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La Niña peak strength prediction poll


1. Going by the official trimonthly ONI definition, how strong will this Niña be at the peak?  

15 members have voted

  1. 1. 1. Going by the official trimonthly ONI definition, how strong will this Niña be at the peak?

    • No La Niña (>-.5)
    • Weak (-.5 to -1)
      0
    • Moderate (-1 to -1.5)
    • Strong (<-1.5)


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Let’s do this again. Last year for the El Niño, based on the poll results voters overwhelmingly favored a strong El Niño. That ended up being correct, with the official trimonthly peak being just short of 2.0C (ended up being rounded up to 2). Coming off a borderline super nino that is already beginning to weaken rapidly, both historical precedence and the current guidance favors a La Niña for next winter. 

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  • 2 weeks later...
1 hour ago, George001 said:

The subsurface is already down to around -.8C, early signs appear to be pointing to a strong event.

It won’t matter if it’s moderate or strong for how next winter turns out for our area without a dominate  -NAO.

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