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Fall 2025 WX Discussion Thread


Carvers Gap
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On 11/15/2025 at 7:19 PM, jaxjagman said:

Our landscapers came and did our lawn yesterday,you couldnt tell today,we had just some wind gust probably just around 15-20mph,but it was raining leaves,shitty foilage year here

Fall started early here, then paused, everything turned a muted color of normal fall colors, and then the leaves were blown off with several wind events.  

And yes, I did my leaves on Thursday and Saturday as well.  By Sunday...couldn't even tell the difference!  The wind was howling.  I did look at the wind forecast prior, but Sunday's wind caught me off guard.  I am not doing leaves prior to a wind event in the future.  LOL.

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21 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Fall started early here, then paused, everything turned a muted color of normal fall colors, and then the leaves were blown off with several wind events.  

And yes, I did my leaves on Thursday and Saturday as well.  By Sunday...couldn't even tell the difference!  The wind was howling.  I did look at the wind forecast prior, but Sunday's wind caught me off guard.  I am not doing leaves prior to a wind event in the future.  LOL.

More than half of my leaves blew away lol. Much easier cleaning them up this year!

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All I can say is this...if you don't see me commenting about the LR pattern, there is a reason for that.  LOL.  The trend has not been our friend over the weekend.  But it is the LR, and things can(and likely will) change again.  I still think we go cold, but I don't have a lot of model support nor a lot of confidence in that.  Cosgrove has to be feeling good about now - he made a good forecast.  No idea if it is right, but it is well supported, and he made that when modeling said otherwise.  If forced to make a call for December(and this could change), I would say:

Week 1: AN to normal

Week 2: transition to normal or cold

Week 3: BN

Week 4: choose your own adventure book

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