JoMo Posted July 24, 2014 Share Posted July 24, 2014 The most recent run of the CFS v2 is cold for Dec, Jan and warmer for Feb (however, this is the CFS after all). The December 500 MB pattern it's depicting is much like last year, with the ridging over Alaska and up into the Arctic. In January, the ridging shifts to central Canada. In Feb the ridging shifts back to western Canada up into the Arctic. This is usually 'cold' for the eastern US. The wildcard is the strength and location of the trough off the west coast. The farther west it is, the better, otherwise it will flood the US with Pacific air. That had been what the model was showing until recently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted July 24, 2014 Share Posted July 24, 2014 The most recent run of the CFS v2 is cold for Dec, Jan and warmer for Feb (however, this is the CFS after all). The December 500 MB pattern it's depicting is much like last year, with the ridging over Alaska and up into the Arctic. In January, the ridging shifts to central Canada. In Feb the ridging shifts back to western Canada up into the Arctic. This is usually 'cold' for the eastern US. The wildcard is the strength and location of the trough off the west coast. The farther west it is, the better, otherwise it will flood the US with Pacific air. That had been what the model was showing until recently. Awesome. Thank you for the update! I don't know if the ridge would be able to come that far inland or not. They tried to model that several times early last year didn't they? At any rate, wouldn't it be awesome if it moved to the west? Or relaxed to the south slightly? Anyway, yeah, it is the CFS. Lol.Just read and article of great interest about the winter of 1917-18. It was called The old fashioned winter of 1917-18. It was neat to read it as a history of that year from August through the winter. The part that was the most amazing to me is the line where it mentions 4 foot deep snow over the Ozark Plateau. If that doesn't catch a fella's interest, nothing will. Lol. Worth a read through. You can google it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted July 25, 2014 Share Posted July 25, 2014 Look at the warm anomalies off the SE Coast. This may help promote a ridge that could possibly throw a monkey wrench into forecasts. Sort of like 09-10, which featured some Southern snows and big East Coast events, but they would quickly moderate afterwards. A southeast ridge usually is a stranglehold during La Nina winters, but I'm not currently expecting it to be a permanent feature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted July 25, 2014 Share Posted July 25, 2014 Look at the warm anomalies off the SE Coast. This may help promote a ridge that could possibly throw a monkey wrench into forecasts. Sort of like 09-10, which featured some Southern snows and big East Coast events, but they would quickly moderate afterwards. A southeast ridge usually is a stranglehold during La Nina winters, but I'm not currently expecting it to be a permanent feature. Yeah. Definitely noteworthy. It will take a little time to see what happens there as the fall/winter pattern sets up. Currently of little concern here. I think the east coast may be a little worried that their snow season may be in jeopardy over it. We'll just have to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 Strange...the CFSv2 shows above normal temps for most of North America but below normal temps for Alaska come December. Almost a reversal of last year. We shall see. January shows cooler than normal temps across the Southern Plains and Mid/Lower Mississippi River Valley. That's something more in line with what I'm thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 I don't like either map 100 percent either. Looking back at this year so far, particularly this summer, it has been a whole lot like 2009 in terms of persistent frontal passages and cool downs throughout the summer. With yet another front set to pass through in the next day, I can only assume we will end up like 09-10 winter. I'm not sure what the CFS forecast was that year, but I'm guessing that at this long of a lead that it was a definite bust. I'll look back through some old climate stuff and study some more over the next couple of days. I think summer may already be on the ropes though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted July 28, 2014 Share Posted July 28, 2014 The CFS v2 flipped back warm in the above run because it had troughing near Alaska instead of ridging. We still have months to go before it all comes into better focus so things will oscillate, especially with the CFS v2 which isn't that great of a model when it comes to long range forecasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted July 28, 2014 Share Posted July 28, 2014 The CFS v2 flipped back warm in the above run because it had troughing near Alaska instead of ridging. We still have months to go before it all comes into better focus so things will oscillate, especially with the CFS v2 which isn't that great of a model when it comes to long range forecasting. ^^^ !!! What he said. Lol. Exactly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted July 30, 2014 Share Posted July 30, 2014 Pacific ssts starting to look like crap. Lots of cold water surfacing in places we don't want it to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted July 31, 2014 Share Posted July 31, 2014 NWS Litte Rock office reporting today that July will end up being one of the coldest on record for their area. Interesting stuff. Less than 30 days until college football season kicks off. I don't care what the actual calendar says, when football starts it's fall!!!! Go Hogs!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted July 31, 2014 Share Posted July 31, 2014 NWS Litte Rock office reporting today that July will end up being one of the coldest on record for their area. Interesting stuff. Less than 30 days until college football season kicks off. I don't care what the actual calendar says, when football starts it's fall!!!! Go Hogs!!! I can agree with everything you said except that last part. Lol. Go sooners! Boomer!!! :-) NFL preseason starts Monday night if that counts for anything. :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted July 31, 2014 Share Posted July 31, 2014 Joe D'aleo had an interesting blog today. The thinking really hasn't changed. We'll have to really see what happens around Sept-Oct to get a good grasp on what winter might be like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted July 31, 2014 Share Posted July 31, 2014 Any way you could link that blog? