Roger Smith

Preliminary scoring for May 2024 ... scores are based on latest posted projections in previous post. late penalties to be added. ... FORECASTER ____________DCA_NYC_BOS_east_ORD_ATL_IAH_cent_c/e _ DEN_PHX_SEA_west___ TOTAL Roger Smith ______________60 _ 30 _ 20 __ 110 __ 80 _ 90 _100 __270 _380 _ 60 _100 _ 70 __230 ___ 610 Stormchaser Chuck ______70 _ 46 _ 34 __ 150 __100 _ 90 _ 98 __288 _438 _ 68 _ 90 _ 90 __248 ___ 686 wxallannj _________________86 _ 70 _ 54 __ 190 __ 72 _ 78 _ 94 __244 _434 _ 64 _ 92 _ 90 __246 ___ 680 RJay ______________________90 _ 68 _ 48 __ 206__ 60 _ 60 _ 90 __210 _416 _ 60 _ 100 _ 70 __230 ___646 Scotty Lightning __ (-1%) _90 _ 80 _ 70 __ 240 __ 40 _ 60 _ 80 __180 _420 _ 80 _100 _ 90 __ 270 __ 690 rainsucks _________________96 _ 80 _ 70 __ 246 __ 60 _ 60 _ 76 __196 _440 _ 70 _ 80 _ 70 __ 220 __ 660 BKViking ________(-2%) ___ 96 _ 74 _ 56 __ 226 __ 42 _ 52 _ 60 __154 _380 _ 90 _ 90 _ 80 __ 260 __ 640 ___ Consensus ____________98 _ 78 _ 56 __ 232 __ 50 _ 54 _ 80 __184 _ 416 _ 82 _ 92 _ 80 __ 254 __ 670 wxdude64 _______(-1%) ___98 _ 84 _ 68 __ 250 __ 38 _ 44 _ 78 __156 _ 406 _ 92 _ 70 _ 94 __ 256 __ 662 rhino16 ___________________100 _ 70 _ 48 __ 218 __ 34 _ 66 _ 62 __162 _ 380 _ 98 _ 96 _ 82 __ 276 __ 656 Tom ______________________100 _ 74 _ 56 __ 230 __ 56 _ 62 _ 68 __186 _ 416 _ 86 _ 94 _ 78 __ 258 __ 674 so_whats_happening _____ 94 _ 90 _ 72 __ 256 __ 36 _ 54 _ 78 __168 _ 424 _ 70 _ 86 _ 94 __ 250 __ 674 DonSutherland1 ___________92 _ 86 _ 68 __ 246 __ 36 _ 48 _ 68 __152 _398 _ 90 _ 90 _ 76 __ 256 __ 654 hudsonvalley21 ___________ 88 _ 90 _ 54 __ 232 __ 64 _ 56 _ 78 __198 _430 _ 84 _ 86 _ 66 __ 236 __ 666 RodneyS __________________86 _ 96 _100 __ 282 __ 06 _ 52 _ 82 __ 140 _422 _ 98 _ 74 _ 92 __ 264 __ 686 ___ Normal ________________ 70 _ 90 _ 90 __ 250 __ 20 _ 30 _ 50 __100 _350_ 100 _ 80 _ 90 __ 270 __ 620 Persistence (Apr 2024)___ 84 _ 72 _ 86 __ 242 __ 80 _ 74 _ 94 __ 248 _490 _ 46 _ 96 _ 88 __ 230 __ 720 =========================== will leave extreme forecasts and best scores until final results, all scores are very close and so far all are below Persistence but above Normal for all but one. ... ... annual update will follow near end of scoring.

First look at anomalies and projections ... ________________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _ATL _IAH ___ DEN _PHX _SEA anom to 15 ______ +1.1 __ -0.4 __ -1.4 ____ +4.5 _ +3.9 _ +2.1 ____ -1.2 _ +1.4 _ +0.9 p anom (31) _____ +1.5 __ +0.5 _ -0.5 ____ +4.0 _ +3.5 _ +2.5 _____ 0.0 _ +1.0 _ -0.5 (16) Projections are based on a slight warming trend in northeast, continued warm regime central and southeast, near normal (variable) west.

24/11/4

Any clearing in store for you later (after midnite possibly)? Western Europe seeing major (historic) display of aurora borealis (now). Clear out west, but six hours to dark skies.

