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March 11-13th Severe Weather Potential


Anti tornado

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GFS has 3 surface lows ejecting over the great lakes regions. During that time frame, dew points look more than sufficient given they are 60+ to the Chicago area. 

Saturday (3/11) appears to be a shortwave trough in advance of a more negatively tilted trough on Sunday (3/12). Seems to be a slow moving system that will take several days to move through our sub forum. Monday (3/13) appears to be a threat for the SE area (Kentucky/Ohio)

It appears the Euro is the general ballpark as well. 

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3 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

Way too early for this, come on now.

Agreed. 

Just a heads up to Anti tornado, we have a Medium/Long range thread and a Short/Medium range severe thread which is where this type of stuff should go. If we get close to an event and it looks worthwhile for a separate thread then that can happen in the days leading up to it. 

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SPC already has a D6 15% area outlined for the Mid-South, and does include W KY, SE MO and far S IL:

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/

...Saturday/day 6 AR/MO to KY/TN...
   There is some consistency in recent operational model runs and
   associated ensembles for a low-amplitude shortwave trough, and a
   related surface cyclone, to move from the east-central Plains to the
   lower OH and TN Valleys by Saturday night.  It appears likely that
   the warm sector of this cyclone will be relatively warm/unstable
   given several days of moisture return from the south and a steep
   lapse-rate plume from the west.  Given the low-amplitude nature of
   this system, some predictability/timing concerns will likely linger
   to within 2-3 days of the potential event.  Still, the quality of
   the warm sector and strengthening wind profiles with the
   wave/cyclogenesis appear supportive of an organized severe-storm
   risk, even if the exact details of the threat area will probably
   change in later outlooks.
 

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