La Niña peak strength prediction poll

[George001]

Let’s do this again. Last year for the El Niño, based on the poll results voters overwhelmingly favored a strong El Niño. That ended up being correct, with the official trimonthly peak being just short of 2.0C (ended up being rounded up to 2). Coming off a borderline super nino that is already beginning to weaken rapidly, both historical precedence and the current guidance favors a La Niña for next winter. 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

I feel like we're overdue a strong la nina season. The last was 2010-11, which means we are in the longest stretch without a strong la nina since the 17-year gap between 1955-56 and 1973-74.

I just don't want another moderate la nina season. We've just had 3 consecutive ones before the strong el nino.

[George001]

The subsurface is already down to around -.8C, early signs appear to be pointing to a strong event.

[Yanksfan]

1 hour ago, George001 said:

The subsurface is already down to around -.8C, early signs appear to be pointing to a strong event.

It won’t matter if it’s moderate or strong for how next winter turns out for our area without a dominate  -NAO.

[George001]

Some of the guidance has backed off a bit, but the latest obs show that rapid cooling is occurring in regions 1.2 and 3 already. The early development of this Niña could potentially indicate that the more aggressive guidance has the right idea. Weaker events don’t usually start developing until later.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

On 3/25/2024 at 6:43 AM, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

I feel like we're overdue a strong la nina season. The last was 2010-11, which means we are in the longest stretch without a strong la nina since the 17-year gap between 1955-56 and 1973-74.

I just don't want another moderate la nina season. We've just had 3 consecutive ones before the strong el nino.

Keep in mind the global warming trend, which is about +0.3 for ENSO since the 1950s. 

I think subsurface is strong, but not quite -5c to -6c like you see in Strong developing Nina's. I'll go with borderline Moderate/Strong, and say it hits -1.5c on the ONI