WxWatcher007 Posted Sunday at 05:50 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:50 PM The Atlantic has been exceptionally quiet for a second consecutive September, but it looks as if the basin is trying to wake back up with a robust tropical wave heading through the tropical Atlantic. The wave, focused near 30W, is most likely still a few days away from consolidating and kicking off the process of tropical genesis, but with a strong model signal from operational/ensemble/AI models, and the wave producing much more convection than the failed development of 91L, this one looks like it will become a TC eventually. There are still some headwinds, figuratively and literally. In the image above you can see stable air to the northwest of the wave. Further west, there is wind shear evident with what little convection being blown over. Long term though, once this wave is able to consolidate, it will have a chance to intensify. Long way away from that however. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted Sunday at 06:18 PM Share Posted Sunday at 06:18 PM 12Z runs regarding this MDR AOI: -GFS/CMC/Icon all have this eventually as a H with GFS/CMC both recurving well E of Bermuda (Icon doesn’t go out far enough to tell) -JMA has this as a TD at 48 and a TS at 72. This is stronger than the two prior 12Z runs that each had it as only a TD. -Euro has a MH passing just SE of Bermuda -UKMET again has this as a TS. This is a bit further W than recent runs but it’s still aiming a bit E of Bermuda as of 168: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 16.4N 47.4W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 17.09.2025 72 16.4N 47.4W 1006 40 0000UTC 18.09.2025 84 17.7N 48.8W 1006 42 1200UTC 18.09.2025 96 19.5N 52.1W 1006 44 0000UTC 19.09.2025 108 20.6N 54.3W 1006 40 1200UTC 19.09.2025 120 22.8N 55.1W 1006 44 0000UTC 20.09.2025 132 23.1N 57.0W 1005 43 1200UTC 20.09.2025 144 25.1N 57.7W 1003 46 0000UTC 21.09.2025 156 26.3N 58.6W 1001 49 1200UTC 21.09.2025 168 28.3N 59.3W 999 48 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted yesterday at 04:34 AM Share Posted yesterday at 04:34 AM 0Z runs -are fairly similar to the 12Z for the Icon, GFS, and CMC -This time the UKMET is even further W and threatens Bermuda: 0Z UK: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 18.0N 48.8W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 18.09.2025 72 18.0N 48.8W 1008 38 1200UTC 18.09.2025 84 20.0N 51.3W 1007 42 0000UTC 19.09.2025 96 21.2N 53.2W 1007 38 1200UTC 19.09.2025 108 22.7N 55.1W 1008 30 0000UTC 20.09.2025 120 22.5N 57.2W 1008 32 1200UTC 20.09.2025 132 23.1N 58.3W 1009 31 0000UTC 21.09.2025 144 23.3N 59.8W 1008 33 1200UTC 21.09.2025 156 23.9N 61.0W 1008 35 0000UTC 22.09.2025 168 24.3N 63.1W 1007 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted 18 hours ago Share Posted 18 hours ago 12Z runs: -GFS/CMC favoring an H but well E of Bermuda -Euro is very close to but just NE of Bermuda with an H -Icon is well to the SW of those other 3 and it’s fate is still unknown at 180 with it a TS S of Bermuda just starting a NW recurve -12Z JMA out to 72 so far: TC moving NW way out there -12Z UKMET like prior run threatens Bermuda with this run aimed only a little E of there: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 54 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 54 : 17.5N 46.9W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 18.09.2025 60 18.3N 47.8W 1007 41 1200UTC 18.09.2025 72 20.5N 50.5W 1007 43 0000UTC 19.09.2025 84 21.3N 53.4W 1007 41 1200UTC 19.09.2025 96 22.5N 55.5W 1007 31 0000UTC 20.09.2025 108 23.3N 57.0W 1007 32 1200UTC 20.09.2025 120 25.2N 58.1W 1007 38 0000UTC 21.09.2025 132 26.6N 58.4W 1004 44 1200UTC 21.09.2025 144 27.7N 60.4W 1002 41 0000UTC 22.09.2025 156 29.0N 61.7W 999 49 1200UTC 22.09.2025 168 30.6N 62.4W 995 51 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted 18 hours ago Share Posted 18 hours ago Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 200 PM EDT Mon Sep 15 2025 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America: Central Tropical Atlantic (AL92): A broad area of low pressure has formed roughly midway between the Windward Islands and the coast of west Africa. This system has become better organized since yesterday and is expected to move through a favorable environment for further development. A tropical depression or tropical storm is likely to form by the middle to latter part of this week as the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the central tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent. $$ Forecaster Blake/Putnam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted 17 hours ago Author Share Posted 17 hours ago Models are quite robust once 92L gets north of the islands. