Mountain West- Winter

[ValpoVike]

25 minutes ago, Chinook said:

The 00z GFS had 2.0" to 3.5" QPF for the Front Range cities within the full 384 hour run. That is not all snow. Actually this is getting to the time of year when we could get an upslope rainstorm. Hopefully the mountains will get at least 2.0" liquid equivalent of snow over the next 2 weeks.

Yes, the end of month looks like it could potentially be promising.  I hope so, we need it badly up here.

[jdrenken]

On February 20, 2017 at 10:27 PM, Chinook said:

I don't completely understand it. I thought the Bering Strait Rule applied to troughs east of the Mississippi River, but I have no idea how that connects with troughs farther west.

Trends in the models still show decent snow for Fort Collins and Cheyenne. The GFS can't decide what to do for Denver.

"organicforecasting", which encompasses the Bering Sea Rule, East Asia Rule (Typhoon Rule), Southern Oscillation Index Delta, and the Recurring Rossby Wave Train are being researched for areas that expand the lower 48. It's not privy to troughs either as we've forecasted multiple heat waves that have developed. It's along the same premise as the NCAR Wave 5 research that was published back in 2013 if that helps you to understand the concept. If y'all have any questions, don't hesitate to tweet me @kopnfmradiowx or email kopnfmradiowxATgmail.com!

[Chinook]

A while back, I went to a 1-day conference hosted by Ed Berry and Klaus Weickmann at the NOAA Skaggs building in Boulder. I did it just for fun, and I had been following Ed Berry's blog at the time. This actually had nothing to do with my career at CSU Atmospheric science. (Ed Berry's blog cannot be found on the internet now?). I really like their research on the GWO and MJO forcing of the atmosphere. I just have a hard time tracking the GWO, for sure, since the ESRL-PSD discontinued the plots on the GWO phase. I also have a hard time adequately tracking the MJO, sort of because it is not just defined by one number. It's also not really something you talk about when talking about 1-2 day forecasts. Also, you have to be careful in applying the ideas of MJO phase vs. USA weather. I am not super good at remembering which MJO phase does what. The thing that I remember well is that the El Nino-like (global) atmosphere has a high atmospheric angular momentum, and the La Nina-like atmosphere has a low atmospheric angular momentum. That's because the El Nino-like patterns put more wind speed closer to the equator, which has a higher radius from the axis of the Earth. I think I remember Ed Berry saying that El Nino-like patterns put troughs over North America and Eurasia, ridges over the oceans. Vice versa with La Nina-like patterns.

Actually, I have a question. If the MJO phase was rotating (changing) regularly this winter, why did we have so many days with troughs near the West Coast, and not a lot of large changes in patterns?

[raindancewx]

5 hours ago, Chinook said:

A while back, I went to a 1-day conference hosted by Ed Berry and Klaus Weickmann at the NOAA Skaggs building in Boulder. I did it just for fun, and I had been following Ed Berry's blog at the time. This actually had nothing to do with my career at CSU Atmospheric science. (Ed Berry's blog cannot be found on the internet now?). I really like their research on the GWO and MJO forcing of the atmosphere. I just have a hard time tracking the GWO, for sure, since the ESRL-PSD discontinued the plots on the GWO phase. I also have a hard time adequately tracking the MJO, sort of because it is not just defined by one number. It's also not really something you talk about when talking about 1-2 day forecasts. Also, you have to be careful in applying the ideas of MJO phase vs. USA weather. I am not super good at remembering which MJO phase does what. The thing that I remember well is that the El Nino-like (global) atmosphere has a high atmospheric angular momentum, and the La Nina-like atmosphere has a low atmospheric angular momentum. That's because the El Nino-like patterns put more wind speed closer to the equator, which has a higher radius from the axis of the Earth. I think I remember Ed Berry saying that El Nino-like patterns put troughs over North America and Eurasia, ridges over the oceans. Vice versa with La Nina-like patterns.

Actually, I have a question. If the MJO phase was rotating (changing) regularly this winter, why did we have so many days with troughs near the West Coast, and not a lot of large changes in patterns?

To me, the pattern favored the West because the QBO didn't flip like it was supposed to, and also because - for good or for bad - the world weather pattern seems to have less variation near the solar minimum for temps/precip. We're pretty close to the minimum now, ~bottom 20% for solar based on 1749-2016. My hottest and coldest winters are all near the minimum - once the pattern locks in, only a new ENSO phase can change it essentially, and so you can get extremely long duration cold and warm anomalies, with the caveat that sun angle will push the jet stream north/south toward the winter and summer solstices. So we had essentially El Nino like precip patterns from the QBO and Nino 1.2 being warm, that were locked in by the sun, but we had La Nina temperature patterns because the MJO was moving a lot and the Central Tropical Pacific was still anomalously cooler than the remainder of the Tropical Pacific.