Probably a final report but could be edited for DEN, cannot affect outcome as RodneyS has more to spare at DEN than anyone else. Congrats to RodneyS (subject to final verification). DonS second and hudsonvalley21 third. *** __ 2023-2024 Winter Snowfall Contest __ *** Forecaster ___________________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ DTW _ BUF ____ DEN _ SEA _ BTV wxdude64 ____________________________22.9 _ 30.2 _ 44.6 __ 22.2 _ 31.5 _ 88.3 ___ 54.3 __ 7.8 __ 71.4 RJay _________________________________ 22.0 _ 30.0 _ 44.0 __ 20.0 _ 25.0 _ 99.0 ___ 61.0 __ 4.0 __ 80.0 BKViking _____________________________ 19.0 _ 28.0 _ 37.0 __ 20.0 _ 17.0 __ 95.0 ___ 59.0 __ 4.1 __ 86.0 wxallannj _____________________________ 19.0 _ 27.0 _ 30.0 __ 38.0 _ 35.0 _ 97.0 ___ 41.0 __ 9.0 __ 75.0 Tom ___________________________________18.7 _ 32.6 _ 44.7 __ 37.2 _ 34.6 _ 97.8 ___ 51.6 __ 4.1 __ 73.2 Roger Smith __________________________ 18.5 _ 33.8 _ 54.1 __ 40.3 _ 48.4 _ 89.2 ___ 45.0 __ 3.0 __79.3 ___ Consensus ____ (median) __________18.5 _ 27.0 _ 37.0 __ 30.0 _ 34.5 _ 89.2 ___ 54.3 __ 4.1 __ 77.0 so_whats_happening __________________18.0 _ 26.0 _ 41.0 __ 28.0 _ 35.0 _ 78.0 ___ 40.0 __ 7.0 __ 87.0 Scotty Lightning ______________________ 16.0 _ 21.0 _ 33.0 __ 43.0 _ 31.0 _103.0 ___ 41.0 __ 5.0 __ 86.0 hudsonvalley21 _______________________ 12.0 _ 31.0 _ 30.5 __ 33.5 _ 32.5 _ 68.5 ___ 59.5 __ 5.5 __ 77.0 DonSutherland1 _______________________ 11.5 _ 15.0 _ 27.5 ___27.0 _ 38.5 _ 85.0 ___ 56.5 __ 1.2 ___70.0 RodneyS _______________________________ 6.7 _ 12.9 _ 24.3 __ 30.0 _ 34.5 _ 79.9 ___ 65.4 __ 3.9 __ 64.3 Snowfall to date _ (05-07) ____________ 8.0 __ 7.5 ___ 9.8 ___ 22.2 _ 23.5 _ 71.3 ___ 44.6 ___0.3 __ 60.8 ------------------------------------- Snowfall errors to date (in most cases, error is an overprediction and can be reduced by future snowfall, exceptions are underlined and these errors can increase) ... Forecaster ___________________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ DTW _ BUF __ DEN _ SEA _ BTV ___ Total (rank) RodneyS _______________________________ 1.3 __ 5.4 _ 14.5 ___ 7.8 __ 11.0 __ 8.6 ____20.8 __ 3.6 __ 3.5____ 76.5 (1) DonSutherland1 ________________________3.5 __ 7.5 __ 17.7 ___ 4.8 _ 15.0 _ 13.7 ____ 11.9 __ 0.9 ___ 9.2____ 84.2 (2) hudsonvalley21 ________________________ 4.0 _ 23.5 _ 20.7 __ 11.3 __ 9.0 _ 2.8 _____ 14.9 __ 5.2 __16.2 ___ 107.6 (3) so_whats_happening __________________10.0 _ 18.5 _ 31.2 ___ 5.8 _ 11.5 ___ 6.7 ____ 4.6 __ 6.7 __ 26.2 ___ 121.2 (4) ___ Consensus ____ (median) __________10.5 _ 19.5 _ 27.2 ___ 7.8 _ 11.0 __ 17.9 ____ 9.7 __ 3.8 __ 16.2 ___ 123.6 (4.6) wxdude64 ____________________________14.9 _ 22.7 _ 34.8 ___ 0.0 __ 8.0 _ 17.0 ____ 9.7 __ 7.5 __ 10.6 ___ 125.2 (5) wxallannj _____________________________ 11.0 _ 19.5 _ 20.2 __ 15.8 _ 11.5 __ 25.7 ____3.6 __ 8.7 __ 14.2 ___ 130.2 (6) BKViking _____________________________ 11.0 _ 20.5 _ 27.2 ___ 2.2 __ 6.5 __ 23.7 __ 14.4 __ 3.8 __ 25.2 ___ 134.5 (7) Scotty Lightning _______________________ 8.0 _ 13.5 _ 23.2 __ 20.8 __7.5 __31.7 ____ 3.6 __ 4.7 __ 25.2 ___ 138.2 (8) RJay __________________________________ 14.0 _ 22.5 _ 34.2 ___ 2.2 __ 1.5 _ 27.7 ___ 16.4 __ 3.7 __ 19.2 ___ 141.4 (9) Tom ___________________________________ 10.7 _ 25.1 _ 34.9 __ 15.0 _ 11.1 __ 26.5 ___ 7.0 __ 3.8 __ 12.4 ___ 146.5 (10) Roger Smith ___________________________ 10.5 _ 26.3 _ 44.3 __ 18.1 _24.9 _ 17.9 ____ 0.4 __ 2.7 __ 18.5 ___ 163.6 (11) ======================================

