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About FHSC Sam

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    I'm Actually Asleep...
  • Birthday 01/03/1999

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  • Location:
    Americus KS
  1. I'm holding out hope that they will, although either way, this is a highly volatile system and regardless will probably produce several tornadoes, just not as widespread as it could be.
  2. I agree, it probably depends on how things align
  3. Agreed. and it'll be interesting to see what the NAM brings into the picture. And honestly, this far North, in E Central KS, things have had some time to dry out a bit, so that might just depend on how this trough Sunday plays out. And while i'm on that topic, in my opinion, Sunday actually looks pretty volatile, but Tuesday and the rest of the week has stolen most of the attention from it.
  4. I concur, although minus the strong tornado mention, this system is nothing to overlook.
  5. It's impressive to me that they're bring up the possibility of strong tornadoes this soon. Yes, there is an appreciable risk, but it seems slightly presumptuous to bring that up when we're still six days out. Just shows the potential this system has, regardless of the current model trend.
  6. Not sure, although I dont remember ever seeing one
  7. 12z GFS looks pretty impressive, area of focus likely North-Central OK through Central, SE Central KS.
  8. Honestly, at this point it wouldn't surprise me to see numbers in that range, this could be one of those events..
  9. From looking at models and extended forecast discussions, it appears that severe weather is possibly Wednesday, April 1st through Friday, April 3rd. SPC has outlined a slight risk for portions of Eastern KS, Northwestern MO, Eastern NE, Western IA, Extreme Southeastern SD, and Extreme Sounthern WI for Wednesday. They have also outlined 15% areas for D4 and D5 in areas of Dixie Alley for Thursday and Friday. Opinions?
  10. Which does make sense. I've noticed that, while there have been less significant tornadic events, the few we've seen have been much more intense. I've been watching storm report trends from years past, and that does seem to make sense. Either way, I'm thinking 2015's storm season should provide more information, and we can watch for trends like the ones you mentioned.
  11. So, here's something somewhat more off-topic, but not by a whole lot. We've been seeing the decrease in tornadoes across the States, but my question is, is it part of a pattern that will reverse in time, or is there an underlying cause, such as climate change resulting in a shift or decrease in prime setups in the spring? I'm still more enty level to severe weather and atmospheric sciences, so I'm still learning how to figure this out. Thanks
  12. Gonna see if the GFS continues trending better conditions for Saturday, and same for NAM, although NAM hasn't been as good. Waiting for the 0z runs...
  13. Assuming Sunday does end up with a better setup, I'm still thinking it's going to be a multicell or line setup rather than a discrete supercell type event.
  14. What's the Euro showing it terms on instability there? EDIT- My bad... forgot ECMWF doesn't show that.
  15. Agreed, although at this point... that's just one possible scenario out of the many that are becoming apparent...