Potential Tropical Cyclone One

[WxWatcher007]

We've been talking about a window for tropical development for weeks, and now we have our first invest of the season. Regardless of development, heavy rain will continue across much of the south. Separating out a thread so we can continue the discussion here. 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Jun 15 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Northwestern Gulf of America:
A trough of low pressure located over northeastern Mexico is 
producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Development is not expected during the next day or so while the 
trough remains inland.  However, the system could re-emerge over the 
northwestern Gulf of America late Tuesday or Wednesday, and 
environmental conditions there are marginally conducive for the 
formation of a short-lived tropical storm on Wednesday into 
Thursday.

Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, interests across southern 
and eastern Texas and portions of Louisiana and Mississippi should 
prepare for periods of intense rainfall over the next several days 
which could produce widespread, life-threatening flash, urban, and 
river flooding. Gusty winds and coastal flooding are also possible 
along portions of the northwestern Gulf Coast, and Tropical Storm 
Watches or Warnings could be required on Tuesday.  Additional 
information on this system can be found in products issued by your 
local National Weather Service Forecast Office or NHC Key Messages.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake

 

[WxWatcher007]

 

[yoda]

PTC 1 at 11am per NHC 

@WxWatcher007

[yoda]

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone One Advisory Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL012026
1000 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026
 
...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND DANGEROUS FLASH FLOODING EXPECTED FROM
POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE ONE....
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.0N 98.0W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM SW OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS
ABOUT 360 MI...580 KM SW OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the northwestern
Gulf Coast from Sargent, Texas to Morgan City, Louisiana.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Sargent to Morgan City
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 to 36 hours. 
 
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the disturbance was centered near 
latitude 27.0 North, longitude 98.0 West. The system is moving 
toward the northeast near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this general motion 
with an increase in forward speed is anticipated over the next 
couple of days.  The disturbance should move offshore the Texas 
coast tonight or early Wednesday, move roughly parallel to the upper 
Texas coast later on Wednesday and move back inland in extreme 
eastern Texas or southwestern Louisiana late Wednesday or early 
Thursday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
The disturbance is forecast to gradually strengthen and could become
a tropical storm early on Wednesday.  Weakening is anticipated on
Thursday after the system moves back on land.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone One can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO
header WTNT41 KNHC.
 
RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone One is expected to produce
rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with isolated higher totals around
12 inches through Thursday from the Mid to Upper Texas Coast through
much of Louisiana, central and southern portions of Mississippi and
Alabama, and the far western portion of the Florida Panhandle. This
could generate dangerous to life-threatening flash flooding.
 
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Potential Tropical Cyclone One, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk 
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ero
 
For a list of rainfall observations (and wind reports) associated
this potential tropical cyclone, see the companion storm summary at
WBCSCCNS1 with the WMO header ACUS44 KWBC or at the following link:
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html
 
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area beginning early Wednesday.
 
STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
 
Port Bolivar, TX to Morgan City, LA...2-4 ft
 
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves.  Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances.  For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.
 
For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge
inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak
Storm Surge Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?peakSurge.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by the Potential Tropical Cyclone are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions
along the northwestern Gulf Coast for the next couple of days.
Please consult products from your local weather office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at:
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ripCurrents
 
TORNADO: A tornado or two is possible through tonight from the 
Upper Texas coast across southern Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama 
and the Florida Panhandle.

[yoda]

Potential Tropical Cyclone One Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL012026
1000 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026
 
The disturbance (AL90) that we have been tracking for several days 
across the southern Gulf of America into northeastern Mexico has 
moved into southern Texas.  While the system is producing plentiful 
convection, it still lacks a well-defined center. However, most of 
the guidance suggest that it will move offshore tonight, and winds 
will increase to tropical-storm-force on Wednesday.  Thus, 
advisories have been initiated on Potential Tropical Cyclone One, 
and Tropical Storm Watches have been issued for portions of the 
Upper Texas and southwestern Louisiana coasts. Regardless of 
whether the system becomes a tropical cyclone, heavy rainfall and 
life-threatening flash flooding will be the primary hazards 
with this system. The initial intensity is set at 25 kt, based on 
surface and radar data.
 
The system is moving slowly northeastward this morning.  We expect
the low to continue moving in that general direction with some
increase in forward speed due to it encountering faster flow
associated with a flat mid-latitude trough over the eastern United
States.  Model guidance hugs the Texas coast but generally keeps
it offshore for about a day on Wednesday before moving back onshore
late Wednesday or early Thursday.  The NHC forecast is between the 
latest dynamical model consensus and the corrected-model consensus 
HCCA.
 
