HurricaneJosh Posted January 27, 2011 Author Share Posted January 27, 2011 Lots going on today. Anthony is still on track to redevelop tomorrow or Saturday. Still expecting landfall near Townsville as a TS Sunday or Monday. Bianca is producing gales at Exmouth. Looks like it will head to Perth over the weekend, but obviously not very strong. Wilma is weakening but will become a major XT storm once it passes the North Island. The monster for next week is still on track. All models are still showing a major landfall somewhere along the QLD coast late next week. Thanks for the nice summary-at-a-glance-- very helpful. Re: the last item... It's giving me a slight chase tingle-- although I am so d*mn busy with work right now, it would be baaaaaad to disappear for three days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 27, 2011 Author Share Posted January 27, 2011 Hey, can anyone get on the JTWC site? It hasn't been working for me today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Hasn't been online since I tried at 10z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 27, 2011 Author Share Posted January 27, 2011 Hasn't been online since I tried at 10z OK, thx. I thought maybe I was being blocked because my IP address is in Eastern Europe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 27, 2011 Author Share Posted January 27, 2011 The JTWC site is back up, but the warnings are all ancient. I guess they need to update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 too bad she isn't just a little closer to the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 ghostly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 The SH has finally been racking up the ACE pretty well during the last few weeks but is still a little behind overall. Hopefully next week's monster will boost things up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 28, 2011 Author Share Posted January 28, 2011 Anthony's a cyclone again-- and the BoM has it coming ashore near Townsville with winds of 60 kt (10-min)-- a high-end Cat 2 on their scale and a low-end (70-kt (1-min)) hurricane on ours. Interestingly, this is exactly the scenario that Adam forecast a couple of days ago. Nice going! In other news... Bianca is still a strong cyclone rounding the W flank of the continent. It should recurve to the SE and accelerate ashore near Perth in a couple of days as it rapidly weakens. For this reason, Perth is under a Cyclone Watch: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 SATCON has Bianca at 93 kt (1-min), BOM has Bianca at 85 kt (10-min). JTWC has Bianca at 115 kt (1-min). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 SATCON has Bianca at 93 kt (1-min), BOM has Bianca at 85 kt (10-min). JTWC has Bianca at 115 kt (1-min). Why Australia does not have some sort of recon flights into tropicals I have no idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 28, 2011 Author Share Posted January 28, 2011 SATCON has Bianca at 93 kt (1-min), BOM has Bianca at 85 kt (10-min). JTWC has Bianca at 115 kt (1-min). Crazy. By the way, how are you getting the latest from the JTWC? Even when I refresh, the latest I get is 18Z yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Crazy. By the way, how are you getting the latest from the JTWC? Even when I refresh, the latest I get is 18Z yesterday. Go the the NRL page and bring up the latest IR shot. Above the image you'll see: 20110128.1100.meteo7.x.ir1km.10SBIANCA.115kts-937mb-238S-1087E.100pc.jpg That tells you the position and intensity at 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 28, 2011 Author Share Posted January 28, 2011 Go the the NRL page and bring up the latest IR shot. Above the image you'll see: 20110128.1100.meteo7.x.ir1km.10SBIANCA.115kts-937mb-238S-1087E.100pc.jpg That tells you the position and intensity at 6z. Ah, forgot about that. I wonder what's up with the JTWC site. It's been down or very out-of-date the last couple of days. They better get it together in time for next week's big Queensland cyclone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alby_14 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Gday peoples. Ive been a snob of late sorry. Caught up with xmas duties, then wedding in New Zealand duties,then working in the bush duties, and my NAC forum duties of course. Sounds like something out of Napolean Dynamite. Interesting times! Thats stating the obvious.... Solid TC off the WA coast, a weak and confused storm wandering between QLD and the South Pacific, a potential severe TC screaming in to QLD from the SP after the initial confusion, and who knows what afterwards! After a slow start, things are looking interesting. If one were chasing in QLD, one could potentially intercept a weak/blustery TC followed by a strong Coral Sea cruiser. How is Prague Josh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoastLow Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Will be interesting if Bianca comes ashore near Perth, that hasn't happened in a very long time indeed. They'll love the rain. Anthony's remains look good for something half decent to me, although I hope it stays a fair way north, the southern half of Queensland is still quite saturated from serious rain events over the new year and a cyclone would fill water ways very quickly. The other one way out to sea, this basin is too fickle for me to get excited about it yet! This site: http://pmofnz.blogspot.com/2010/04/cyclone-giselle-42-years-on.html claims Giselle became involved with a southern ocean storm, which would explain the severity as southern ocean storms/fronts can be bad in their own right. New Zealand's location means they regularly get this sort of storm, but it would be a little unusual in April as that sort of weather pattern is a mid to late winter sort of thing. Giselle has piqued my interest, I didn't know the storm was involved with the loss of the Wahine, so I am going to chase this one up as much as I can. Why Australia does not have some sort of recon flights into tropicals I have no idea. That's easy, we don't have the budget to run something like NASA. Our military is also not over funded as yours is either (nothing meant by that, it's just what it is), so we can't rely on them to do it. As an example, our P3's are all on life extension programmes, so their flying time is used carefully. