Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 4

[wxmx]

Need the rain badly...not because of the drought, but because of 100F+ temps.108F at MMAN right now. . Tomorrow more of the same, but it will be the last day, at least for a few days.

[Srain]

Morning e-mail from Jeff:

A risk of severe thunderstorms across the entire region today and tonight.

Already an active morning just to our north with a line of severe thunderstorms from Waco to just north of Centerville moving SE at 30mph. This line has actually been increasing in intensity over the past few hours and may hold together long enough to make it into at least the northern ½ of SE TX. Damaging winds to 60mph will be the main threat with this line.

Will be interesting to see how this complex may affect late day expected development, given the current radar trends a well defined outflow boundary will likely overspread much of the region later this morning from this complex and it is at least possible that with modest early morning heating that this system could move to the coast. Feel even if this is the case, clouds will quickly clear and strong heating will rapidly recover the air mass back to an unstable state by mid to late afternoon. Add in a southward moving frontal boundary during peak heating and expect additional strong to severe development from the Austin to College Station to Livingston area this afternoon which will then move south across the area into the evening hours. A forecasted very unstable air mass will support severe thunderstorms with the main threats being large damaging hail and strong damaging winds to 60mph. Feel most if not all areas are at risk today/tonight as capping in the mid levels looks to be overcome, although areas around Matagorda Bay may see the least activity. At least many areas should see one/maybe two rounds of storms with wetting rainfall to help ease our current dry spell.

Front should push on offshore early Friday with pleasant early June weather of lows in the 60’s and highs near 90 through the weekend. Models continue to show a more classic summer pattern of seabreeze storms each afternoon next week as the high pressure aloft remains fairly modest over the region.

[DoctorMu]

Bring it!

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=GRK&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX

1021 AM CDT THU MAY 31 2012

.UPDATE...

RAGGED LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS HEADING MORE EAST THAN SOUTH

ACROSS THE EAST-CENTRAL CWA. THIS LINE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ITS

MORE EASTWARD TREK OUT OF THE CWA. THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE UPSTREAM

LINE OF CONVECTION (ALONG A STEPHENVILLE TO WACO TO CENTERVILLE

LINE) WILL LIKELY CLIP/AFFECT OUR MORE NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL FA

OVER THE NEXT 3-6 HOURS. THE HIGHEST POP IS TARGETED OVER THESE

AREAS...OR OVER COUNTIES THAT HAVEN`T BEEN WORKED OVER FROM THIS

MORNING`S ACTIVITY. IN SHORT...THE DOWNSTREAM ENVIRONMENT IS STILL

VERY CONDUCIVE FOR THE FORMATION OF MID TO LATE SCATTERED SHOWERS

AND THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY REACHING SEVERE LIMITS. THE UPPER

LEVELS WILL BECOME LESS DIFFULENT THROUGH THE DAY...BUT THE VICINITY

OF THE LF QUAD OF A SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS JET STREAK AND A MID-LEVEL

TROUGH MAY BE ALL OF THE UPPER SUPPORT NEEDED FOR CONTINUED LATTER

DAY CONVECTION. THE MAIN COLD FRONT (CURRENTLY JUST SOUTH OF THE RED

RIVER VALLEY) IS FORECAST TO SAG SLOWLY DOWN NEAR THE COAST BY

MIDNIGHT AND BECOME NEAR-STATIONARY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. HIGHER

POPS WILL BE FOCUSED ABOUT THIS FEATURE AND WHERE HIGHER MOISTURE IS

FORECAST TO POOL...OR ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR (SE

FORECAST AREA) DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. 31

[Srain]

The 12Z GFS has come into better agreement with what the Euro has been suggesting regarding a nice surge of deep tropical moisture a daily sea breeze storms firing off daily beginning next Tuesday. The good thing is it is becoming rather clear that we will not see a return of the same pattern we saw last summer with endless days of excessive heat and not a drop of rain in sight.

[Srain]

A lot of weak rotation with storms S and W of the Houston Metro this afternoon.

[Ed Lizard]

Rain magically missed my yard completely today.

[DoctorMu]

A lot of weak rotation with storms S and W of the Houston Metro this afternoon.

That was one wild hop-scotching outflow boundary. I thought we would get nailed with an inch or two of rain in CLL, but much of the energy jumped over us. We'll take what we can get It's a very pleasant evening with a dry WNW breeze.