As always, predict the highest temperatures to be expected this summer at the four airports: DCA IAD BWI RIC and I will start the ball rolling with 103, 105, 106 and 107. Contest deadline 06z June 15 2024 Tie-breaker details: lowest errors break ties, order of entry the last level separating ties For example, 0 1 1 1 beats 0 1 2 0. ... 2 1 1 1 beats 2 2 1 0. ... June 2nd beats June 4th. ___ DEFENDING 2023 WINNER: WEATHER53 ___

It's that time again ... enter your forecast for seasonal totals of storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes (in the North Atlantic basin) ... using NOAA official counts as our contest guide. Include any named storms already in the books by June 1st in your total (as of now, count is 0/0/0). 1991-2020 average values 14/7/3 ... 2024 seasonal forecasts from various experts average 22/11/5 (so far). I will include a few of these as of June 1st as non-entries for ranking against our forecasts (without changing our contest ranks). I may extend the entry deadline based on the situation on June 1st and the number of entries. You can edit or revise any entries up to final deadline, no need to bring attention to edits as I won't be trying to create a table of entries until deadline is passed. Boards.ie weather forum and Net-weather (UK) will be invited to participate. Ranks will be provided (a) over all entries and (b) within forums, or fora if anyone here is a Latin purist. Good luck !

In Las Vegas (waiting for flight), strong sun makes 90 feel like 125. Supposed to be strong winds by 6 or 7 p m, hoping to be airborne before they do a ground stop.

Table of forecasts for May 2024 FORECASTER _____________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _ATL _IAH ___ DEN _PHX _SEA Roger Smith ______________+3.5 _+4.0 _+3.5 __ +3.0 _+3.0 _+2.5 __ +2.0 _ +1.0 _ +1.0 Stormchaser Chuck ______+3.0 _+3.2 _+2.8 __ +4.0 _+3.0 _+2.4 __ +1.6 _+0.5 __ 0.0 wxallannj _________________ +2.2 _+2.0 _+1.8 __ +2.6 _+2.4 _+2.8 __ +1.8 _+0.6 _ -1.0 RJay ______________________+2.0 _+2.1 _+2.1 __ +2.0 _ +1.5 _ +2.0 __ +2.0 _+1.0 _ +1.0 Scotty Lightning __ (-1%) _+2.0 _+1.5 _+1.0 __ +1.0 _ +1.5 _ +1.5 __ +1.0 _ +1.0 __ 0.0 rainsucks _________________+1.7 _ +1.5 _ +1.0 __ +2.0 _ +1.5 _ +1.3 ___+1.5 __0.0 _ +1.0 BKViking ________(-2%) ____+1.6 _ +1.8 _ +1.7 __ +1.1 _ +1.1 _ +0.5 __ +0.5 _+0.5 _+0.5 ___ Consensus ____________ +1.6 _ +1.6 _ +1.7 __ +1.5 _+1.2 _+1.5 __ +0.9 _+0.6 _+0.5 wxdude64 _______(-1%) ____+1.6 _ +1.3 _ +1.1 __ +0.9 _+0.7 _+1.4 __ +0.4 _ -0.5 _-0.8 rhino16 ___________________ +1.5 _ +2.0 _ +2.1 __ +0.7 _+1.8 _ +0.6 __ +0.1 _+1.2 _+0.4 Tom _______________________+1.5 _ +1.7 _ +1.7 __ +1.8 _ +1.6 _+0.9 __ +0.7 _+0.7 _+0.6 so_whats_happening ______+1.2 _ +1.0 _+0.9 __ +0.8 _ +1.2 _+1.4 __ +1.5 _ +0.3 _-0.2 DonSutherland1 ___________+1.1 _ +1.2 _ +1.1 __ +0.8 _ +0.9 _ +0.9 __ +0.5 _+0.5 _+0.7 hudsonvalley21 ___________+0.9 _ +1.0 _ +1.8 __ +2.2 _ +1.3 _ +1.4 __ +0.8 _+0.3 _+1.2 RodneyS __________________+0.8 _+0.3 _ -0.5 __ -0.7 _ +1.1 _ +1.6 ___ -0.1 _ -0.3 _ -0.9 ___ Normal ________________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 Persistence (Apr 2024)___+2.3 _ +1.9 _+0.2 ___+3.0 _+2.2_+2.8 ____+2.7 _+0.8 _-1.1 ___________________________________ Normal lowest for DCA, ATL, IAH.