The upper-level environment is not particularly conducive for much
intensification with a fair bit of shear and close proximity to
land.  However, there is enough upper-level support from a jet to
the north to cause large-scale deepening, along with convective
support from warm Gulf waters, so some intensification is
anticipated through Wednesday.  This forecast is similar to the
model consensus IVCN.  It should be noted that this system will
likely never have a pure tropical appearance on satellite due to the
upper trough and shear, with a highly asymmetric appearance with the
rainfall and winds favoring the eastern semicircle.  
 
 
KEY MESSAGES:
 
1. Potentially life-threatening flash and urban flooding is possible 
across the Texas coast eastward into central Mississippi through 
Thursday. Prolonged rainfall may extend the flood threat into the 
weekend. Widespread small stream and minor river flooding is 
expected along the Texas coast into southwest Louisiana, with 
isolated areas of significant river flooding possible across the 
Texas Coast and Louisiana.

2. Potential Tropical Cyclone One is forecast to become a tropical 
storm as it moves along or just off the northwestern Gulf coast 
through Wednesday.  Tropical Storm Watches have been issued from 
Sargent, Texas, to Morgan City, Louisiana.

3. Minor to moderate coastal flooding is expected along portions of 
the Upper Texas and Louisiana coastlines. 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  16/1500Z 27.0N  98.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
 12H  17/0000Z 27.4N  97.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
 24H  17/1200Z 28.2N  95.8W   35 KT  40 MPH...TROPICAL STORM
 36H  18/0000Z 29.6N  93.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  18/1200Z 31.6N  91.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 60H  19/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Blake

[olafminesaw]

[WxWatcher007]

Potential Tropical Cyclone One Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL012026
1000 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

The center of the system is beginning to emerge into the 
northwestern Gulf.  Surface observations do not show very strong 
winds over the area at this time, and the current intensity is held 
at 25 kt.  This is consistent with a Dvorak classification from 
TAFB.  There is significant westerly vertical wind shear over the 
disturbance, with most of the deep convection displaced well away 
from the center of the low.  Given that there has been no noticeable 
increase in the deep convective organization of the disturbance, it 
is being maintained as a potential tropical cyclone for this 
advisory. 

Based on the center fixes, the initial motion estimate, 050/5 kt, is 
similar to that from the previous advisory. There has been little 
change in the track model guidance.  The system is expected to 
accelerate northeastward in the flow on the southern and 
southwestern side of a broad mid-level trough over the eastern 
United States.  The official forecast track shows the disturbance or 
storm moving just offshore of, and parallel to, the Texas coast 
during the next day or so.  Then the system is likely to go back 
onshore late Wednesday or Wednesday night.  No significant change 
has been made to the track forecast for this advisory, and the 
official forecast is fairly close to the corrected consensus 
solution. 

The center should move far enough offshore on Wednesday for some 
intensification to occur due to a combination of warm Gulf waters 
and upper-level divergence.  However the SHIPS guidance diagnoses 
fairly strong shear over the area during the next 24-36 hours which 
should limit strengthening up to landfall.  The NHC forecast 
continues to indicate the system becoming a tropical storm tomorrow, 
which is also shown in the IVCN intensity model consensus.
 
Regardless of whether the system becomes a tropical cyclone, heavy
rainfall and life-threatening flash flooding will be the primary
hazards with this system.
 
 
KEY MESSAGES:
 
1. Potentially life-threatening flash and urban flooding is likely 
through Thursday across Louisiana and southern Mississippi, and is 
possible near the Upper Texas coast.  Flash flooding is also 
possible across Alabama, Georgia, and the Florida Panhandle through 
the end of the week.  Prolonged rainfall may extend the flood threat 
into the weekend.
 
2. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected along the Louisiana
coast on Wednesday from Sabine Pass to Morgan City where a Tropical
Storm Warning is in effect.
 
3. Minor to moderate coastal flooding is expected along portions of
the Upper Texas and Louisiana coastlines.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  17/0300Z 27.6N  97.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
 12H  17/1200Z 28.5N  95.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
 24H  18/0000Z 30.2N  93.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 36H  18/1200Z 32.1N  90.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...INLAND
 48H  19/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch/Adams