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DanLarsen34

February 12 severe weather event

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Wanted to get a thread started on this. SPC has a 30% area outlined already in the day 4 forecast on Wednesday (February 12). A squall line looks likely based off the latest model runs, but the SPC also mentions the potential for supercells posing all severe hazards. 
 

 

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Honestly, the latest GFS and NAM runs of this system look fairly mediocre IMO. I think we could still see some fairly robust convection, but likely will be a linear storm mode, like you initially said. Definitely will be interesting to see how this system plays out.

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Need ENH along north of I-20 from JAN to BMX, including MSU and UAH (latter or universities not airports). Temps/Dews are way ahead of progged. Meh soundings on models are worthless. Winds ARE turning with height. CAPE with lifting WF going into evening in Dixie. What could go wrong? A lot!

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44 minutes ago, nrgjeff said:

Need ENH along north of I-20 from JAN to BMX, including MSU and UAH (latter or universities not airports). Temps/Dews are way ahead of progged. Meh soundings on models are worthless. Winds ARE turning with height. CAPE with lifting WF going into evening in Dixie. What could go wrong? A lot!

Certainly seems like a pretty impressive environment right now given the slight risk. Interested in how this develops. 

Screen Shot 2020-02-12 at 4.51.34 PM.png

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