2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino

[GaWx]

20 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't know how you can emphatically cite how much MC influence there was in 2023, then dismiss any influence of the central basin this season....yes, El Nino is stronger, but it's not omnipotent, as evidenced by the PDO resistance owed to the Japanese warm pool.

Anyway, we'll see what happens....good chatting, as always.

The Sep of 2026 MJO has been very different from that of Sep of 2023:

Sep of 2023 (blue): all in MC/IO

 

Sep of 2026: none in MC/IO 

[40/70 Benchmark]

14 minutes ago, GaWx said:

The Sep of 2026 MJO has been very different from that of Sep of 2023:

Sep of 2023 (blue): all in MC/IO

 

Sep of 2026: none in MC/IO 

No doubt...the issue is whether it will be virtually all eastern Pacific, or some intervals of central Pacific influence will be at play.

[GaWx]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

No doubt...the is whether it will be virtually all eastern Pacific, or some intervals of central Pacific influence will be at play.

 Here in the SE, I prefer either EPAC or CPAC dominating it to the MC dominating because that would normally mean a much reduced influence of the SE ridge/colder overall.