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Nino-Neutral-Nina?


Solak

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  • 5 months later...
  • 1 month later...

So based on latest modeling...looks like the idea of a strong La Nina is fading....and it should be more of a weak La Nina. I think this means we won't roast as bad/long based on some graphics I have been seeing for all of the South-East. Strong La Nina's look toasty.

55-60% chance of development from NOAA.

Statistical increase chance of tornadoes in NC according to the State Climate Office. So when we do roast, even if briefly ahead of a front, could be quiet stormy. Drier along coastal GA, SC, NC...wetter west of Atlanta, GA with tap of Gulf of Mexico rains. Normal elsewhere in temps/precip....however....could be extremes of both at times making it normal in their respective departments in the end. Just need a little timing for some snow as always. 

Don't forget as you have seen early on this hurricane season, threats will be closer to home than usual with La Nina. 

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On July 29, 2016 at 5:51 AM, NWNC2015 said:

So based on latest modeling...looks like the idea of a strong La Nina is fading....and it should be more of a weak La Nina. I think this means we won't roast as bad/long based on some graphics I have been seeing for all of the South-East. Strong La Nina's look toasty.

55-60% chance of development from NOAA.

Statistical increase chance of tornadoes in NC according to the State Climate Office. So when we do roast, even if briefly ahead of a front, could be quiet stormy. Drier along coastal GA, SC, NC...wetter west of Atlanta, GA with tap of Gulf of Mexico rains. Normal elsewhere in temps/precip....however....could be extremes of both at times making it normal in their respective departments in the end. Just need a little timing for some snow as always. 

Don't forget as you have seen early on this hurricane season, threats will be closer to home than usual with La Nina. 

This information was provided to you at no cost.

 

 

Looking at euro's nino plumes, it busted to low from May and it's been correcting past couple of months.  If it's correct we could be looking at neutral/neg enso.

 

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  • 2 months later...

La Niña watch dropped

 

The chances of La Niña this fall were 75% in June, but they fell to around 55-60% in July, and again in August to 40%. Sea surface temperatures were cooling, but the pace of cooling has slowed. ENSO conditions are likely to remain neutral through fall. Forecasters have dropped the La Niña watch. The next update will be October 13.

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