There were a few cells threatening to dump some wet stuff down near Monterrey

[wxmx]

That was one wild hop-scotching outflow boundary. I thought we would get nailed with an inch or two of rain in CLL, but much of the energy jumped over us. We'll take what we can get It's a very pleasant evening with a dry WNW breeze.

There were a few cells threatening to dump some wet stuff down near Monterrey

Yeah but missed mostly....one just to our north right now...looks like decent hail with it too (70dBz)

[Srain]

Guidance continues to advertise a bit more active pattern across Texas next week. There will be a surge of deeper tropical moisture involved with this disturbance and that will be a change from the pattern we have seen of late. While there do remain some differences, the Euro is rather insistent that a warm core upper low will meander for a couple of days across the Lone Star State setting the stage for some nice qpf across the region. We will see.

[DoctorMu]

Yeah but missed mostly....one just to our north right now...looks like decent hail with it too (70dBz)

storms abounding from the S today there. Had to be some rain nearby or in the neighborhood. ...generally heading towards Texas. Our dew point skyrocketed in the wee hours from the mid 50s to 72° with return flow. Seabreeze and a disturbance sound like a welcome June pattern next week.

[wxmx]

storms abounding from the S today there. Had to be some rain nearby or in the neighborhood. ...generally heading towards Texas. Our dew point skyrocketed in the wee hours from the mid 50s to 72° with return flow. Seabreeze and a disturbance sound like a welcome June pattern next week.

Yep, there's a low and an associated surface trough to our west. Thunder and some rain an hour ago (it looks like the southern/eastern part of the city got it plenty). Looks like round 2 coming in a few minutes.

[Srain]

A very complex and complicated forecast ahead for the upcoming work week. Guidance is struggling with an Omega block in the Ohio Valley and several upper lows, one riding NE from Mexico and another riding S (warm core) in the northerly flow around the East Coast trough. Add to the mix a back door stalling boundary and a surge of deep tropical moisture from the W Caribbean/W Gulf and a meandering stagnant upper air pattern with a trough developing across the W and Texas stuck in between, one gets the ingredients coming together for increasing rainfall chances throughout the coming week for the Lone Star State. Sea breeze showers/storms are another feature to monitor as well. This unsettled pattern looks to be rather slow to move E as we head toward next weekend.

[Srain]

The overnight guidance continues to advertise an unsettled pattern being Tuesday and continuing until the upcoming weekend.

The Euro/GFS are suggesting a meandering upper low across Texas with a stalled frontal boundary and little to no mid/upper flow pattern to move the disturbance or front for much of the next 7 days. Texas will be trapped between a blocking pattern to our E with a developing trough across the W with little to no winds, Add to the mix a surge of deep tropical moisture with pw's in the 1.7 - 2.0 range which is well above normal and the boundary draped across the region for 4-7 days acting as a focal point for daily showers/storms.

With little in the way of movement and daytime sea breeze activity firing off showers/storms, the threat of heavy rainfall could become an issue should the pattern linger. Daily rainfall totals could approach 1/2 - 3/4 of an inch or higher in stronger storms. There still remains some concern that a very slow moving surface low could form along Coastal Texas adding to the available moisture and instability later this week.

HPC QPF Disco snip:

THE TAIL END OF THE VORTICITY NEAR NERN OK SHOULD

GRADUALLY SINK THROUGHOUT THE DAY INTO NRN TX/SRN OK AND BEGIN TO

TEAM-UP WITH THE UPPER DYNAMICS NEAR WEST TX FOR POSSIBLE AXIS OF

HEAVIER CONVECTIVE RAINFALL BUT NONE OF THE MODELS HAVE MUCH OF

CLUE HERE EITHER. HPC GENERALLY FOLLOWED THE ECMWF HERE BUT QPF

AMOUNTS COULD VERY WELL BE ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE DUE TO THE

VERY LIGHT 850MB WINDS/STEERING CURRENT.

[Srain]

Morning e-mail from Jeff:

Dry period of late looks to be ended this week as a pattern change aloft takes place.

Upper level high pressure which has been anchored over the region for several weeks will break down starting late today while a plume of deep tropical moisture currently located over the western Caribbean Sea and SE Gulf of Mexico moves northwest and inland along the TX coast tonight/Tuesday. An upper level low currently located in NE MX will move NNE into central TX on Tuesday as the ridging aloft breaks down into a mid level height field weakness over TX. The weakening ridge aloft combined with the transport of a tropical air mass into the region would in itself support a decent chance of rainfall along the seabreeze each afternoon…and this should begin on Tuesday.

