Texas 2026 Discussion/Observations

[DFWWeather]

Very interesting read on afternoon AFD from FWD, discussing thunder sleet.

[vwgrrc]

5 minutes ago, DFWWeather said:

Very interesting read on afternoon AFD from FWD, discussing thunder sleet.

my first time hearing this term in real-world lol

thunder-freezing rain (TSFZRA)

[Stx_Thunder]

47 minutes ago, aggiegeog said:

Deep E TX could really get hammered tomorrow night.

Yes. Very, significant LIs for this kind of scenario.

Just about every single parameter I can think of is lined up for a (possibly) catastrophic ETX ice storm. I don't want to overstate myself, but I feel even these most reliable winter wx models are still underdoing the accumulation potential with such a powerful incoming SS trough for this winter wx setup.

That's also why I still would not let my guard down at all. Even in CTX or Austin/San Antonio region.

[vwgrrc]

41 minutes ago, SnowMan said:

Of course right as I say that, this run is warmer.  Sleet profile showing almost 3 inches just to northwest....

There's this one other model RRFS-A or Rapid Refresh Forecast System (Prototype A) is also showing a huge ice storm like HRRR or even more aggressive. but personally I have no idea how reliable it is. Maybe treat it like a worst-case outcome.

[cstrunk]

Storms in south Texas with the initial wave may rob some moisture somewhere in E/NE Texas. Something that may limit total precip from 1.5"-2" down to maybe 1" in some places.

[SnowMan]

36 minutes ago, vwgrrc said:

There's this one other model RRFS-A or Rapid Refresh Forecast System (Prototype A) is also showing a huge ice storm like HRRR or even more aggressive. but personally I have no idea how reliable it is. Maybe treat it like a worst-case outcome.

20z HRRR colder....ok maybe there's a chance for some decent ZR

[vwgrrc]

17 minutes ago, SnowMan said:

20z HRRR colder....ok maybe there's a chance for some decent ZR

Notably drier than 12z if I'm not mistaken

[SnowMan]

10 minutes ago, vwgrrc said:

Notably drier than 12z if I'm not mistaken

Interesting. I was looking at 13z vs. 20z and looking at total precip 20z looks juicier.

[Stx_Thunder]

6 hours ago, aggiegeog said:

March 2014 featured very heavy sleet and lots of lightning where I was living in Lindale. Being in a metal bardo at the time the combo of heavy sleet and frequent thunder was wild. This area could see similar situation again but much longer lasting.

Was there also CG lightning going on up there back then that night?

It was just incredible when I saw 2 simultaneous CG strikes (likely positive-charged because they were pretty thick bolts), in just over 35 F wx about a mile from my backyard down here. I didn't have access to detailed lightning strike data online back then.

[aggiegeog]

1 minute ago, Stx_Thunder said:

Was there also CG lightning going on up there back then?

It was just incredible when I saw 2 simultaneous CG strikes (likely positive-charged because they were pretty thick bolts), in just above 35 F wx about a mile from my backyard down here that night.

I honestly dont recall.

[vwgrrc]

S. Denton Ct here - OAT is a good 1-2C lower than most models projected today. Feels like the transition time gonna be quite a bit earlier. 

[DFWWeather]

I have a feeling the 1 to 3 inches of sleet forecast by FWD might be a tad underdone given what I am seeing in the models and the potential for convective sleet.

[gwlee7]

I am horrible at reading this stuff. So, I appreciate you guys with more experience.   Are y’all thinking more sleet than ice around DFW?

[DFWWeather]

8 minutes ago, gwlee7 said:

I am horrible at reading this stuff. So, I appreciate you guys with more experience.   Are y’all thinking more sleet than ice around DFW?

Absolutely, this will be a sleet dominate storm. There could be 0.10 to 0.25 ice accretion. I'm more concerned with higher sleet totals than what FWD is advertising, especially with the potential for thunder sleet or convective sleet. There should be some snow on the back end as the entire column cools.

[Stx_Thunder]

Already seeing lightning activity ongoing over the Big Bend region (west of Del Rio) for the past 2 hours now.

12Z HRRR showing an MCC or small MCS tracking into STX ahead of the surface front later tonight. Which definitely has the possibility to be strong/severe if the storms out there can organize. Already seeing some favorable signs outside here in STX with all the darker mid-level cloud bases and structures before sunset.

--

I do need to mention another highly underlooked instability parameter that will in fact be another major contributing factor to the wintry convective onslaught tomorrow (aside from substantial deep-layer shear closer to 100 knots on Euro & NAM), is steep mid-level lapse rates.

