Texas 2026 Discussion/Observations

[DFWWeather]

Very interesting read on afternoon AFD from FWD, discussing thunder sleet.

[vwgrrc]

5 minutes ago, DFWWeather said:

Very interesting read on afternoon AFD from FWD, discussing thunder sleet.

my first time hearing this term in real-world lol

thunder-freezing rain (TSFZRA)

[Stx_Thunder]

47 minutes ago, aggiegeog said:

Deep E TX could really get hammered tomorrow night.

Yes. Very, significant LIs for this kind of scenario.

Just about every single parameter I can think of is lined up for a (possibly) catastrophic ETX ice storm. I don't want to overstate myself, but I feel even these most reliable winter wx models are still underdoing the accumulation potential with such a powerful incoming SS trough for this winter wx setup.

That's also why I still would not let my guard down at all. Even in CTX or Austin/San Antonio region.

[vwgrrc]

41 minutes ago, SnowMan said:

Of course right as I say that, this run is warmer.  Sleet profile showing almost 3 inches just to northwest....

There's this one other model RRFS-A or Rapid Refresh Forecast System (Prototype A) is also showing a huge ice storm like HRRR or even more aggressive. but personally I have no idea how reliable it is. Maybe treat it like a worst-case outcome.

[cstrunk]

Storms in south Texas with the initial wave may rob some moisture somewhere in E/NE Texas. Something that may limit total precip from 1.5"-2" down to maybe 1" in some places.

[SnowMan]

36 minutes ago, vwgrrc said:

There's this one other model RRFS-A or Rapid Refresh Forecast System (Prototype A) is also showing a huge ice storm like HRRR or even more aggressive. but personally I have no idea how reliable it is. Maybe treat it like a worst-case outcome.

20z HRRR colder....ok maybe there's a chance for some decent ZR

[vwgrrc]

17 minutes ago, SnowMan said:

20z HRRR colder....ok maybe there's a chance for some decent ZR

Notably drier than 12z if I'm not mistaken