Tropical air mass becomes entangled into the upper level low which will be located over NC TX by Wednesday and this feature appears to gradually become somewhat warm core “tropical” given the abundance of tropical moisture in a weak upper level wind field. With PWS climbing to near 2 standard deviations above normal across central and northern TX and near the 99th percentile across SE TX (PWS of 1.75-2.0 inches by late week) concern is grown that this feature will begin to affect much like a warm core tropical system with excessive rainfall focused near the center during the overnight hours. Extremely weak wind fields will make for slow storm motions and with a tropical air column overhead, expect some really hefty rainfall totals for the end of the week. For now with the main upper/mid level system remaining west of our region, suspect any of the really big flooding rainfall may be just W/NW of our region, but SE TX will lie in the favorable inflow region off the Gulf. This system is looking similar to the warm core lows of the summer of 2007 which produced devastating flooding rainfall across portions of NC TX. Will take a closer look on Tuesday and start to determine possible rainfall amounts for the middle to end of the week.

Wet pattern looks to linger on into the weekend and even into next week with the weakness in the sub-tropical ridge remaining over the area. This will allow daily chances for thunderstorms along the seabreeze front.

[Ed Lizard]

New NAM continues wet for Texas, but not super wet. No "hot" colors on PSU regional total rainfall onshore.

Shows ~1.9 inch at 48 and 60 hours, some CAPE, but weak winds, below 20 knots, the entire column (through 250 mb). Some of the AFDs have mentioned weak low/mid level flow means slow moving storms, but not a lot of high moisture air replenishing the storms, which leads to scattered storms that would pop up and then die. A seabreeze boundary progressing inward might help/

Also mentioned earlier AFDs, if something can focus storms for a while that lasts, over land warm core processes could develop where a thunderstorm complex becomes self sustaining,

Still not convinced any heavy rain issues will develop, although a storm tapping 1.9" PW would be capable of heavy rain while it lasts.

Lack of significant shear and high PW does give me some hope of weak tropical funnels. But I think outside of a few hotspots, most of Texas will see 3/4 to 2 inches, with the coast and perhaps North Central Texas into the Western Hill Country favored for the highest rain over the next 3-5 days. See also latest HPC 5 day rainfall totals. I'll be ok with 5 day totals around an inch at my house.

[Srain]

This morning there are active storms over N Central TX from the MCS that slowly moved E from the Lubbock Area last night. Left over boundaries should be the focal point for showers/storms today and better chances may extend into Central Texas this afternoon as well as the Dallas/Ft Worth Metroplex.

Streamer showers are developing along the Middle TX Coast on down to Corpus as deep tropical moisture heads inland. A slow meander upper trough/low will be the trigger for heavy rainfall the next several days. A weak frontal boundary will slowly sag SW from NE TX on Thursday and linger across the area from most of the weekend. My hunch is daily scattered showers/storms will fire with 1/2 to 3/4 inch amounts and isolated 1-2 inch amounts (mainly N & W) with stronger storms. I believe there is some potential for 3-4 inch amounts locally for the period, but it will all depend on meso features that can not be determined with much confidence and model guidance making for a complex and complicated forecast.

One year ago we saw high temps of 105F and a severe drought and on this date in 2001, Tropical Storm Allison made landfall dropping 8+ inches of rain at IAH. We will not see a repeat of either of those records today.

[Ed Lizard]

^HGX disco and climo loaded w/ goodies.^

Hoping at least one slow moving storm visits the yard the next few days. As dry as its been, don't think an inch or two will cause any big deals, although driving through one of the heavier shows will probably not be fun.

HWO does not mention the tropical funnels I'm half hoping/expecting to see. Just isolated 2 to 3 inch rains, and lightning. Glass quarter full with 1.8 to 1.9" PW, about 1000 J/Kg of long and skinny CAPE, and weak winds ( nothing above 15 to 20 knots below 250 mb, nothing above 10 knots below about 700 mb)) I can see a tropical funnel happening, especially with afternoon seabreeze enhanced activity.

Probably been 7 years since I've seen one.

This tropical funnel near Edroy, TX actually touched down briefly, producing EF-0 damage in 2003.

[Srain]

Morning e-mail from Jeff:

A slow moving upper level low will combine with deep tropical moisture to produce an extended period of wet weather across much of the state.