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 28, 2011 Author Share Posted January 28, 2011 Gday peoples. Ive been a snob of late sorry. Caught up with xmas duties, then wedding in New Zealand duties,then working in the bush duties, and my NAC forum duties of course. Sounds like something out of Napolean Dynamite. Interesting times! Thats stating the obvious.... Solid TC off the WA coast, a weak and confused storm wandering between QLD and the South Pacific, a potential severe TC screaming in to QLD from the SP after the initial confusion, and who knows what afterwards! After a slow start, things are looking interesting. If one were chasing in QLD, one could potentially intercept a weak/blustery TC followed by a strong Coral Sea cruiser. How is Prague Josh? Don't tease me like that. How's it going, Stephen? Nice to see you dropping by! So... What do you think of the potential QLD cyclone next week? We've been talking about it here-- how the models have been showing it. What are folks saying at NAC, etc.? Would you chase it if it were another Larry...? P.S. Prague is cold and wretched, of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 28, 2011 Author Share Posted January 28, 2011 That's easy, we don't have the budget to run something like NASA. Our military is also not over funded as yours is either (nothing meant by that, it's just what it is), so we can't rely on them to do it. As an example, our P3's are all on life extension programmes, so their flying time is used carefully. Whatever the reason, it would be so excellent to have more data Re: the cyclones in your region. We've seen in our basin that satellite intensity estimates can only be so accurate. (For example, last year, our Hurricane Alex (in the Gulf of Mexico) looked much more intense than what recon actually found in the cyclone.) Maybe one day! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Whatever the reason, it would be so excellent to have more data Re: the cyclones in your region. We've seen in our basin that satellite intensity estimates can only be so accurate. (For example, last year, our Hurricane Alex (in the Gulf of Mexico) looked much more intense than what recon actually found in the cyclone.) Maybe one day! This is getting off-topic, but CIMSS is doing a lot of good research in that department. The Dvorak technique, while useful and revolutionary in its time, is outdated. With all of the MW data available, there is no reason to be using 4km-res IR images to do intensity analyses. Things like size and latitude obviously play a role in the intensity of storms as well. I'd bet within the next 5-8 years, we'll have a new satellite intensity estimation standard that is far superior to the Dvorak technique (I'd argue SATCON is already getting close, but suffers from poor temporal resolution). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 28, 2011 Author Share Posted January 28, 2011 This is getting off-topic, but CIMSS is doing a lot of good research in that department. The Dvorak technique, while useful and revolutionary in its time, is outdated. With all of the MW data available, there is no reason to be using 4km-res IR images to do intensity analyses. Things like size and latitude obviously play a role in the intensity of storms as well. I'd bet within the next 5-8 years, we'll have a new satellite intensity estimation standard that is far superior to the Dvorak technique. Not off topic at all. Very interesting. I'm glad to hear this, actually! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alby_14 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Don't tease me like that. How's it going, Stephen? Nice to see you dropping by! So... What do you think of the potential QLD cyclone next week? We've been talking about it here-- how the models have been showing it. What are folks saying at NAC, etc.? Would you chase it if it were another Larry...? P.S. Prague is cold and wretched, of course. Hi Josh. I think the QLD potential is definitely there! TC Anthony is a lucky dip. I hope it behaves and crosses the N QLD coast as a weak TC. If it hovers it could impact on the NE steering winds and influence the stronger system progged by GFS and EC to follow. BoM are onto them both and Fiji are onto the later system. People are excited here, but scared of possibble QLD crossings. As mentioned above, the floods witnessed recently in QLD have been widespread and deadly. They are terrified of any mention of a TC impact. Would I chase? Definitely. But im 'work-bound'. My work requires I chase floods in the NT... I do think that there will be a number of TC's in the Coral Sea during the next few weeks. Landfall? IMO, Anthony needs to set a trend! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoastLow Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 After doing a little digging around about Giselle, I was curious about the current status of what was Wilma. It looks like a very interesting setup for New Zealand: Lots of rain at the very least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 28, 2011 Author Share Posted January 28, 2011 After doing a little digging around about Giselle, I was curious about the current status of what was Wilma. It looks like a very interesting setup for New Zealand: Lots of rain at the very least. I went on NZ's MetService site, and it's hard to get any kind of substantive meteorological information out of it. Do they even have cyclone advisories? Maybe I missed it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 28, 2011 Author Share Posted January 28, 2011 The Fiji Meteorological Service is tracking TD 09F, which is near 13.0S 179.0E. The summary remarks: GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND SLOWLY MOVE IT SOUTHWESTWARDS WITH SOME INTENSIFICATION. I think this must be the eventual Queensland whopper that everyone's been discussing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 I remembered the water around Perth/Freemantle as being kind of cold. Sort of like trying to hit New England with a hurricane from the East... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 28, 2011 Author Share Posted January 28, 2011 SATCON has Bianca at 93 kt (1-min), BOM has Bianca at 85 kt (10-min). JTWC has Bianca at 115 kt (1-min). The BoM has it up to 90 kt (10-min) now-- so it's strengthened a bit more-- and that makes the JTWC value seem less far-fetched. I'm surprised it's continued to strengthen at such a low latitude. I think that should be it, though-- as the latest BoM Technical Bulletin mentions early signs of weakening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 28, 2011 Author Share Posted January 28, 2011 By the way, here's an interesting tidbit from the BoM's Technical Bulletin-- Re: the potential impact down near Perth: There is significant uncertainty regarding the intensity and track of the system as it impacts the southwest coast of Western Australia with many models indicating the system will fall apart just off the coast as the strong southeasterlies from the new high push in and markedly increase the shear. However a number of model runs have indicated the system may reach the coast with gale force winds and other associated impacts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 holla Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Euro: 120 144 CMC: 132 The JMA misses the storm The Best by far is the GFS has a little further N solution... Takes it into the GOC Keeps going as a landphoonish thing as another one winds up in the Coral Sea Boom... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 28, 2011 Author Share Posted January 28, 2011 Hey, thanks, kush, for this cool model rundown. The agreement between the Euro and the Canadian is remarkable-- as is the general consensus that some sort of significant cyclone will come ashore in Queensland in the next week. Interestingly, the GFS's second, later cyclone looks very much like what the other models are showing next week. It'll be interesting to watch this unfold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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