Fall 2026 Medium/Long Range Pattern Thread

[Daniel Boone]

Short changed big time with this last Rain Event. Bands moving south to north eastern flank of system missed central Lee County for the most part. 0.52" Total here. Western Lee received 1-1.5". Eastern Lee 1-1.25". Wise and Scott Counties, 1.2 to 2.3 inches. Monthly Total here so far, 1.64". 

[KakashiHatake2000]

https://x.com/nwsmemphis/status/2109809283592606168?s=46&t=nTdsbQZkQMPkUI3zGjAXJg NWS Memphis showing a 40-69% fire weather probabilistic outlook for the mid south region for Friday


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[Carvers Gap]

Well, it is still freaking hot.  LOL.  We got a bit of a thankful respite this past weekend, but the furnace doesn't want to quit quite yet.  Looks like we have another nice weekend coming up.  Leaves IMBY are waaaaaay behind schedule in regards to changing color.  Just looking at the Euro weeklies(now daily of course), it looks like a monster block sets up in central Canada.  I wouldn't exactly call it HL blocking, but it is gonna have to be dealt with.  That block normally surpasses storm tracks but is rarely cold in that location - I could be wrong, but just thinking off the top of my head!

It is basically a HB block.  On the plus side(like our current temps), it could flip the AO strongly negative(per the control) if it is a bit further north.  That could open the door for very cold air(which I don't see on modeling at this time).

[Carvers Gap]

It should also be noted that at this time of the year, LR ext modeling can be extremely untrustworthy.  It can flip on a dime.  I thought the tropical system might shake things up(and it still yet might have done that), but the return of the heat ridge is at hand.  Let's see if something can knock it down for more than 4-5 days at a time.  The Euro Weeklies ext control can sometimes pick up pattern changes.  It has extreme blocking in the week 4 range, but not crazy cold temps to go with that blocking.

Snowpack in Canada may be well behind normal.  This might be a winter where winter arrives mid-late.  

[Carvers Gap]

Just looking at 12z(Euro) and the 18z GFS, the SE is sitting under a STUBBORN southeast ridge.  Pretty much every HP that brings us cool air, slides over to Bermuda, and re-establishes warm, tropical return flow.  Today felt like one of those sci-fi movies where the sun was growing hotter over time!  El Nino winters "should" place a mean trough over the SE (but w/ poor cold sourcing).  Extended summer seems like the recent norm regardless of ENSO.  This feels like a La Nina fall with the exception that we have received some rain.  Most years, we see the weather "snap" cold later in fall.  I think this will be a slow descent into "meh" for December and a good portion of January.  Then, I think we could be in business kind of like many 14-15 but less snow.  We'll see.  I wouldn't be surprised to see some early snow embedded in this warm pattern as crazy as that would seem - some El Nino winters have faux starts.  

Good to be back.  Our family is doing ok.  We know my Mom is with the Lord, and not suffering any longer.  She fought the good fight and ran a wonderful race.  As Jeff noted, she graduated to a place w/ no more suffering, a new home, and a new body.  She will be greatly missed, but we will meet again.   Thank you all for the notes in the winter spec thread.  Those mean a lot.  

[jaxjagman]

Cold front should pass through today.We  broke record highs this week,.each day from Monday-Thursday each day,not to often you see that

Up into next week is a EWB into the IO with a Kelvin Wave,MJO should go into the Eastern IO or phase 3 regardless of what the RRMS seemingly is showing for several days,so it still should be moving along.

Next weekend a strong typhoon is seemingly headed towards  East China,this will build up the ridge once again off SE Japan,shades of summer once again maybe in the long range to an extent.

Think the Euro is doing a good job sorta with the MJO,so i'm riding it myself right now,but its going to murky as it heads towards the COD again seemingly

[Carvers Gap]

First snowflakes of the season may fly in the higher elevations of NE TN and NW NC tomorrow morning.  Crazy stuff given how hot it has been this week!

[Carvers Gap]

Scattered frost Sunday AM in NE TN and SW VA looks likely.  

[jaxjagman]

Ha,cold front is in  East Tn,we dropped into the 50'S already before 3PM,would have liked to see some rain but will take the cooler temps

[John1122]

I went from 79 to 56 behind the front.