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Spartman

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KDAY
  • Location:
    Germantown, Ohio

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  1. This was the 2nd completely dry weekend for 2024.
  2. It looks like at least the first half of this month will be a washout. #april2011redux
  3. White on that map JB posted actually represents completely overcast. Euro is caving to the GFS.
  4. NWS really got hijacked by trolls on social media over that.
  5. Accuweather: https://www.accuweather.com/en/solar-eclipse-2024/total-solar-eclipse-cloud-forecast-where-will-clouds-spoil-the-show/1636042
  6. NWS IND .CLIMATE... Issued at 300 PM EDT Mon Apr 1 2024 It is now about a week out from eclipse day and as stated in previous iterations of this discussion, a few signals can be deciphered from long range guidance. As mentioned in the discussion above, a deepening/occluding low pressure system is anticipated to develop over the eastern US. As this low deepens, it should act to bottle up the upstream wave pattern. This can be seen in guidance as a deepening trough over the western US. It`s this trough that could be the determining factor as to what kind of weather we see on Monday April 8th. Taking a step back, global teleconnections show strongly negative phases in both the NAO and AO. This means that the synoptic scale will dictate our weather going forward, and with a very strong and occluded low over the east coast...it is likely that the position and longevity of this system will determine the evolution of the west coast trough. Latest ensemble guidance depicts both the eastern and western troughs becoming highly amplified with an increasingly squeezed ridge in between. A flow pattern similar to a classic omega block looks to take shape by Friday. With strongly negative teleconnections, a pattern featuring blocking is not a surprise. Guidance begins to diverge over the weekend as models struggle to depict how the aforementioned features interact within the bottled up flow. Guidance typically struggles in blocking patterns, and can be too fast with synoptic-scale features. This can be seen in recent trends with today`s system that has been gradually shifting westward with time. It`s tough to downscale this pattern into a cloud cover forecast for the 8th. The primary questions are how much does the occluded east coast low affect the upstream pattern, and in what form the western trough ejects eastward. As guidance comes into greater consensus, the answers to these questions will likewise come into focus. Stay tuned for further updates. Might as well stick a fork in seeing the eclipse on Monday
  7. Only got 0.02" of rain tonight. This March ends up with below-normal rainfall for the month, but April looks to be a different story. Also a warm March, but not warm enough to be one of the top 10 warmest.
  8. It'll be mild for the first couple of days before chilly temperatures return for the rest of the week, despite a wet start to the month. Other than that, it looks like a pretty dreary stretch until the pattern breaks.
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