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted 16 hours ago Share Posted 16 hours ago 12Z JMA completed (fwiw): Although the 72 hour map had it recurving NW seemingly way out in safe recurve land, it then turned W through 144 getting it to 21N, 62W (similar to Icon). Then it does a recurve WNW and then NW ending at 25N, 70W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted 12 hours ago Share Posted 12 hours ago Now 60/90: is the long drought about to be broken? Keep in mind though that 91L also made it to 60/90 along with strong model support and surprisingly never developed: Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Mon Sep 15 2025 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America: 1. Central Tropical Atlantic (AL92): A broad area of low pressure is located about midway between the Windward Islands and the coast of west Africa. This system is showing signs of organization, and is expected to move through a favorable environment for further development. A tropical depression or tropical storm is likely to form by the middle to latter part of this week while the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the central tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent. Forecaster Pasch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted 12 hours ago Author Share Posted 12 hours ago 1 minute ago, GaWx said: Now 60/90: is the long drought about to be broken? Keep in mind though that 91L also made it to 60/90 along with strong model support and surprisingly never developed: Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Mon Sep 15 2025 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America: 1. Central Tropical Atlantic (AL92): A broad area of low pressure is located about midway between the Windward Islands and the coast of west Africa. This system is showing signs of organization, and is expected to move through a favorable environment for further development. A tropical depression or tropical storm is likely to form by the middle to latter part of this week while the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the central tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent. Forecaster Pasch Yeah that's in the back of my mind, but I think the distinction here is the much larger moisture envelope and ability of this one to keep up convection. Environment looks pretty favorable for development/intensification in the subtropics too, which worked well with Fernand. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted 10 hours ago Share Posted 10 hours ago 1 hour ago, GaWx said: Now 60/90: is the long drought about to be broken? Keep in mind though that 91L also made it to 60/90 along with strong model support and surprisingly never developed: Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Mon Sep 15 2025 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America: 1. Central Tropical Atlantic (AL92): A broad area of low pressure is located about midway between the Windward Islands and the coast of west Africa. This system is showing signs of organization, and is expected to move through a favorable environment for further development. A tropical depression or tropical storm is likely to form by the middle to latter part of this week while the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the central tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent. Forecaster Pasch There was more SAL when 91L was around. That has cleared out an area, where 92L is at right now. There is still some ahead of it, and a big blob behind it. But where it is right now it is in a good spot. 92L also has a lot more convection than 91L ever had associated with it. 92L still will need to have that dry air ahead of it get out of the way, or it will fizzle out as well IMHO. No closed circulation that I can pick out with my untrained eyes. blob:https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/75019b3b-06c8-416d-8b72-d0c8bb3da341 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted 8 hours ago Share Posted 8 hours ago It's a fish storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago 1 hour ago, Coach McGuirk said: It's a fish storm. Many are. And at least there’d be something interesting to follow with hopefully nobody needing to worry about potential devastation and casualties. I say hopefully nobody because there’s still some chance Bermuda will be hit. Fortunately though, Bermuda handles storms pretty well due to good elevation just off many of the beaches (hilly terrain) and very strict building codes. This includes limestone roofs! I’ve been there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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