I had been expecting kind of weird winter for a while, there were a lot of unusual things going on last Summer in the SW, which hinted at winter weirdness. It was super dry early during the monsoon, so we set record some lows, not just record highs - I think Santa Fe got to the mid 40s and upper 90s in July 2016 - both amazing, and you had an unbelievable flip from July to August for both temps and precip. That's sort of what happened in Dec v. Jan - Dec was warm/dry, but Jan was incredibly wet and cooler, just like the July-Aug transition, which saw a record drop in temps for most of the West.

[ConiferMtnMan]

12z GFS brings the SuperSoaker to most of CO east of the divide. Hopefully it's correct. Would love to be measuring in feet of snow starting later this week at 8,400' in the foothills southwest of Denver.

[Chinook]

The 06z GFS has 5.0" of QPF for Denver in 384 hours, but the 00z GFS only has 3.6". Either way, Fort Collins hasn't gotten over 3.6" in a month since May 2015.

[mayjawintastawm]

Denver has taken since July 1st to get its last 3.6" of precip. That's 8 months and 20 days. About as dry as El Paso TX. I don't feel like looking back that far but I'm guessing the last time we got 3.6" in a month was probably September 2013.

[Redmorninglight]

Hello everyone. My wife, daughter and I will be coming your way this weekend to look at colleges and do some snowboarding. We tour Boulders campus Friday and CSU on Sat. As well as visit with my brother in Fort Collins. Hoping to hit up Loveland Sunday and Monday. Looks like our timing might be decent as the current warm and dry spell may break this week. Would greatly appreciate any insight about what to expect as far as weather and conditions. Thanks so much. 

[ValpoVike]

12 hours ago, Redmorninglight said:

Hello everyone. My wife, daughter and I will be coming your way this weekend to look at colleges and do some snowboarding. We tour Boulders campus Friday and CSU on Sat. As well as visit with my brother in Fort Collins. Hoping to hit up Loveland Sunday and Monday. Looks like our timing might be decent as the current warm and dry spell may break this week. Would greatly appreciate any insight about what to expect as far as weather and conditions. Thanks so much. 

We just did both of those tours a few weeks ago.  My daughter chose CSU

[mayjawintastawm]

Friday's looking wet and sloppy, possibly some heavy wet snow but mostly rain (of course a couple degrees can make a world of difference, especially in Boulder). Bring raingear to tour campuses. Also not as much upslope as sometimes, so less potential for a Boulder bomb. Should be done by Sat. Unlike many wintry scenarios there is not much cold air to follow, so roads should be fine. Loveland Sun/Mon should be great, though snow won't likely be powdery, there will be plenty of coverage. Only word to the wise sea-level dweller re Loveland is, it's plenty high (base is 10800' at the main area), so take it easy.

[Chinook]

I'd say it is very likely that it will rain in areas under 5500 ft in many of the upcoming storms. (Thankfully, we have more than one storm to talk about in the future.) For this week, We should expect a few tenths of an inch of rain for low elevations, maybe up to 1.1" of rain for the Denver Metro. The most recent NWS snow forecast shows 10" of snow for elevations of 10000 ft, and something like 8" for the Palmer Divide at 7000ft. The NWS will probably increase the snow forecast around 10000ft as we get closer to the storm.  I saw a NAM forecast sounding where there is some MUCAPE near here, so we could have a bit of thunder, even while surface temps are cool. A tiny bit of the NE corner of Colorado has a Day-2 slight risk for severe weather.

 

 

 

[mayjawintastawm]

Yeah, lots of variability run to run on the different models even getting pretty close in, in terms of QPF (anywhere from 0.5 to 1.3 or so) and snow (0 to several inches) for densely-inhabited areas between 5500 and 6500 feet. Wonder if it will come down to mesoscale/neighborhood scale features like we see in the Spring with these.

[Redmorninglight]

2 hours ago, mayjawintastawm said:

Friday's looking wet and sloppy, possibly some heavy wet snow but mostly rain (of course a couple degrees can make a world of difference, especially in Boulder). Bring raingear to tour campuses. Also not as much upslope as sometimes, so less potential for a Boulder bomb. Should be done by Sat. Unlike many wintry scenarios there is not much cold air to follow, so roads should be fine. Loveland Sun/Mon should be great, though snow won't likely be powdery, there will be plenty of coverage. Only word to the wise sea-level dweller re Loveland is, it's plenty high (base is 10800' at the main area), so take it easy.

Thanks for the tips.  Fresh snow of any kind is welcome.  Re altitude, yes i have heard Loveland is rough but at least we acclimate to 5500 feet a few days before the big hill.

[ValpoVike]

21 minutes ago, Redmorninglight said:

Thanks for the tips.  Fresh snow of any kind is welcome.  Re altitude, yes i have heard Loveland is rough but at least we acclimate to 5500 feet a few days before the big hill.

Ha, I thought you meant that you were going to the city of Loveland.  I thought to myself, hmmm why?   Have fun, and make sure that your daughter selects a Colorado school.  I see lot's of skiing in your future when you come out to visit!

