Bastardi: Warm Atlantic + Cold Pacific Leads to NE Tropical Cyclone Landfalls

[boulderrr]

Is there scientific evidence to Joe Bastardi's recent claim that the Northeast is at higher risk of tropical cyclone landfalls due to the fact that the Pacific is relatively cold compared to the Atlantic?

I've been saying for years that we were returning to the cycle of the 1950s, that the Pacific, which by the way is at record-breaking cold levels -- how about them apples? -- the Pacific is cooling, the Atlantic is warming, the Atlantic warm cycle lasts another 10 to 15 years.

What aggravates me about these people is Dr. Bill Grey of Colorado State made this prediction in the late '70s, that we were going into this very cycle, people laughed at him, here it comes. The Atlantic is warm, the Pacific is cold, the action shifts to the East Coast of the United States like it did in the 1950s for 10 to 15 years, and then we cool the Atlantic and we go back the other way.

http://newsbusters.o...nt-statement-hu

[Huffwx]

I doubt there is ANY research. You can quote some storms but even landfalling events don't really show the big picture.

[SnowGoose69]

Is there scientific evidence to Joe Bastardi's recent claim that the Northeast is at higher risk of tropical cyclone landfalls due to the fact that the Pacific is relatively cold compared to the Atlantic?

http://newsbusters.o...nt-statement-hu

We are more into a La Nina dominant ERA now much as were in the 1940s-early 1960s when we saw alot of landfalling canes near the NE or close calls. Its anyone's guess as to whether or not its just the Atlantic that factors into that or the Pacific helps too but we know for sure La Nina's make it easier for hurricanes to get going in the Atlantic vs. El Ninos. It was remarkable how the NE managed to escape from 1995-2010 without one big hit considering how active the basin was. I think we have maybe 8-10 years left in this active phase before we likely see another Saharan drought start up and another downward period...I would not be surprised if we get another 2-3 hits somewhere across SNE or LI in that period.

[Ground Scouring]

I think there are other factors besides the AMO, ENSO, PDO, etc. that determine where landfalls cluster. Based upon history, major-hurricane landfalls tended to cluster within short intervals.

1900s: FL peninsula + W Gulf

1910s: FL peninsula + W Gulf

1920s: FL peninsula

1930s: Carolinas + W Gulf

1940s: East Coast + FL peninsula

1950s: Carolinas + New England

1960s: Gulf

1970s: Gulf

1980s: Carolinas + Gulf

1990s: Carolinas + W Gulf

2000s: FL peninsula + Gulf

Now, some studies suggest atmospheric warming *may* amplify wavelengths and allow more Sandy-type threats...but who knows?

[HurricaneJosh]

He'll say anything for clicks and traffic-- anything. He has zero credibility.

[Ed Lizard]

He'll say anything for clicks and traffic-- anything. He has zero credibility.

Intuitively, a warm AMO, which correlates w/ more cyclones, just because it has more cyclones, would feature a greater chance of a US landfall in any given year, but other than that....

[Riptide]

Considering this, wouldn't that imply NE Tropical Cyclone landfalls every year? I don't understand the logic here...unless he is talking about the ENSO region. The pacific is quite cold in the mid-laditudes and will always be cooler than the Atlantic.

[Ed Lizard]

Considering this, wouldn't that imply NE Tropical Cyclone landfalls every year? I don't understand the logic here...unless he is talking about the ENSO region. The pacific is quite cold in the mid-laditudes and will always be cooler than the Atlantic.

IIRC, concerning the PDO and the AMO (and some of this may actually be regurgitated Bastardi material from my AccuWx days, ie, not rigorous) when the PDO is cold and the AMO is warm, warm ENSO phases tend to be weaker and less frequent, so a cold PDO, as it relates to likely fewer/weaker warm ENSO events, would also be a positive for total storm number in the Atlantic. I was just thinking intuitively more storms means anyplace is more likely to see a landfall.

The 'Perfect Storm', similar to Sandy but somewhat weaker, and starting farther East so never making landfall, happened before the latest more active hurricane phase, so if Bastardi is going that way, not sure I follow.

I follow him on Twitter, but harder to go into detail in 144 characters.