2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino

[raindancewx]

Maybe I'm wrong - we could end with the wettest month since 1892 here. The land has already rapidly greened up from all the rain. Very pretty. I have mosquito bites all over my back just above my butt from walking, as well as on my arms. Not great.

Conceptually, the winter now has the following setup: Very hot Jun-July (poor for snow), hot for Aug (neutral), wet (good for snow), El Nino (good for snow), duration (>3 yrs since last big season), El Nino + good monsoon (good for snow). September will finish near average for highs with all the rain induced cold days.

Polo is supposed to die right over El Paso, which is amazing spot for a low for most of New Mexico.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Lots to unpack in this final El Niño update before the main Outlook in about 6 weeks time, but this weekend's major east coast storm may be a sign of what is to come. Here is one excerpt to provide a bit of a sneak-preview:

A diligent forecaster that has engaged in an exhaustive analysis of the data will be acutely aware of the fact that the pattern across the hemisphere has grown much more representative of a healthy El Nino during the month of August. A forecaster of this ilk would position oneself to also be aware of a potential mid-season shift westward in the orientation of an El Nino that absolutely presents as east-based in the mean; not to mention a winter season that was exceptionally mild overall in the midst of a rapidly warming climate, yet managed to facilitate shorter-term unions between the arctic branch and the most impressive subtropical jet ever observed to author one of the more scintillating chapters in meteorological lore-

 

 

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2026/09/record-el-nino-poised-to-trigger.html

[Jebman]

40/70 REALLY gets deep into the analysis on his blog!

[Jebman]

5 hours ago, raindancewx said:

Maybe I'm wrong - we could end with the wettest month since 1892 here. The land has already rapidly greened up from all the rain. Very pretty. I have mosquito bites all over my back just above my butt from walking, as well as on my arms. Not great.

Conceptually, the winter now has the following setup: Very hot Jun-July (poor for snow), hot for Aug (neutral), wet (good for snow), El Nino (good for snow), duration (>3 yrs since last big season), El Nino + good monsoon (good for snow). September will finish near average for highs with all the rain induced cold days.

Polo is supposed to die right over El Paso, which is amazing spot for a low for most of New Mexico.

Congrats on getting Polo's rain! Hey could you send a little of that rain down to south central Texas please?

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 9/23/2026 at 10:02 PM, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

This may not be the classic El Nino pattern for October, but it is +AAM in the northern latitudes

AAM cycles usually reverse every 40-45 days so I'd expect something non-El Nino like in mid November

Good....not bad timing for a deviation from warm ENSO climo, especially a record one.

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 hours ago, Terpeast said:

Yeah, most of the tropical convection is very east based with the MC completely shut down (finally, after 10 years). Interestingly there is some remaining convection right around the dateline or just to the east of it. If I loop the forecast forward, that piece stays there. I think it may actually help us a bit this winter if it keeps going. If not, and it stays this east based, that won’t be good news for our cold/snow chances.

 

100% dead-on. ...I just hit on all of that in he piece I just published...competing convective forcing nodes....one in the central Pacific in association with the western warm pool that was dislodged eastward, and one with the El Niño....we are now rooting for the same warm pool that we have spent the better part of a decade cursing out.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

6 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Lots to unpack in this final El Niño update before the main Outlook in about 6 weeks time, but this weekend's major east coast storm may be a sign of what is to come. Here is one excerpt to provide a bit of a sneak-preview:

A diligent forecaster that has engaged in an exhaustive analysis of the data will be acutely aware of the fact that the pattern across the hemisphere has grown much more representative of a healthy El Nino during the month of August. A forecaster of this ilk would position oneself to also be aware of a potential mid-season shift westward in the orientation of an El Nino that absolutely presents as east-based in the mean; not to mention a winter season that was exceptionally mild overall in the midst of a rapidly warming climate, yet managed to facilitate shorter-term unions between the arctic branch and the most impressive subtropical jet ever observed to author one of the more scintillating chapters in meteorological lore-

 

 

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2026/09/record-el-nino-poised-to-trigger.html

Hopefully this can make it to the threads most liked post, instead of all that drama stuff

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Monster N. Pacific low finally.. -250dm. You never get -250dm on the D10 ensemble mean unless it's a special circumstance. 

https://ibb.co/6RK3BJMZ

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Monster N. Pacific low finally.. -250dm. You never get -250dm on the D10 ensemble mean unless it's a special circumstance. 

https://ibb.co/6RK3BJMZ

Yea, MC is going down...pretty clear.