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Severe Weather 6-2-23


cheese007
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Decent ENH risk setup across western TX. Something to watch anyways as we transition to the summer doldrums

 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 020557

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1257 AM CDT Fri Jun 02 2023

   Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
   WESTERN TEXAS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing very large hail,
   severe gusts and a couple of tornadoes are possible this afternoon
   and evening across parts of the southern High Plains.

   ...Synopsis...
   A relatively benign upper pattern will be situated across the CONUS
   today, characterized by weak upper ridging east of the MS River,
   with diffuse upper troughing occurring across the western and
   central CONUS. A broad fetch of adequate low-level moisture between
   the Rockies and the MS River will promote isolated to scattered
   thunderstorm development, especially along the High Plains, where
   surface lee troughing will enhance lift for robust convection. A 500
   mb jet streak, associated with a mid-level impulse embedded in the
   larger-scale upper trough, will overspread the southern High Plains
   by afternoon, promoting a risk for severe thunderstorms. All severe
   hazards will be possible, especially across western TX.

   ...Southern High Plains...
   As the aforementioned 500 mb jet max overspreads the southern High
   Plains by afternoon peak heating, a dryline will sharpen from the
   CO/KS border to the Trans Pecos region in southwest TX. Ahead of the
   dryline, mid 60s F surface dewpoints, overspread by 7.5-8.5 C/km
   mid-level lapse rates, will contribute to 2500-4000 J/kg MLCAPE,
   with the higher CAPE values likely across western TX. Meanwhile,
   veering winds with height in the 850-700 mb layer, overspread by the
   500 mb jet streak, will contribute to weakly curved but elongated
   hodographs and corresponding 40-50 kts of effective bulk shear.
   Supercells are expected to be the initial storm mode, with 2+ inch
   diameter hail and perhaps a couple of tornadoes possible. However,
   the supercells are expected to rapidly congeal into one or more MCSs
   just a few hours after convective initiation, from eastern CO into
   western TX. The steeper lapse rates and associated higher amounts of
   buoyancy across western TX, coinciding with the axis of the 500 mb
   jet, may promote the development of a longer-lived, mature MCS with
   embedded bowing features. Several severe gusts are possible, a few
   of which may reach 65 kts.

   ..Squitieri/Kerr.. 06/02/2023

Screenshot_20230602_061330.jpg

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