Explanation of December 5th Snowstorm Potential

Right now all options are on the table.  In the next 84 hours, the solutions will vary greatly in detail and overall vigor.  The reasoning for why so many options remain open for a blizzard to sunny days remains the unknowns.  The unknowns are the strength, wavelength, positioning of the factors at play.  One is the Arctic Shortwave, this is either the kicker s/w or the phasing backside s/w that determines if the storm gets whisked out to sea or comes to the benchmark location.  IF the phase hap
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Miller B Snowstorms and their tracks are important, I will tell you why

There are two kinds of tracks that impact the severity of a New England blizzard, one is the NJ track, where a surface low is west of the Apps and combines with southern energy and develops a coastal storm off the New Jersey Coastline.  Normally these primary systems with NJ coastal die off before they reach eastward or northward and combine with the coastal energy to form a monster snowstorm for Cape Cod.  The second track of this type of snowstorm is the Cape Hatteras track.  Now when the prim
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12z EURO December 5th forecast analysis H5 pattern

These five images are the four most reliable guidance models we have in determining a snowstorm its track, intensity and future impacts to New England.  What they all agree on is the overall setup and teleconnections featured on December 5th, 2018 their forecast in the next 7 days.  The models show a classic El Nino pattern, with a sub-tropical jet cutoff low approaching or over the Baja, CA region, with a large +PNA ridging into Alaska and the NW Canada Territories.  The GFS is the furthest nor
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Pattern favors cold and snow in the 6-10 day forecast

Could we see snow in the next 6-10 days, I believe so, do not pay attention to individual runs of the operational models, they will have flaws in them run to run, but look at the ensembles and their means and they will show you the way.  I found this map on PSU EWALL website, the models are 12z runs of the EURO, GFS and CMC from left to right.  They pretty much agree on ridging in Alaska, our -EPO/+PNA feature, along with a ridge in northern Greenland and some ridging in northeastern Canada west
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From Chicago to Michigan and the Central Great Lakes Winter Storm potential

A major winter storm is pegged to strike the Central US plains and the Central to western Great Lakes region later Sunday night through Tuesday of next week.  This is all a part of a large weather system powered by a central US trough, anchored by a large upper-level low-pressure center.  Large widespread snow amounts of 10-12" is possible especially in banding from MO to IL to MI.  More widespread amounts of 3-6" is likely in the region either side of the 10-12" isolated 14".  The system should
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-NAO block could lead to significant cold outbreak later next week

A rather potent -NAO block is occurring in our atmosphere in the Western Hemisphere this upcoming week into the weekend.  The GFS forecasts 850mb temps to be rather mediocre for intense Ocean Effect Snows, but with northerly winds at the surface through 850mb, there is a strong chance we could see ocean enhanced snowfall later next week, around the 30th of November into the weekend.  Stay tuned!
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-NAO leads to East Coast Winter Storm, potential exists in New England

12z EURO and EPS mean show potential for blocking pattern for an east coast snowstorm, with cold air present, and a coastal storm on the New England coastline, models show potential for winter weather on the 27-29th of November, this could be a long duration event, but it could be rain on the coast.  Right now specifics are not smart to forecast given its still 5 days away in time.  This is still an eternity.  However, models have flipped the pattern in the longer range to a less favorable patte
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Ocean Effect Snow Map coming in a few hours

I can finally say with confidence, after watching the models the last four days the minute this threat come up, we are going to have our first Ocean Effect Snow event this season.  After watching the model data come in today, I will watch the models tonight, and after the GFS comes to pass, I will update the snowfall map I expect for Thanksgiving, the key is accumulations are likely.  Stay tuned!
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Potential is increasing for a decent to substantial Ocean Effect snow event

Eastern Cape Cod, east of Hyannis, MA will receive the bulk of the snow threat.  Several inches is likely.  850mb temp to the surface of the ocean differential (Delta Ts) are around +30 to +32C, and this will provide the kind of instability that will lead to thundersnows.  This is what the Tug Hill Plateau sees and so does Buffalo with SW winds.  However, the Cape does well with NNW and N winds at the surface, if we get any convergence we will see a singular band producing 2-4"/hour snowfall rat
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White Thanksgiving????

Due to the presence of an -20C 850mb temp anomalies, we can expect the presence of ocean effect snow squalls, on NNW winds across most of the mid to outer Cape Cod, NWS BOX mentions 40% chance at snow over my head in Harwich, MA, and a chance at a few inches in localized areas.  Stay tuned!  As snow squalls, tomorrow night could also add to travel hazards.
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OES Event potentially looking white for Thanksgiving

Arctic front comes through the region by 00z Thursday, Wednesday evening around 7 pm, OES cloud streets develop several hours later as 850mb temps drop 30-40 C, around -20C by Thursday 12z (7am EST), where the OES machine should be in full force, over the ocean south of Nova Scotia the accumulations would bring 6-12" of snow over the water, but given we are close to land and need a northerly wind, that chances are we see more than .5" of snow is around 15%, snow chance around 40%, that includes
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