Mallow Posted November 14, 2010 Share Posted November 14, 2010 Hi, all! Time for another forecasting contest. This one will be for the Atlantic Tropical Season. Here are the rules... - A forecast will be made for each month, and must be submitted by 23:59 UTC on the last day of the previous month. - The forecast will include the number of expected tropical storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes for the following month. - A major hurricane in a given month counts as one of each... a tropical storm, a hurricane, and a major hurricane. - A hurricane in a given month counts as one hurricane and one tropical storm. - The month in which a storm is counted is the month in which it was named by the NHC, going by UTC. - Scores are counted as follows: 7*(1 - (|forecast - actual|/(1 + average))), or 0, whichever is higher. - All forecasts are rounded to the nearest tenth, and all scores calculated in the above manner are rounded to the nearest tenth after calculation. - If the NHC has named it, it counts... doesn't matter if it's tropical or subtropical. However, if it only reaches hurricane strength as an extratropical storm (the NHC is no longer issuing advisories for it), it only counts as a tropical storm. Averages are listed in the table below, and were estimated from this graphic. Month Storms Canes Major Jun 0.9 0.4 0.0 Jul 1.1 0.6 0.2 Aug 2.7 1.7 1.1 Sep 3.7 2.3 1.1 Oct 1.8 1.0 0.3 Nov 0.4 0.2 0.1 Dec 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total 10.7 6.2 2.8 For example... Say you're forecasting for August. You forecast 4.2 storms, 3.1 'canes, and 2.0 majors (yes, you can forecast tenths). It verifies as 6 storms, 3 canes, and 1 major. You would get points as follows... 7*(1 - (|4.2 - 6|/(1 + 2.7))) = 7*(1 - (1.8/3.7)) = 3.6 for storms 7*(1 - (|3.1 - 3|/(1 + 1.7))) = 7*(1 - (0.1/2.7)) = 6.7 for 'canes 7*(1 - (|2.0 - 1|/(1 + 1.1))) = 7*(1 - (1.0/2.1)) = 3.7 for majors Your total for August would then be 3.6 + 6.7 + 3.7 = 14.0, out of a possible 21 points. BONUS POINTS A bonus of up to 9 points is possible for each month. When making your monthly forecast, you should also give your forecast for the total number of storms, 'canes, and majors for the entire year (through the end of December). Points will be calculated as follows... 3*(1 - (2*|forecast - actual|/(number of months remaining))), or 0, whichever is higher. For example, if in August you forecasted 15.0 storms, 10.0 'canes, and 3.5 majors, and it verifies as 16 storms, 8 'canes, and 4 majors, you'd get... 3*(1 - (2*|15.0 - 16|/5)) = 3*(1 - (2*1.0/5)) = 1.8 3*(1 - (2*|10.0 - 8|/5)) = 3*(1 - (2*2.0/5)) = 0.6 3*(1 - (2*|3.5 - 4|/5)) = 3*(1 - (2*0.5/5)) = 2.4 Your bonus points for August would then be 1.8 + 0.6 + 2.4 = 4.8, out of a possible 9 points If you made the same forecast in November, you'd get... 3*(1 - (2*|15.0 - 16|/2)) = 3*(1 - (2*1.0/2)) = 0.0 3*(1 - (2*|10.0 - 8|/2)) = 3*(1 - (2*2.0/2)) = -3.0 3*(1 - (2*|3.5 - 4|/2)) = 3*(1 - (2*0.5/2)) = 1.5 Your bonus points for November would then be 0.0 + 0.0 + 1.5 = 1.5, out of a possible 9 points The ranking is by points, and is not dependent on how many months you enter (a person who scores 25 points in one month and doesn't play any others still beats a person who scores 24 points and has played all 7 months). The total number of points possible is 210 (7 months * 30 points per month). An "average" and "consensus" forecast will be scored for reference, but not included in the main rankings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted November 14, 2010 Author Share Posted November 14, 2010 Results through October: November forecasts: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 So far for Nov........0/0/0, and nothing looking that ominous. It'll be interesting to see how many stick a few fractions out there for Dec.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 Hey Mallow....are you doing a Dec. Trop. contest? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted November 30, 2010 Author Share Posted November 30, 2010 Hey Mallow....are you doing a Dec. Trop. contest? Probably not. The winner at the end of November will likely be the winner overall! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted December 28, 2010 Share Posted December 28, 2010 Mallow.....you gonna finish this up? It was a great contest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted December 28, 2010 Author Share Posted December 28, 2010 Mallow.....you gonna finish this up? It was a great contest. Ya, I'll try to get the wrap-up done here over the next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted December 28, 2010 Share Posted December 28, 2010 november sucked hardcore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted December 28, 2010 Share Posted December 28, 2010 november sucked hardcore Yeah, but I nailed it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted January 3, 2011 Author Share Posted January 3, 2011 Final results: Congratulations to Roger Smith! And a huge thank you to all who participated! It was fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Final results: Congratulations to Roger Smith! And a huge thank you to all who participated! It was fun. Thanks Mallow, it was really fun! I'll take my seasonal . Hope this becomes a tradition. I liked the format, maybe a tweak here and there, but all in all it was an awesome contest. Oh and Congrats Roger Smith and saw0023, you blew away the competition in both monthly and seasonal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Thanks for the contest Mallow, I'm sure it was an unexpected amount of extra effort on your part to retrieve all the material from the Eastern forum, and sadly we have lost a few dedicated hurricane enthusiasts in the process, hopefully not forever. As to the results, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.