Leeward Islands Area of Interest—10% 2 day and 50% seven day odds of development

[WxWatcher007]

The tropics are active now with three systems being monitored. This is the thread for the current orange nearing the Leeward Islands. 

 

The forecast for this wave is complicated, with more implications for land than our central Atlantic cherry. The signal for development is not as strong as the Atlantic cherry, but this morning there is a modest amount of convection.

 

The key to this wave and its possible risk to land is that it is likely to stay weak as it pushes across the northern Leeward Islands, bringing rain and gusty winds, but it finds a potentially more favorable environment for development in the southwest Atlantic. While the GFS has led the way in signaling development, in its latest run it consolidates both waves in five days off near the Bahamas.

 

Meanwhile, the Euro, which was more bearish originally, keeps both waves separate.

 

It is critical to see how the upper level pattern over the east coast develops, and whether the strength and orientation is enough to kick both waves out to sea or create an east coast threat. This one is definitely worth watching. 

[GaWx]

 This was a TC on the admittedly untrustworthy GFS as far back as the 0Z 9/18 run and consistently on runs the last couple of days, including some ensemble members. Also, the Icon and Euro have at least hints that this may turn into something.

[MJO812]

Cmc now has it but it doesn't gain any attitude after this due to confluence. Gfs is similiar. 

[GaWx]

12Z GEFS: another pretty active run

[marsman]

55 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Cmc now has it but it doesn't gain any attitude after this due to confluence. Gfs is similiar. 

Pushes it south after this if I’m looking at the right one. We could use the rain, but please not another Florence. 

[GaWx]

The brand new (12Z) Euro has this on 9/29 hit NC as a TD.

[WxWatcher007]

13 minutes ago, GaWx said:

The brand new (12Z) Euro has this on 9/29 hit NC as a TD.

Might be a weak TS verbatim but as you know it’s more important to see the steering patterns that trough is really what make this a land threat as a ridge builds over the top and it’s not crazy far out—only about a week away. Short fuse system.