2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season

[BarryStantonGBP]

45 minutes ago, jconsor said:

Erin left a heck of a cold wake across the nw Atlantic, while the ENSO regions have cooled dramatically past two weeks. How will this influence Atlantic hurricane activity this month, and what are the two areas I am watching besides the E. Atl system?

I go into depth on the large-scale factors for the next few weeks including Sep analogs, while looking at the "elephant in the room" that is being largely ignored IMHO because most tropical enthusiasts are focusing on the East Atlantic system.

https://hurricanehacker.substack.com/p/the-times-they-are-changin

 

13 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

EPS and GEFS both show notable upticks in activity beyond the 10th. As were in the peak of hurricane season that is not surprising. The good news is that at least through mid month, the eastern trough hangs on which continues to be a deterrent to any storm approaching from the east. I think the CAG seen on some GFS runs is overblown as it tends to do but with La Niña developing and a tendency for shear to decrease this time of year I’d expect to start looking to the carribean and southern gulf. SSTs continue to decrease off the east coast from NC northward and I fished Friday out of Morehead and can confirm how much it has cooled. Water was 76-77 until about 35 miles out and warmed to 82 in the stream. Contrast to when I fished last week of July in same location and the temp never fell below 83 from the inlet to the stream and the stream was 87. That’s a huge difference in energy available of anything threatens NC-northward from a month ago. To me, this feels like the lid is starting to come off a bit in the Atlantic and mid month looks to be quite active 

Did you see the thing in the gulf on the ensembles lads

[GaWx]

18 hours ago, GaWx said:

 The 12Z EPS has a notable signal for a TC formation (~25%) in the S Gulf with them moving mainly N to WNW and then hitting or threatening to hit from NE MX through TX/LA. But this could be mainly gone on the 0Z for all we know since this run looks much different vs earlier runs and its way out in the unreliable late week 2.

 Not surprisingly after a sudden uptick on yesterday’s 12Z EPS for the W Gulf late in week 2, the 0Z backed down notably, especially for TX threats although it still has a couple of W Gulf TCs with a 955 into LA and a 990 mb into MX. The 12Z had had ~8 TS+ including a 927 into LA, 968 into TX, and 961 into MX along with 3 hurricanes threatening at the end still in the Gulf.

[BarryStantonGBP]

4 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Not surprisingly after a sudden uptick on yesterday’s 12Z EPS for the W Gulf late in week 2, the 0Z backed down notably, especially for TX threats although it still has a couple of W Gulf TCs with a 955 into LA and a 990 mb into MX. The 12Z had had ~8 TS+ including a 927 into LA, 968 into TX, and 961 into MX along with 3 hurricanes threatening at the end still in the Gulf.

I’ve seen GEFS 0z with some intense members 

thoughts?

[GaWx]

9 minutes ago, BarryStantonGBP said:

I’ve seen GEFS 0z with some intense members 

thoughts?

Good point about the 0Z GEFS in the Gulf. I suspect that considering the model consensus, very warm Gulf, and yesterday’s progged MJO having phase 1 or 8 then on GEFS and EPS (I haven’t seen today’s yet) that that area will likely have a H or MH threat near midmonth.

[BarryStantonGBP]

14 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Good point about the 0Z GEFS in the Gulf. I suspect that considering the model consensus, very warm Gulf, and yesterday’s progged MJO having phase 1 or 8 then on GEFS and EPS (I haven’t seen today’s yet) that that area will likely have a H or MH threat near midmonth.

Do you see any other areas? I do know that @jconsorclaims he saw 2 other threats including an even fatter elephant in the room

i assume the fat elephant is the gulf threat

Whats the other one mate? 

[GaWx]

17 minutes ago, BarryStantonGBP said:

Do you see any other areas? I do know that @jconsorclaims he saw 2 other threats including an even fatter elephant in the room

i assume the fat elephant is the gulf threat

Whats the other one mate? 

 I’m not aware of any other notable potential threat to the US as of yet. The MDR 30/70 has only a relatively small chance as of this very early period though that obviously could change later. That one could threaten the E Caribbean, too, though it’s still not a high threat as of now.

 Beyond that, who knows but a weak La Niña and recent late season activity means be extra wary for late Sept/first half of Oct.

[BarryStantonGBP]

3 hours ago, jconsor said:

How will this influence Atlantic hurricane activity this month, and what are the two areas I am watching besides the E. Atl system?

I go into depth on the large-scale factors for the next few weeks including Sep analogs, while looking at the "elephant in the room" that is being largely ignored IMHO because most tropical enthusiasts are focusing on the East Atlantic system.

See above for what jconsor said

 

43 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 I’m not aware of any other notable potential threat to the US as of yet. The MDR 30/70 has only a relatively small chance as of this very early period though that obviously could change later. That one could threaten the E Caribbean, too, though it’s still not a high threat as of now.

 Beyond that, who knows but a weak La Niña and recent late season activity means be extra wary for late Sept/first half of Oct.

 

[GaWx]

4 minutes ago, BarryStantonGBP said:

See above for what jconsor said

 

 

I know of only the Gulf for near midmonth right now. I don’t know what Yaakov is referring to for a 2nd area as it’s paywalled.

[BarryStantonGBP]

31 minutes ago, GaWx said:

I know of only the Gulf for near midmonth right now. I don’t know what Yaakov is referring to for a 2nd area as it’s paywalled.

I’m trying to get the article because it said I can get it for free in the app but a phone number is required to read it and British phone numbers are blocked for verification bloody hell 

[BarryStantonGBP]

 

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[dseagull]

9 hours ago, BarryStantonGBP said:

I’m trying to get the article because it said I can get it for free in the app but a phone number is required to read it and British phone numbers are blocked for verification bloody hell 

You have driven regular posters away, that may have otherwise posted during relatively quiet periods.   Good job feeding the exodus away from old school forums towards Facebook and other social media...

 

...Mate...

[GaWx]

3 hours ago, dseagull said:

You have driven regular posters away, that may have otherwise posted during relatively quiet periods.   Good job feeding the exodus away from old school forums towards Facebook and other social media...

 

...Mate...

 Like his style or not he does keep the threads lively as he regularly provides content.