Quickly finished scoring updates, they will need quality control when I have a chance, scoring generally very high for April, several over 700 and two over 770. Enjoying trip to Utah and will be flying back to BC on 4th.

+3.5 _ +4.0 _ +3.5 _ +3.0 _ +3.0 _ +2.5 _ +2.0 _ +1.0 _ +1.0

Jacob Lake AZ north of Grand Canyon at 8,000' elevation had about 2-3" new snow late Friday, we drove through that area Saturday and it was barely above freezing but at lower elevations it was 55-60 F with a few leftover rain showers and sunny breaks. It has cleared out totally now in Kanab UT and looking for 70-75 F highs on Sunday. Saw two rare condors near Lees Ferry AZ, nine foot wingspans, prehistoric looking.

On vacation in Las Vegas and s Utah since Tuesday, gradual cooling trend ended with rain and gusty winds today, hot to warm to very cool, now just 40F at Kanab, UT (was 90F on Tues in Vegas). Both LAS and SLC set daily rainfall records, at 0.23" Vegas to 0.82" SLC. I think gradient of rainfall in between was fairly linear so about 0.4" fell in parts of s Utah. It is the first significant rain in Vegas and s UT since winter ended but the wet winter resulted in very good desert blooming, saw lots of flowering cactus on display at Desert National Wildlife Refuge located about ten miles north of Vegas outer suburbs on US95, if you get a chance it's a very interesting area, as is nearby Red Rock Canyon and Fire Valley State Park. Going to various national parks in UT now but in most cases have visited before so we know what to expect (life elevated).

Predict temp anomalies for nine locations (F deg relative to 1991-2020 averages) ... DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA Deadline is 06z May 1st (early Wednesday in EDT)

