2025 forecast contests -- enter for December 2025 contest (deadline 06z Dec 1st) and also for winter snowfall forecast contest (see latest post in thread for details)

[Roger Smith]

Tracking anomalies and projected end of month ...

_____________________________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ORD _ATL _IAH ___DEN _PHX _SEA

_____ (anom 1-16) __________ -9.2 _ -8.7 _ -7.7 __-10.7 _-4.9 _-3.2 __+8.3 _ +5.1 _ +6.4

_____ (p anom 1-31) ________ -5.0 _ -4.5 _ -4.0 __-6.0 _-2.5 _-1.0 __+6.0 _ +3.5 _ +2.5

 

(17th) _ A more variable regime will cut into large negative anomalies in eastern and central regions. It will stay generally mild in the western regions but SEA will have a larger reversal as arctic air builds in for a while later in the month. 

 

[PositiveEPOEnjoyer]

6 hours ago, Roger Smith said:

Tracking anomalies and projected end of month ...

_____________________________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ORD _ATL _IAH ___DEN _PHX _SEA

_____ (anom 1-16) __________ -9.2 _ -8.7 _ -7.7 __-10.7 _-4.9 _-3.2 __+8.3 _ +5.1 _ +6.4

_____ (p anom 1-31) ________ -5.0 _ -4.5 _ -4.0 __-6.0 _-2.5 _-1.0 __+6.0 _ +3.5 _ +2.5

 

(17th) _ A more variable regime will cut into large negative anomalies in eastern and central regions. It will stay generally mild in the western regions but SEA will have a larger reversal as arctic air builds in for a while later in the month. 

 

No chance ORD finishes at -6. Something like -3 or so is more likely to be the final departure, maybe even -2 if we get a few super warm days.

[so_whats_happening]

Man went for a warmer BOS than anticipated. Also the lack of a break in the warmth out west a bit of a surprise.

[Roger Smith]

Yes, Edmonton Alberta is running 12 F below normal (7 C below) but that colder regime has stayed locked into central Canada most of the last week to ten days. It hasn't even been below average here near the US border.

Just a general note to all participants, I will open up a thread for 2026 contest forecasts and see how that goes, perhaps we will continue on, and perhaps not. Depends on level of interest, it's easy enough for me to keep doing what I normally do but at the same time, I don't want people to enter out of anything other than an enthusiasm for tackling the challenge. 

So if anyone happens to post Jan 2026 forecasts after this post, I will move them over to the new thread which will be open almost as soon as I post this. Happy new year, I am not going to post any preliminary scoring for December, we will let the results be a total surprise on January 1st or 2nd.