Phoenix Experiences Warmest February and Winter on Record

[SnoSki14]

9 hours ago, gallopinggertie said:

Today Flagstaff had a high temp four degrees higher than their April record high…

 

Flagstaff had a higher temperature than their average July-August temperatures in March...crazy 

[GaWx]

Fwiw this article was just released:

https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/early-southwest-heat-latest-parade-070743575.html

 Note this paragraph:

“Climate scientists at World Weather Attribution did a flash analysis — which is not peer-reviewed yet — of whether climate change was a factor in this Southwest heat wave. They compared this week's expected temperatures to what's been observed in the area in March since 1900 and computer models of a world with climate change. They found that ‘events as warm as in March 2026 would have been virtually impossible without human-induced climate change.’”

 Any opinions about this article?

[donsutherland1]

World Weather Attribution's flash analysis of the unprecedented March heat in western North America.

Excerpt:

Observation-based data products show a strong increase in the likelihood and intensity of heat waves in the region, suggesting that such events have become about 4°C warmer as a best estimate, and that events as warm as in March 2026 would have been virtually impossible without human-induced climate change. Climate models strongly underestimate this observed trend but still show a significant increase in extreme heat. We combine models and observations, giving equal weight to both lines of evidence, and find an estimated increase in intensity of 2.6°C for such events, with an increase in likelihood of a factor of about 800. This means that without climate change it would have been virtually impossible for the event to occur.

[donsutherland1]

4 hours ago, GaWx said:

Fwiw this article was just released:

https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/early-southwest-heat-latest-parade-070743575.html

 Note this paragraph:

“Climate scientists at World Weather Attribution did a flash analysis — which is not peer-reviewed yet — of whether climate change was a factor in this Southwest heat wave. They compared this week's expected temperatures to what's been observed in the area in March since 1900 and computer models of a world with climate change. They found that ‘events as warm as in March 2026 would have been virtually impossible without human-induced climate change.’”

 Any opinions about this article?

Although the flash analysis isn't peer reviewed, it is derived from a peer-reviewed methodology, which provides credibility. These studies provide value, as they provide an alternative to pure statistical research. The corroboration between the modeling and statistics enhances the quality of their findings. Further, studies concerning prior extreme heat outbreaks in the Southwest have all found a strong link to climate change.

As for March 2026, March 2026 is poised to become Phoenix's first March to break outside the 99% confidence interval based on 30-year climate data.

 

[GaWx]

4 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Although the flash analysis isn't peer reviewed, it is derived from a peer-reviewed methodology, which provides credibility. These studies provide value, as they provide an alternative to pure statistical research. The corroboration between the modeling and statistics enhances the quality of their findings. Further, studies concerning prior extreme heat outbreaks in the Southwest have all found a strong link to climate change.

As for March 2026, March 2026 is poised to become Phoenix's first March to break outside the 99% confidence interval based on 30-year climate data.

 

Don and others,

 For obvious reasons I’m having trouble with what’s bolded from this article:

"The area of the U.S. being hit by extreme weather in the past five years has doubled from 20 years ago, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Extremes Index, which includes various types of wild weather, such as heat and cold waves, downpours and drought."

———

 This is unclear. Are they implying that cold waves have increased since 20 years ago due to CC?

[donsutherland1]

6 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Don and others,

 For obvious reasons I’m having trouble with what’s bolded from this article:

"The area of the U.S. being hit by extreme weather in the past five years has doubled from 20 years ago, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Extremes Index, which includes various types of wild weather, such as heat and cold waves, downpours and drought."

———

 This is unclear. Are they implying that cold waves have increased since 20 years ago due to CC?

The Climate Extremes Index includes cold. However, for the Southwest, extreme cold has disappeared in recent years. Here's the CEI's temperature charts:

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Just continues and continues

[donsutherland1]

Phoenix has now reached 100° for the seventh consecutive day. That surpasses the April record of six consecutive days from April 25-30, 1992.

Over the past seven days (March 18-24), Phoenix has had a mean high temperature of 102.7°. That tops the seven-day record for April of 101.7° that was set during April 24-30, 1992.

[donsutherland1]

To illustrate the extreme nature of the ongoing heatwave in Phoenix, there were six dates since 1980 when the daily record was broken by 8F or more. Four were: 3/19/2026, 3/20/2026, 3/21/2026, 3/22/2026. The others: 9/28/2024, 10/6/2024. 

[donsutherland1]

Phoenix: March 1-24, 2026 vs. its historical record.