Invest 91L (50/80)

[olafminesaw]

Even with the GFS coming south to start the run, if I take it's position at hour 78: there have been 20 storms since 1980 to pass within 100 miles of that point in September, of which only 2 made landfall in the US, the rest recurved well east. The two exceptions are Hugo and Georges (1998). Georges moved through the heart of the Greater Antilles hitting every island along the way. It is the furthest south of this grouping in the Caribbean as well, so a track south of the islands would be unprecedented 

[GaWx]

12Z:
-Euro: has a TS in the MDR that later weakens to a weak low as it crosses the Lesser Antilles and then goes through Caribbean disorganized/very weak

-UKMET: no TC again/low too weak to be classified a TD