It is looking like generally south of I70 will see the most QPF from this storm.

[ConiferMtnMan]

GFS and NAM seem to be trending rapidly drier for the Thursday/Friday storm. Winter Storm watch for 7-15" is looking pretty optimistic. Maybe next week's storms can perform.

[Chinook]

This is cool. Also this image may show some of the possible severe weather in east Texas on Friday.

[ConiferMtnMan]

Storm day and as I'm downtown right now it is 74. WWA in the metro for 3-6" tonight and Winter Storm Warning for the foothills for 6-12" tonight. I love Colorado spring weather.

[Chinook]

The Palmer Divide out to Limon has a Red Flag Warning and a Blizzard Warning. Blizzards on fire!

[Chinook]

we have some rain and snow developing, with 65mph downslope winds near Colorado Springs

[Chinook]

The snowstorm or blizzard is still going on the Palmer Divide, out to several miles east of Limon. Here in Fort Collins, it was almost a complete rainstorm-fail. Denver got about 0.7" of rain.

[Chinook]

My list of the largest snowstorms of Fort Collins. This list is probably not complete and I will have to improve it at some point.

http://www.greatlakes.salsite.com/Fort_Collins_Historical_Snowstorms.html

[raindancewx]

Some people on Twitter are reporting 1-2 feet of snow in the northern mountains of New Mexico. Sipapu got 21", Ski Santa Fe 11". Sandias have a bit of snow on them once again. The NAM had up to 18" in the San Juans and it looks like it did pretty well overall.

Questa, NM today.

 

 

[mayjawintastawm]

Really nice, especially considering the low seemed to ride the CO-NM border. More precip S and E than was thought initially.

We got about 2" of slush and probably around 0.8" of water, less than the 1-1.2" that was thought last night. 15 miles south and 500 feet higher got pummeled. Seems like 6000' was the magic number.

[raindancewx]

CPC has much of the West favored for wetness now through April 7th. I can't remember the last time I've seen "60%" highlighted over NM in an extended forecast. Maybe January? Albuquerque still hasn't had measurable rain or snow in March since March 18, 2015, (60+ days) but suspect that streak comes to an end by March 31st. GFS is just a bit snowy over the West through early April...

March 29 - Apr 2 is actually the second biggest five day period for heavy snow in ABQ after Dec 26-30, and we've had some pretty big snowstorms statewide in that period. Have to watch next week closely.

My experiments with solar impacts on precipitation, filtered by ENSO, imply the SW should actually be fairly wet in May and June, but April should be somewhat dry. We'll have to see though, that's based on the DJF ENSO state which may not work this year. It seems like when Nino 1.2 is warm but Nino 3.4 is neutral/cool, we get transitory El Nino effects interrupting the La Nina effects, which would be consistent with a wet Spring after the warm March.

[Chinook]

Keep up the hope. The Front Range cities and foothills are in D2 drought now. But if this happens, they won't be

[raindancewx]

Does anyone have the European snow totals for the next ten days? There is a system coming through March 29, and historically, quite a few of the all time greatest snow storms in NM, AZ & Southern CO. have happened March 29-April 2, so I'm a bit wary that the GFS may be underplaying it. Our big dates here are March 2-6, Dec 26-30, and Mar 29-Apr 2.

I used to have Weatherbell but don't have it now.

 

[Chinook]

I don't. I only had Eurowx.com for 3 months. I just canceled it. You might try Wunderground.com to look at the Euro, but you will have to look at QPF, 3 hrs at a time or 6 hrs at a time. If it works right. That's one of the reasons I did (and will) get Eurowx.com for the winter. Because it's just too interesting, and Wunderground.com was highly frustrating.

I think I will start a new Mountain West thread for summer (so to speak) on April 1st. Because this winter was a joke! If we have a winter storm warning here -after- I start the summer thread, I will laugh!

[ConiferMtnMan]

On 3/25/2017 at 8:13 PM, Chinook said:

I don't. I only had Eurowx.com for 3 months. I just canceled it. You might try Wunderground.com to look at the Euro, but you will have to look at QPF, 3 hrs at a time or 6 hrs at a time. If it works right. That's one of the reasons I did (and will) get Eurowx.com for the winter. Because it's just too interesting, and Wunderground.com was highly frustrating.

I think I will start a new Mountain West thread for summer (so to speak) on April 1st. Because this winter was a joke! If we have a winter storm warning here -after- I start the summer thread, I will laugh!

Looks like a chance for snow on the plains Friday night into Saturday, so you might just get your laugh. 

[Chinook]

We will postpone the summer thread for about 2 weeks or something as several storms will hit us. There seems to be some disagreement as to the snow levels. I don't know if I will get snow at all.

[raindancewx]

Suspect my 60+ day drought of no measurable rain or snow in March ends tomorrow. About bloody time. Last precip in Albuquerque in March was March 18, 2015.

Mountains should get smacked with snow the next 60 hours.