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Roger Smith

2018 Temperature forecast contest now becomes "Regional Rumble" -- enter by May 1st 06z

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The monthly temperature forecast contest has been a feature of this forum and its predecessor (Eastern) for a long time. But it's hosted in the general interest forum and so as host, I would like to broaden the appeal and get more people involved in the contest. To help with that, the contest will now be more than just an individual competition, although that part remains. Now it's also going to take best scores from each regional forum and determine a champion in the "Regional Rumble."

You can enter both here in this thread, or over at the home thread which is here:

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/50671-january-2018-temperature-forecast-contest-regional-rumble-begins/

The contest asks you to predict the temperature anomalies in F deg for nine locations:

(eastern) DCA, NYC, BOS

(central) ORD, ATL, IAH

(western) DEN, PHX, SEA

The regional aspect will take best scores for each of those three groups of three stations, and that may come from different contributors within the regional forum's entrants. And if you enter all twelve months of the year you will be participating in the individual contest as well. 

All rules can be reviewed over at the thread linked above, but basically you get a score out of 100 based on how close you are to the actual anomaly (relative to 1981-2010). You lose 2 points (in most cases) for each 0.1 deg error. Months that are either more anomalous than +/- 5 degrees or that score worse than 60 for top score go to secondary scoring rules that avoid a lot of zero scores for different forecasts.

So with that said, here's your easy portal for entering the forecast contest, you don't have to go "over there" but instead you can stay in the comfort of your own regional forum and enter from here. I will collect all forecasts posted here and reproduce them in a table of forecasts. This thread will stay open with titles changing as we approach monthly deadlines.

Usually the forecasts are due by 06z of the 1st of each month with time penalties (1% per 4h late for 36h, then 1% per hour). This first time out with New Years and the storm interests, the deadline is shifted to the 4th at 08z. 

If you enter, thanks and good luck!

(this thread will appear in all regional forums)

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NYC have a strong line-up (about six of last year's top ten) and some other regional forums are relying on one entrant so far, so we have decided to extend the deadline to end of Wednesday January 3rd (technically, 08z 4th for PST), and we would all love to see a few more of all the other forums taking part. So, no late penalty in effect until Thursday. See the above post for all other information. 

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This is a tempting exercise. So it is monthly anomaly for each city. My operational focus is the Mid-South to Mid-Atlantic, but at a monthly scale I'm already looking nationwide. Anyone else want to join the Tennessee Valley region? If one of us chokes, the other could make up for it. Hopefully we don't all choke at the same time like Kansas basketball brick-fest and lazy D, lol!

UPDATE: I went ahead and entered on the main thread. Join me. 

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February contest and Regional Rumble now open at this location, or enter here if you prefer.

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/50880-february-2018-temperature-forecast-contest-and-regional-rumble/

Your regional forum has three entrants and doing reasonably well for January based on provisional scoring now available in the January thread. More entries welcome. 

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Jaxjagman is doing pretty well for your forum ... you might want to back him up in later months. I'm playing solo myself against the NYC powerhouse and it's an unequal struggle but I'm ahead (blind luck mostly and my occasional helpers). 

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