Tropical Storm Barry

[WxWatcher007]

An organizing area of low pressure in the Bay of Campeche now has 70% odds of development, with tropical storm headlines likely later today or tonight. 

Although it will be short lived, a landfall is expected Monday along the coast of Mexico.

Recon is en route to investigate. 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sat Jun 28 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Bay of Campeche (AL91):
Recent surface observations, satellite imagery, and radar data from 
Mexico suggests a well-defined surface circulation is developing 
with the area of low pressure located in the Bay of Campeche near 
the Mexican coastline. In addition, shower and thunderstorm activity 
is also starting to show signs of organization. If these trends 
continue, a tropical depression is likely to form, possibly as soon 
as this afternoon, in the Bay of Campeche. This system is forecast 
to continue moving west-northwestward this weekend towards eastern 
Mexico, ultimately moving inland by Monday. An Air Force Reserve 
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is en route to investigate the system, and 
interests in southeastern Mexico should monitor the progress of this 
system. Tropical Storm Watches or Warnings could be required for 
portions of the Mexican Gulf coast as soon as this afternoon. 
Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, locally heavy rains are 
ongoing over portions of Guatemala and southeastern Mexico, and will 
continue during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin

 

[WxWatcher007]

Looks like a pretty good wind shift to me. Probably will start getting advisories at 5 for a TD. 

[WxWatcher007]

Tropical Depression Two Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022025
400 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

The area of low pressure that entered in the Bay of Campeche early 
this morning (Invest 91L) has slowly improved in organization 
through the day. Convection had been mostly bursting on the southern 
portion of the circulation, but is more recently starting to fill in 
over the northern side. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance mission 
has been sampling the system this afternoon, and they were able to 
close off a circulation center, albeit with not a whole lot of wind. 
This wind field matches the satellite-derived scatterometer wind 
data at 1619 UTC which showed a closed circulation, but with peak 
winds of only 24 kt. However, given the improvement in convective 
organization with the well-defined circulation noted, advisories are 
being initiated on Tropical Depression Two this afternoon, with 
maximum sustained winds of 25 kt, matching the T1.5/25-kt estimate 
provided by TAFB.

The initial motion of the tropical depression appears to be off to 
the west-northwest at 290/6 kt. This motion with a slight bend a 
little more northward is expected through the weekend until the 
system moves inland over mainland Mexico just after 36 h. The track 
guidance overall appears to be in pretty good agreement, though with 
the ECMWF on the south end and GFS on the north end of the guidance 
envelope. The initial NHC track forecast splits the difference and 
is quite close to the latest TVCN and HCCA consensus aids.

The depression's wind field is still somewhat broad and in the 
formative stages. In addition, the environmental conditions are not 
ideal, with some 20-25 kt of west-southwesterly vertical wind shear 
diagnosed by SHIPS guidance that should prevent more robust 
intensification of this cyclone. On the other hand, sea-surface 
temperatures are fairly warm (28-29 C) and there is ample mid-level 
moisture to sustain the convective activity. Thus, some slow 
intensification seems likely, and the intensity forecast shows the 
depression becoming a tropical storm before making landfall in 
Mexico. However, once inland after 36 h, the system should quickly 
weaken and dissipate by the early portion of next week over the 
rugged high terrain of central Mexico. This intensity forecast is 
largely in good agreement with the consensus aid HCCA and the most 
recent HWRF hurricane-regional model run. 

Given the forecast for the depression to become a tropical storm 
before landfall, the government of Mexico has issued a Tropical 
Storm Warning for a portion of their eastern Gulf coastline. 

Key Messages:

1. Tropical Storm Conditions are expected on Sunday for portions of 
the Gulf coast of Mexico where a Tropical Storm Warning is in 
effect.

2. Heavy rainfall associated with Tropical Depression Two will 
impact portions of northeastern Mexico. This rainfall may produce 
isolated flash and urban flooding.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  28/2100Z 19.3N  94.2W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  29/0600Z 19.7N  95.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  29/1800Z 20.8N  96.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  30/0600Z 21.9N  97.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  30/1800Z 22.1N  98.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 60H  01/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Papin

[BarryStantonGBP]

Wait do I get a hurricane named after me

[smokeybandit]

14 hours ago, BarryStantonGBP said:

Wait do I get a hurricane named after me

Only if you promise to donate your strength to the season's ACE score.

[BarryStantonGBP]

41 minutes ago, smokeybandit said:

Only if you promise to donate your strength to the season's ACE score.

Atlantic - Caribbean Sea - Gulf of America
Tropical Weather Outlook (en Español*) 800 AM EDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion 1215 UTC Sun Jun 29 2025
Tropical Storm Barry  Satellite | Buoys | Grids | Storm Archive ...AIRCRAFT DATA INDICATES DEPRESSION HAS BECOME TROPICAL STORM BARRY STANTON... ...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUING OVER EASTERN MEXICO FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

[GaWx]

 I guess 2025 may be the year of the ham sandwich! Technically though this may be more like a Rueben due to it being a threat to land.

 Regardless, congrats@BarryStantonGBP, for having a storm named after you!

[BarryStantonGBP]

37 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 I guess 2025 may be the year of the ham sandwich! Technically though this may be more like a Rueben due to it being a threat to land.

 Regardless, congrats@BarryStantonGBP, for having a storm named after you!

indeed sir

[CheeselandSkies]

Yet another meteorologically unremarkable tropical system overperforms in the impacts/fatalities department due to freshwater flooding. 

