Fall 2025 WX Discussion Thread

[Carvers Gap]

On 11/15/2025 at 7:19 PM, jaxjagman said:

Our landscapers came and did our lawn yesterday,you couldnt tell today,we had just some wind gust probably just around 15-20mph,but it was raining leaves,shitty foilage year here

Fall started early here, then paused, everything turned a muted color of normal fall colors, and then the leaves were blown off with several wind events.  

And yes, I did my leaves on Thursday and Saturday as well.  By Sunday...couldn't even tell the difference!  The wind was howling.  I did look at the wind forecast prior, but Sunday's wind caught me off guard.  I am not doing leaves prior to a wind event in the future.  LOL.

[housemtnTN]

21 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Fall started early here, then paused, everything turned a muted color of normal fall colors, and then the leaves were blown off with several wind events.  

And yes, I did my leaves on Thursday and Saturday as well.  By Sunday...couldn't even tell the difference!  The wind was howling.  I did look at the wind forecast prior, but Sunday's wind caught me off guard.  I am not doing leaves prior to a wind event in the future.  LOL.

More than half of my leaves blew away lol. Much easier cleaning them up this year!

[John1122]

We ended up with incredible fall colors but they were all gone by the time the snow hit last Monday. They had about a week of vivid peak.

[Carvers Gap]

All I can say is this...if you don't see me commenting about the LR pattern, there is a reason for that.  LOL.  The trend has not been our friend over the weekend.  But it is the LR, and things can(and likely will) change again.  I still think we go cold, but I don't have a lot of model support nor a lot of confidence in that.  Cosgrove has to be feeling good about now - he made a good forecast.  No idea if it is right, but it is well supported, and he made that when modeling said otherwise.  If forced to make a call for December(and this could change), I would say:

Week 1: AN to normal

Week 2: transition to normal or cold

Week 3: BN

Week 4: choose your own adventure book

[Carvers Gap]

It looks like we "might" (famous last words) have some consolidation w/ the Euro Weeklies.  It looks like the cold is delayed, but now holding for the last three weeks of December.  Christmas(for now!!!) looks very cold on both the ensemble and control.  It has been a while since the ensemble and the control have been singing the same song.

[Daniel Boone]

2 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

It looks like we "might" (famous last words) have some consolidation w/ the Euro Weeklies.  It looks like the cold is delayed, but now holding for the last three weeks of December.  Christmas(for now!!!) looks very cold on both the ensemble and control.  It has been a while since the ensemble and the control have been singing the same song.

Yeah, was just looking at those. If right, may be a fun Month.

[Carvers Gap]

The can kicking has paused...and the control and ensemble are now singing the same song as noted above.  They have recently been on opposite sides of things with the control winning the battle!  I say that, because we kind of hope the control might be right today.

Here the 32 day control run - temps are accentuated BN by heavy snow which falls after the 20th.  In general, temps are 10-15 BN regardless of snow cover.  This would rival any December cold outbreak.  

The second is the 7 day ensemble mean which is centered on Christmas.   The 500 pattern is nice, especially after the first week of December.  LONG way out there, but fun to look at...

For those of you who are new OR are visiting from other forums, we often put maps to brainstorm/discuss, admire, or just for future reference.  They are NOT forecasts at this range.  I prob should have placed this in the winter thread!  But.....I already have this ready to go, so will leave it here.  If a mod wants to switch it to winter, no problem.  Anyway, for new folks (or visitors) we kick a lot of stuff around in this forum.  We are often not afraid to be wrong which I think is what makes this a great place.  You can take a risk.  Another great thing about this subforum is that we have no incentive to drive numbers with posts that you will see on social media which are designed to get clicks.  If you see us post a map, we are just adding to the conversation.

Never be afraid to ask a question.  Unless the poster has a red tag(an actual meteorologist! thank you to those folks!),  the rest of us do this as a hobby.  Now, we do have a couple of folks here who have chosen not to get a red tag who are also mets.  You will figure out who they are pretty quickly.  I am definitely not one of those folks - just a fun hobby.

 

[Carvers Gap]

The Weeklies do mirror what @John1122shared earlier in the winter or fall thread(from Grit).

[John1122]

The models are pretty reflective of the MJO. When they run and the MJO slows way down in 6, the warmth carries forward. The Euro is moving it to 7/8 faster than the GFS, which means cold arriving quicker by a bit vs the GFS. 

A weak SPV, MJO in 8, a cooperative Pacific, would mean cold and unfortunately, maybe dry cold.  

I saw another person talking about analog years and 1962-63 was in there again for them. It was 70s up until December 7th-10th time frame. Then it got colder and colder. This year had a similar October with a late frost, a similar November, with a cold and snow shot, then warmed up, it was a week La Nina with a falling QBO into deep negative. 

I also saw that in La Nina years when December had a -PNA, January almost always had a +PNA. 

[John1122]

Started a December thread since the op Euro/GFS are now there. 

[Carvers Gap]

11 minutes ago, John1122 said:

Started a December thread since the op Euro/GFS are now there. 

Thanks, man.  Good points as well.