Water vapor shows an upper level low over S TX and another upper level low starting to form over NW TX (the old remains of an meso scale vorticity center from an overnight thunderstorm complex over the TX panhandle). While over the Gulf of Mexico deep tropical moisture is advancing NW off the Yucatan toward the TX coast this morning. GOES sounder shows a large area of PW values of 1.8-2.2 inches across much of the central and western Gulf of Mexico moving toward the coast and this is confirmed by the increase in scattered showers/thunderstorms off the coast this morning. This moisture will make its way inland today and continue to increase with PW values reaching 1.9-2.2 inches by Thursday into the weekend. Additionally, a weak frontal boundary will approach the area from the north/northeast Wednesday and stall across our northeastern counties helping to add another ingredient for rainfall. The NW TX upper level system will combine with the southern TX upper low and form a broad upper level low/trough over the state which becomes trapped on the southern side of a large central US ridge in a blocking pattern. The result will be little motion or a slow drift of the upper level system.

With tropical moisture becoming increasingly entrained into the upper level system there is the possibility that the system will take on warm core features the most important the ability of the system to focus deep convection near its center in the overnight hours…similar to a tropical cyclone as it moves inland. Such systems in the past have produced incredible amounts of rainfall (usually in a small isolated area near or just east of the center). We will need to keep a close eye on this over the next 2-4 days as the upper level system meanders over central TX and then begins a slow eastward drift across SE TX this weekend.

Combination of all the above mentioned factors will lead to high rain chances starting Wednesday and continuing into early next week. Once temperatures achieve the mid to upper 80’s by late morning expect thunderstorms to begin to develop in our very moist air mass. Very weak wind fields will promote slow storm motions of less than 10mph pointing strongly toward a heavy rainfall threat…especially later in the week when the deeper tropical moisture arrives. With grounds dry from the past few weeks and the expected scattered nature of the rainfall at least through Thursday…do not think flooding will be a concern for the next 48 hours. From Friday onward as grounds saturate more run-off will be generated with additional rainfall and flooding could become a concern. We should have a good idea by Thursday if this system will behave somewhat like a tropical system and if that is the case rainfall amounts will need to be raised significantly.

For now will go with widespread 2-4 inches of rainfall through the weekend across the region, and would not be surprised if a few location pick up more than that.

Note: Today, last year, Houston reached 105 degrees a record for that date and the entire month of June…the start of our incredible summer heat wave. The City would go on to record 46 days at or above 100 shattering the old record of 32 in 1980. Additionally we were in severe drought conditions: For example last year Hobby Airport had only recorded 5.4 inches of rainfall compared to 26.29 inches this year.

[Srain]

HPC is suggesting a transition to a warm core low is possible...

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD

553 AM EDT TUE JUN 05 2012

FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION

VALID JUN 05/1200 UTC THRU JUN 08/1200 UTC

REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR

DAY 1...

06Z UPDATE... NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS ISSUANCE BASED

ON THE 00Z EC... 03Z SREF MEAN AND 06Z NAM.

...SOUTHEAST/GULF COAST STATES...

THE COMBINATION OF A WELL DEFINED MID-LEVEL VORT NEAR CENTRAL MS

EARLY THIS MORNING AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE TN VLY INTO THE

SRN APPALACHIANS SHOULD IGNITE ANOTHER ROUND OF POSSIBLE ORGANIZED

HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THE SOUTHEAST COAST WESTWARD TO THE

ERN/CENTRAL GULF COAST. THE VORT MAX SHOULD SLIDE DOWNSTREAM TODAY

FROM CENTRAL MS TO THE PANHANDLE OF FL OR NRN FL... WHILE THE

AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NERN QUAD OF THE COUNTRY HELPS

LOWER HEIGHTS AND STEER THE COLD FRONT SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE

SOUTHEAST/SOUTH. THE MODEL GUIDANCE APPEARS TO HAVE A DECENT

HANDLING OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY PROGRESSION BUT IS NOT HANDLING

THE SMALL SCALE MCS VERY WELL THIS MORNING. NEEDLESS TO SAY...

ENOUGH LIFT AND INSTABILITY AHEAD OF BOTH FEATURES WITH AOA 1.75

INCH PWS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR POSSIBLE HEAVY RAINFALL FROM

SERN LA TO COASTAL GA/SC. HPC GENERALLY FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE

OPERATIONAL ECMWF WITH THE SREF MEAN AND INTERNAL PSEUDO BIAS

CORRECTED GUIDANCE FOR POSSIBLE 1 TO 3 INCH AMOUNTS.

...TX...

