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Chinook

Mountain West Discussion

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Yeah. Its a bit of a shame, since the -NAO is usually cold/wet for us if it comes in Jan-Apr, but not in La Nina. My low was 63F this morning, I think that's the earliest date for a 60+ low on record here. Its possible the morning low isn't the real low, the dew point is down to -7, so with darkness we should see the heat die off. I'm looking forward to seeing if the storm coming this week dives further south than forecast than anticipated, with the activity in the tropical east pacific and the big MJO wave.

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This large storm system is now getting into the short range time period.  NWS Rapid City has a winter storm watch, including possible blizzard conditions, for western South Dakota (flat areas and Black Hills.) Higher snow amounts are typical for March and April in the Black Hills.

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Valentine, Nebraska had 84 degrees yesterday, as well as extreme northeast Colorado. Now, these areas have a blizzard warning. Areas of the plains still have pleasant weather right now. This is insane, 84 degrees to blizzard warning.

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Been enjoying my MJO phase two this weekend, lows in the 30s and highs under 70ish are wonderful this time of this year. I've been playing with my Summer analogs a bit, and one idea that popped out is an early appearance of the heat (90s) but relatively few of them. A hot May, early June, then monsoon comes on hard. Friday was nuts here, 54F at midnight, but only 40F at 3 pm. High wind and dust everywhere all day.

The subsurface tropical waters in the Pacific have warmed up a lot, and have begun spreading East and toward the surface. We're going to see some kind of El Nino try to come on in July I think. SOI is indicative of the collapse I'd say, daily values of +31 to -17 this month to date.

Equatorial Pacific Temperature Depth Anomalies Animation

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21 hours ago, Chinook said:

The GFS, Canadian, and Euro all show snow for Colorado in the 6-day time frame.

Models are converging nicely on a very wet event in my area. Will be interested to see how much accumulation we get with all the warmth leading up to the storm. I’m thinking 8-12 depth Saturday morning between melting and compaction - sure would be great to reduce wildfire risk!

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This type of *fire* outlook from the SPC is becoming more common for the NM/Texas area. Note. One fire of 246000 acres exists now in Oklahoma.

-

 Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0112 PM CDT Mon Apr 16 2018

   Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

   ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE DESERT
   SOUTHWEST TO THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF EASTERN ARIZONA TO THE
   SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...

   Dangerous fire-weather conditions are still expected ...

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It's not that surprising - we had a high of 79F with clouds, but still have dew points under 0F. It's a recurrence of the bs from December & January.

All of the techniques I can think of maintain an enhanced chance of a huge June for precipitation, with above average more likely than normal. There are already hints at Gulf/Subtropical moisture starting to return to NM in the coming days/weeks.

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There have been wind gusts of 35mph to 80mph near the metro areas, with some blowing dust on the open plains.

-

NWS Boulder‏ @NWSBoulder  2h hours ago

Wind gust of 83 mph recorded at the National Wind Technology Center by Highway 93. Wind gust of 69 mph at NCAR Mesa in Boulder.

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Fri- Saturday will be pretty wet and snowy around here. NWS Boulder is calling for 8-14" of snow for mountains above 9000 ft, and it seems that the plains will get 0.4" to 1.0" of rain. I think a mix of rain and snow is possible from 6000 ft to 9000 ft. Maybe we will finally get some rain on those fires in Colorado plains/ Oklahoma.

IxzohFa.png

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On 3/30/2018 at 5:35 PM, mayjawintastawm said:

Having lived in Philly and Allentown PA for a while, more likely that the cities will miss out and the highlands (WV mtns, SW PA, Poconos) will get some. It's really too late in the season for the coastal plain to get anything more than a wet flake or two in the rain.

Nope...the PHL to NYC area saw 3-6" in the 4/2 event.

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12 minutes ago, mayjawintastawm said:

that was amazing wasn't it?? One more piece of evidence that this winter was really weird.

Yes, it was an incredible event here. Had 6" in the Bronx on April 2nd...stuck to major roads such as Pelham Pkey, shown in the picture. Central Park reported 5.5". The Mar 1-April 20 period has been the 3rd coldest since records began in 1869.

20180402_075341-756x1008.jpg

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My area has gotten 0.45" to 0.55" of rain/snow. Some reports from this morning show 0.5" to 1.0" of snow here. I saw snow on the grass and elevated surfaces. Some of it even melted before I even got up. KFTG radar was non-operational as of about 8PM or 9PM last night. Oops, bad time to break the radar.

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Yeah, I think we got about 0.5" total as well, including 2" of wet snow. Seems like the radar has been going down more often when we have these minor events. Would have been nice to know where the back edge was, hard to see from Pueblo or Cheyenne.

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