[BarryStantonGBP]

Why are Wikipedia users refusing to acknowledge that Barry was responsible for all those deaths in texas

[Normandy Ho]

Because we live in a country full of stupid people who deny reality, logic, and common sense 

[GaWx]

How remnants of Tropical Storm Barry are to blame for Texas floods

 

The tropical moisture from the remnants of Tropical Storm Barry, combined with a stationary storm complex (which provided the lift) that was already sitting over Texas, resulted in slow-moving heavy downpours that produced prolific rainfall totals over a short period of time.

https://www.winknews.com/weather/explainers/how-remnants-of-tropical-storm-barry-are-to-blame-for-texas-floods/article_9eaa0636-38cd-4cc3-a058-5f5a926cb314.html

[BarryStantonGBP]

1 hour ago, Normandy Ho said:

Because we live in a country full of stupid people who deny reality, logic, and common sense 

 

8 minutes ago, GaWx said:

How remnants of Tropical Storm Barry are to blame for Texas floods

 

The tropical moisture from the remnants of Tropical Storm Barry, combined with a stationary storm complex (which provided the lift) that was already sitting over Texas, resulted in slow-moving heavy downpours that produced prolific rainfall totals over a short period of time.

https://www.winknews.com/weather/explainers/how-remnants-of-tropical-storm-barry-are-to-blame-for-texas-floods/article_9eaa0636-38cd-4cc3-a058-5f5a926cb314.html

If you go on the tropical storm Barry discussion page on wikipedia

you have brainlets like drpdw saying the death toll from the floods shouldn’t be associated with barry

despite Papin claiming they’re from Barry (which they are)

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Talk:Tropical_Storm_Barry_(2025)

[BarryStantonGBP]

20 minutes ago, BarryStantonGBP said:

 

If you go on the tropical storm Barry discussion page on wikipedia

you have brainlets like drpdw saying the death toll from the floods shouldn’t be associated with barry

despite Papin claiming they’re from Barry (which they are)

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Talk:Tropical_Storm_Barry_(2025)

Nvm they actually did it after the bickering lmao

 

Tropical Storm Barry

Barry at peak intensity in the Bay of Campecheon June 29
Meteorological history
Formed	June 28, 2025
Dissipated	June 30, 2025
Tropical storm
1-minute sustained (SSHWS/NWS)
Highest winds	45 mph (75 km/h)
Lowest pressure	1006 mbar (hPa); 29.71 inHg
Overall effects
Fatalities	5 direct, 91+ indirect
Damage	>$3.22 million (2025 USD)
Areas affected	Belize, Yucatan Peninsula, Eastern Mexico, Southern United States
IBTrACS
Part of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season

[BarryStantonGBP]

46 minutes ago, GaWx said:

How remnants of Tropical Storm Barry are to blame for Texas floods

 

The tropical moisture from the remnants of Tropical Storm Barry, combined with a stationary storm complex (which provided the lift) that was already sitting over Texas, resulted in slow-moving heavy downpours that produced prolific rainfall totals over a short period of time.

https://www.winknews.com/weather/explainers/how-remnants-of-tropical-storm-barry-are-to-blame-for-texas-floods/article_9eaa0636-38cd-4cc3-a058-5f5a926cb314.html

 

How remnants of Tropical Storm Barry are to blame for Texas floods

• The Weather Authority; Meteorologist: Josh Green
•  
  • Jul 7, 2025 Updated 1 hr ago
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Areas in Western and Central Texas experienced devastating flash floods over Independence Day weekend killing scores of people, and the National Weather Service (NWS) says the cause was remnants of Tropical Storm Barry.

Barry made landfall along the east coast of Mexico on June 29, and nearly a week later, long after losing its tropical characteristics, it became a main contributing factor in the Central Texas flooding.

• RELATED: Texas floods: What led to the devastating flooding

 

So, how did it cause this much of an issue after weakening for several days?

The answer to that lies in the moisture content of the air.

 

Long after tropical systems fizzle out, they can still carry loads of tropical moisture.

Tropical moisture is exactly the fuel required for heavy rain events.

This moisture was forced northward into Texas due to the high mountains in central Mexico that blocked it from moving further westward into Mexico.

In order for large rainfall events like this one, you need both the moisture and the “lift” in the atmosphere.

The tropical moisture from the remnants of Tropical Storm Barry, combined with a stationary storm complex (which provided the lift) that was already sitting over Texas, resulted in slow-moving heavy downpours that produced prolific rainfall totals over a short period of time.

[Stx_Thunder]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

How remnants of Tropical Storm Barry are to blame for Texas floods

 

The tropical moisture from the remnants of Tropical Storm Barry, combined with a stationary storm complex (which provided the lift) that was already sitting over Texas, resulted in slow-moving heavy downpours that produced prolific rainfall totals over a short period of time.

https://www.winknews.com/weather/explainers/how-remnants-of-tropical-storm-barry-are-to-blame-for-texas-floods/article_9eaa0636-38cd-4cc3-a058-5f5a926cb314.html

 

The remnant circulation or MCV of TS Barry was definitely there. I even saw it earlier last week on TX regional radar at night when there was less deep convective activity around it as it crawled north-northwest to north into NE Mexico (west of Laredo). Before crossing the mid Rio Grande into the Edwards Plateau region in TX later in the week.