CRP and HOU sites showing -6 to -7 C on upper-air obs data today. And Euro model systems continue to project those in the state through tomorrow night.

[Chinook]

ping! snow and sleet storm report apparently says 0.5" of sleet. Moderate snow (1/2 mile visibility) near Oklahoma City. There's got to be some decent sleet/snow by the Red River.

[vwgrrc]

Is it just me or 0z seems coming with an increased amount during the day tomorrow for DFW? Basically AFD mentioned there's a break tomorrow around mid-day but several models seems closing that gap now.

[Stx_Thunder]

4 hours ago, vwgrrc said:

Is it just me or 0z seems coming with an increased amount during the day tomorrow for DFW? Basically AFD mentioned there's a break tomorrow around mid-day but several models seems closing that gap now.

The primary forcing aloft from the parent mid-level trough out west isn't forecast by the reliable models to start overspreading the state until later today - tonight. Which is why I've been stating the main deal (especially for convective ice/sleet) is going to be Saturday night.

It's common to have "lull" or large gap areas of little or no precip between lead shortwave activity like what's ongoing in the state tonight.

 

11 hours ago, vwgrrc said:

There's this one other model RRFS-A or Rapid Refresh Forecast System (Prototype A) is also showing a huge ice storm like HRRR or even more aggressive. but personally I have no idea how reliable it is. Maybe treat it like a worst-case outcome.

 

I have not seen the RRFS in action at all for winter wx events yet. But it does have its moments for MCS (mesoscale convective system) propagation through the state in the spring time.

[Stx_Thunder]

8 hours ago, gwlee7 said:

I am horrible at reading this stuff. So, I appreciate you guys with more experience.   Are y’all thinking more sleet than ice around DFW?

I certainly understand there's many people out there who just want to know what's actually going to happen in weather, nothing else. And that's personally fine with me.

But it's always better when people would like to (or are willing, more specifically), learn about the meteorological science & parameters in order to really understand what *can* happen. Especially nowadays where it seems like every year we pass now has its own bizarre pattern or systems that are getting more complicated to break down in meteorology.

[Stx_Thunder]

0Z GFS, NAM runs tonight appear to be coming in line with 1 - 2 in. total icing, in ETX this weekend.

Either way, things are definitely still looking highly impactful there.

[aggiegeog]

Very light but happy to see that the drizzle type activity here tonight is in the form of sleet. Hopefully that is the case in the morning.

[Stx_Thunder]

Posting these H7 and 850Mb temp profiles from 0Z GFS, NAM runs tonight for visual reference on why ETX icing, is bound to be majorly impactful Saturday night.

As long as 850Mb - 700Mb layer warm-rain processes don't get too much in the way.

[aggiegeog]

8 minutes ago, Stx_Thunder said:

Posting these H7 and 850Mb temp profiles from 0Z GFS, NAM runs tonight for visual reference on why ETX icing, is bound to be majorly impactful Saturday night.

As long as 850Mb - 700Mb layer warm-rain processes don't get too much in the way.

850mb front stalls over my head all day tomorrow. Thankfully 925mb sub -5C will freeze a lot of that for me. But depending on 850mb front could shift precip.types around

[cstrunk]

Heavy sleet in Longview right now at 31F. 

[DFWWeather]

KDFW now down to 23°F racing toward the teens. Grass starting to get covered in sleet. The second wave tonight may producer way more snow than thought and higher end ratios. Any thoughts? I can say we are out of the heavy ice/freezing rain accretion zone.

[canderson]

47 minutes ago, cstrunk said:

Heavy sleet in Longview right now at 31F. 

Yea a skating rink of sleet my parents say. 

[loganh]

Seeing some decent sleet accumulation in gilmer/longview area, still failing pretty heavy too.

[aggiegeog]

Maybe 0.1" freezing rain with close to an inch of sleet. 29F right now with colder temps moving in from the west and north. We may see 2" sleet with this first round. I expected the first round to be mainly freezing rain around here so great sign that it's 50/50 or even leaning more to sleet. Round 2 should be all sleet turning to snow tomorrow morning.

[DFWWeather]

Arlington side roads now completely iced over. KDFW down to 21 and getting moderate to heavy sleet.

[DFWWeather]

2 minutes ago, aggiegeog said:

Maybe 0.1" freezing rain with close to an inch of sleet. 29F right now with colder temps moving in from the west and north. We may see 2" sleet with this first round. I expected the first round to be mainly freezing rain around here so great sign that it's 50/50 or even leaning more to sleet. Round 2 should be all sleet turning to snow tomorrow morning.

Metro may be primed for more snow this evening with 20:1 ratios looking probable as temps will be in the teens shortly.