E PA/NJ/DE Summer 2026 Obs/Discussion

[LVLion77]

Same here. The lv got screwed again. The models cannot handle the dryness.  The corn is smiling again. All we have gotten is the bad wind damage 
Ling

I suspect, but I can’t stay with certainty that the forecasting accuracy has gotten far worse for a place like the Lehigh Valley. I could be talking out of my rear, but I just wonder if overreliance on computer modeling eliminates the way that local human meteorologist would take into account other factors, such as local elevations, microclimates, stable airflows, etc.

[simbasad2]

26 minutes ago, LVLion77 said:

I suspect, but I can’t stay with certainty that the forecasting accuracy has gotten far worse for a place like the Lehigh Valley. I could be talking out of my rear, but I just wonder if overreliance on computer modeling eliminates the way that local human meteorologist would take into account other factors, such as local elevations, microclimates, stable airflows, etc.

Models just don't do well with setups like this in general. Everything is dependent on the exact placement of outflow boundaries with respect to terrain. Any marginal error in timing, placement, strength of cold pool, etc will result in a completely different evolution of these storms

[BBasile]

Kind of wild that with all of the storms today, the instability is still so prevalent.