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted July 31, 2014 Share Posted July 31, 2014 Pacific ssts starting to look like crap. Lots of cold water surfacing in places we don't want it to. I wouldn't be too worried. Looks like some downwelling is occurring in the WPAC which is probably the start of another EKW. A weak Nino means a decent STJ. Often strong Ninos moderate the temps somewhat across the South. I think the biggest thing to look for is the EPO, NAO, and AO. -EPO and -AO are to send the cold south and -NAO to lock it in. Last year was very cold but very progressive. We'd moderate every few days afterward. I can agree with everything you said except that last part. Lol. Go sooners! Boomer!!! :-) NFL preseason starts Monday night if that counts for anything. :-) Anyone but the Sooners...I'm still bitter after the last Sugarbowl. Roll Tide! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted August 1, 2014 Share Posted August 1, 2014 I wouldn't be too worried. Looks like some downwelling is occurring in the WPAC which is probably the start of another EKW. A weak Nino means a decent STJ. Often strong Ninos moderate the temps somewhat across the South. I think the biggest thing to look for is the EPO, NAO, and AO. -EPO and -AO are to send the cold south and -NAO to lock it in. Last year was very cold but very progressive. We'd moderate every few days afterward. Anyone but the Sooners...I'm still bitter after the last Sugarbowl. Roll Tide! Yeah, I hated the quick moderation. You take 5 days at 60 degrees plus out of last winter and it would be a much colder winter overall. I still can't believe it made the top 5 coldest for Fayetteville. Impressive to say the least. I want a long duration cold and snow covered winter.That was truly a great game. You have to admit it. I hope to see another one just like it this year for a REAL championship. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted August 1, 2014 Share Posted August 1, 2014 Any way you could link that blog? Nah, it's a pay site. He was going over the QBO and solar factors and which years were most similar and what they looked like as a composite. It was cold over much of the nation except the far northern tier... Northern Montana, North Dakota.. that area. The coldest was over the SE US. In other news, Euro is still going with a strong Alaskan ridge again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted August 1, 2014 Share Posted August 1, 2014 Ok. Thanks man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted August 4, 2014 Share Posted August 4, 2014 Hello all long time no see (so to speak). Took an extended break to get my move to AR complete and things are settling in for me now in my new town. Been an interesting summer for sure. I'm certainly ready for fall weather and football. I agree with Waterboy down here and I'll throw in my Pig Sooie for my favorite team. We're certainly hoping for better things than what everybody is expecting! Looking forward to more positive news on the winter as well. Everybody take care and enjoy the dwindling days of summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted August 5, 2014 Share Posted August 5, 2014 Hello all long time no see (so to speak). Took an extended break to get my move to AR complete and things are settling in for me now in my new town. Been an interesting summer for sure. I'm certainly ready for fall weather and football. I agree with Waterboy down here and I'll throw in my Pig Sooie for my favorite team. We're certainly hoping for better things than what everybody is expecting! Looking forward to more positive news on the winter as well. Everybody take care and enjoy the dwindling days of summer. Hey man, I'm excited for football season as well, even though I think my Chiefs will probably not do as well as last year. So you're down by Rogers/Bentonville now eh? That means Monett will get a record amount of snow this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted August 5, 2014 Share Posted August 5, 2014 Hello all long time no see (so to speak). Took an extended break to get my move to AR complete and things are settling in for me now in my new town. Been an interesting summer for sure. I'm certainly ready for fall weather and football. I agree with Waterboy down here and I'll throw in my Pig Sooie for my favorite team. We're certainly hoping for better things than what everybody is expecting! Looking forward to more positive news on the winter as well. Everybody take care and enjoy the dwindling days of summer. Welcome back man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted August 5, 2014 Share Posted August 5, 2014 Welcome back man. Tks man. Hope to be more regular on here again now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted August 5, 2014 Share Posted August 5, 2014 Hey man, I'm excited for football season as well, even though I think my Chiefs will probably not do as well as last year. So you're down by Rogers/Bentonville now eh? That means Monett will get a record amount of snow this year.Yes my move can only be good news for you and the crew up in SW MO this winter. Everytime I leave a town they get a record snow the following winter lol. Maybe I'm just a bad jinx with the snow thing. And yeah I'm actually right next door to both Rogers and Bentonville take your pick. I love it here so far. Kinda my old stomping grounds anyway so all is good for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted August 5, 2014 Share Posted August 5, 2014 Tks man. Hope to be more regular on here again now. Awesome. I'll be glad when it gets closer to winter and all the other regulars are back too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted August 10, 2014 Share Posted August 10, 2014 JB and Joe D says that things are progressing as expected in regard to the forecast they released back in April. The new Euro seasonal from a few days back looks pretty much exactly like what they were forecasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted August 18, 2014 Share Posted August 18, 2014 August JAMSTEC is out. NE Pacific warm pool and El-Nino still there. Temps = Cold. Precip = normal to slightly above (Arkansas) http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frsgc/research/d1/iod/sintex_f1_forecast.html.en Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted August 19, 2014 Share Posted August 19, 2014 Thanks JoMo. I guess we're officially easing our way into the patternless time between the seasons. Can't wait to see the new pattern start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted August 21, 2014 Share Posted August 21, 2014 Joe B posted this on his twitter: On the bottom right is their winter DJF forecast temps that they have had since April, and on the bottom left is the August JAMSTEC for same period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted August 21, 2014 Share Posted August 21, 2014 I guess he's right on the money. I wouldn't mind seeing the core of the winter cold shifted to the west just a tad bit but we'll have to wait and see if a southeast ridge develops or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted August 22, 2014 Share Posted August 22, 2014 Mid-August ENSO plumes are out. Looks like a weak El-Nino. At least no La Nina conditions forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted August 22, 2014 Share Posted August 22, 2014 Good to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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