hawkeye_wx Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 12z Euro is similar to past runs.... stays relatively weak and is able to not get pulled north early, then blows up south of Jamaica and is quickly yanked north by the next trough. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago Surprised to see no models caving in yet. Gfs clearly shows too much intensification given the amount of shear, even if it's track ends up correct. Euro and Icon seem to have the middle of the road tracks where it stalls near Jamaica thats my current leaning. Cmc and Ukmet have a west bias, so they are the least likely Imo. Edit: The 12z eps has a lot of members with strong lows near the Honduras coast so maybe that solution has a better chance than I originally thought. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted 3 hours ago Author Share Posted 3 hours ago 1. 12Z UKMET (goes to 168) maps once again have the low stay in the S Car and go west into Nicaragua; low is a bit stronger with it down to 1003 at strongest, which should easily be strong enough to be a TD although the textual output doesn’t show that. Will UK for 98L be a miserable fail, the big winner, or in between? Stay tuned! 2. 12Z JMA (goes to 192): has a cat 1 hurricane headed due west to just offshore the Nicaragua/Honduras border 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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