<<<< ===[]===[] .......... ==== Annual scoring for Jan-Apr 2024 ==== ..........[]===[]=== >>>> wxallannj _______________ 294 _274 _294 __ 862 __246 _316 _218 __780 _1642 __294 _368 _342 _1004____ 2646 rainsucks _______________352 _358 _276 __986__ 243 _274 _234 __ 751 _1737 __174 _302 _284 __ 760 ____ 2497 ___ Consensus _________ 268 _250_276 __794 __266_288 _218 __772 _1566 __208 _344 _324 __876____ 2442 DonSutherland1 ________284 _292 _294 __ 870 __ 284 _268 _180 __ 732 _1602 __248 _310 _262 __820 ____ 2422 RJay ____________________291 _298 _249 __ 838 __257 _282 _174 __ 713 _1551 __ 238 _309 _295 __838 ____ 2393 (2440)* so_whats_happening ___ 258 _256 _288 __ 802 __279 _256 _166 __ 701 _1503 __244 _290 _318 __852 ____ 2355 hudsonvalley21 _________278 _204 _222 __ 704 __254 _286 _250 __ 790 _1494 __216 _276 _298 __790 ____ 2284 BKViking ________________272 _250 _284 __ 806 __204 _260 _194 __ 658 _1464 __194 _328 _294 __816 ____ 2280 RodneyS ________________162 _236 _282 __ 680 __193 _216 _230 __ 639 _ 1319 __ 262 _284 _316 __862 ____ 2181 Tom _____________________218 _198 _226 __ 642 __198 _256 _206 __ 660 _1302 __ 170 _314 _312 __ 796 ____ 2098 Scotty Lightning ________214 _156 _ 188 __ 558 __148 _292 _236 __ 676 _1234 __ 214 _292 _330 __836 ____ 2070 Roger Smith _____________224 _202 _136 __ 562 __244 _267 _218 __729 _ 1291 __184 _290 _230 __ 704 ____ 1995 wxdude64 _______________160 _170 _236 __ 566 __190 _208 _154 __ 552 _ 1118 __ 226 _310 _302 __ 838 ____ 1956 Normal __________________134 _ 112 _ 190 __ 436 __ 118 _226 _146 __490 _ 926 __ 174 _310 _350 __ 834 ____ 1760 Persistence _____________ 282 _244 _282 __ 808 __ 070 _224 _174 __464 _ 1272 _ 042 _156 _256 __ 454 ____ 1726 Stormchaser Chuck (2/4)_68 _ 98 _ 128 __ 294 __ 110 _ 00 _ 00 ___ 110 __ 404 ___ 62 _ 190 _ 136 __ 388 ____ 792 Rhino16 (2/4) ____________ 50 _ 22 _ 36 ___ 108 __ 103 _118 _ 56 ___ 277 __ 385 ___ 48 _ 158 _ 156 __ 362 ____ 747 * (note: tracking RJay raw score before Feb late penalty of 47 pts ... at current scoring, would affect ranks by two positions) ----------------------------------- Best forecasts * tied wins (one per * ) ^ 3 forecasters tied (plus Consensus and normal -- 4 for SEA for 2024-03 and PHX for April) FORECASTER ___________DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent _ c/e _ DEN_PHX_SEA__west___ TOTAL wxallannj ________________1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____ 0 ____ 2** __ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 2*___1 ____ 2 ______ 0 rainsucks _______________ 2 ___ 3 ___ 2 ____ 2 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 1 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1^ ___ 0 ____ 0 ______ 1 _ Feb ___ Consensus _________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 1 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1^____ 0 _____ 0 DonSutherland1 _________0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 2* ___ 1 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1^____ 0 ______ 0 RJay _____________________0 ___ 1*___ 0 ____ 1*____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1^ ____1 ______ 1 _ Mar so_whats_happening ____0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1*____ 0 ______ 0 hudsonvalley21 _________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 2**__ 1*___ 3 ____ 1 ____ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1*____ 0 ______ 0 BKViking ________________ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1^___ 0 ____ 0 ______0 RodneyS ________________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1*___ 0 ____ 1 ______ 1 _ Jan Tom _____________________ 0 ___ 1* __ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1^___ 0 ____ 0 ______ 0 Scotty Lightning _________0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1*___ 1^____ 0 ______ 0 Roger Smith _____________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1*___ 1 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1^___ 0 ____ 1 ______ 1 _Apr wxdude64 _______________0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ______ 0 Normal __________________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1^____ 0 ______ 0 Stormchaser Chuck _____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1*___ 0 ____0 ______ 0 Rhino16 _________________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____ 0 ______ 0 EXTREmE FORECAST REPORT so far, a total of 22 qualified (18 for warmest, 4 for coldest) ... Jan 2-2, Feb 8-0, Mar 4-0, Apr 4-2. * tied for a win or loss, scores adjusted in final col. (April provisional, to be adjusted) FORECASTER _______________ Jan _ Feb _ Mar _ Apr ___ TOTAL __ adj for ties rainsucks ____________________ 2-0 _ 4-0 _ 2-0 _ 0-2* ___8-2 ___8.0 - 1.5 hudsonvalley21 ______________ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 3**-0__ 4-0 ___ 3.0 - 0 wxallannj _____________________0-0 _ 1*-0_ 0-0 _ 2*-1 __ 3-1 ___ 2.0 - 1 Roger Smith __________________0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-1 _ 2*-1 ___ 3-2 ___ 2.5 - 2 Scotty Lightning _____________ 0-0 _ 2*-0_0-0 _ 0-0 ___ 2-0 ___ 1.5 - 0 RodneyS _____________________ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-0 ___ 2-0 wxdude64 ___________________ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 ___ 1-0 DonSutherland1 ______________0-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 ___ 1-0 ___ Normal ___________________ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-1 ___ 1-1 RJay _________________________ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-2 _ 0-0 ___ 1-2 BKViking _____________________ 0-0 _ 0-1 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 ___ 0-1 Stormchaser Chuck __________0-2 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 ___ 0-2 Tom, Rhino16, swh _____________ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 ___ 0-0