A SHEAR AXIS PRESENT ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE/WEST TX WITH AOA 1.5

INCH PWS IS FUELING ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE HEAVY RAINFALL AND THIS

MID-LEVEL FEATURE APPEARS TO EITHER BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED OVER

THE NEXT 24 HRS OR THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS SLOW IN CAPTURING THE

FEATURE BASICALLY TRAPPED UNDER THE PLAINS RIDGE. THUS THE

MID-LEVEL VORT/LOW SHOULD NOT MOVE MUCH OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS... AS

850MB WINDS ARE GENERALLY 5-10 KTS OR LESS. HPC GENERALLY FOLLOWED

A COMBO OF THE ECMWF AND GFS WITH THIS SMALL SCALE FEATURE AND

TRENDED MORE CLOSELY TOWARD THE GFS ON HEAVIER QPF AMOUNTS...

DESPITE THE GFS DEPICTING POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK BULLS-EYE.

HPC GENERALLY WENT WITH A SIMILAR AXIS FROM SERN CO/TX PANHANDLE

SEWRD INTO CENTRAL TX FOR ANOTHER DIURNAL SURGE OF INSTABILITY

WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTN PERSISTING

INTO THE OVERNIGHT HRS... WITH 1 TO 3 INCH AMOUNTS.

...NW/NRN ROCKIES...

A DEEP AND ANOMALOUS UPR TROUGH WILL SWEEP UP THROUGH THE NWRN

QUAD OF THE COUNTRY ON TUES... WHILE GOING NEG TILT. A SHORT WAVE

IMPULSE IS ALREADY LIFTING THROUGH THE INTERIOR NW EARLY THIS

MORNING... WITH ANOTHER POTENT JET STREAK ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE

UPPER TROUGH LIFTING FROM NRN CA TO WRN MT. THIS SHOULD EXIT THE

INITIAL HEAVY RAIN/PRECIP SHIELD OUT OF THE INTERIOR NW/NRN

ROCKIES INTO WRN CANADA BEFORE ANOTHER PRECIP MAX TAKES FORM ON

THE BACKSIDE OF A PROGGED SURFACE LOW AND NEAR AN INVERTED SURFACE

TROUGH OVER NWRN MT. THE RESULTANT SHOULD BE ORGANIZED MDT TO HVY

RAINFALL FROM CENTRAL ID/WRN MT NORTH INTO CANADA... AS MOIST

SERLY FLOW CONTINUES. HPC GENERALLY FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE

OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF FOR QPF AMOUNTS.

DAYS 2 AND 3...

...SOUTHEAST U.S./FLORIDA...

ONE AREA TO WATCH FOR POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAIN IN THE DY2-3

PERIOD...IS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND PERHAPS FAR SOUTHERN GEORGIA. A

PLUME OF HIGH-PW AIR WILL WORK ITS WAY UP FROM THE CENTRAL

GULF...AND BECOME CAUGHT IN THE WESTERLIES. THIS AIR MASS SHOULD

PROMOTE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. BROAD SCALE

ORGANIZATION...HOWEVER...IS MORE QUESTIONABLE. THOUGH THERE WILL

BE BROAD LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...THE BULK OF THE MID AND UPPER

LEVEL FORCING - ASSOCIATED WITH A RESIDENT LONGWAVE TROUGH AND

ENTRANCE REGION OF AN ASSOCIATED JET STREAK - WILL REMAIN NEAR AND

JUST EAST OF THE COASTLINE. MEANWHILE...DEEP CONVECTION WITHIN THE

HIGH-PW PLUME OVER THE GULF...MAY TEND TO PROPAGATE SOUTH AND

WESTWARD INTO THE MOISTURE AXIS...PLACING A SECOND PRECIP MAXIMUM

OFF THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA. ACTIVITY OVER

LAND...THEREFORE...MAY BE LARGELY DRIVEN BY DIURNAL EFFECTS.

THUS...WHILE THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR VERY HEAVY LOCAL

DOWNPOURS...THERE IS NOT YET ENOUGH OF A LARGE SCALE SIGNAL TO

DRAW AN EXCESSIVE RAIN THREAT.

...TEXAS...

TEXAS WILL BE A SECOND AREA OF STRONG INTEREST. HERE A MID LEVEL

TROUGH WAS PINCHING OFF FROM THE FLOW...AND BECOMING TRAPPED

BENEATH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES.

DIURNAL BUILD UP AND RELEASE OF INSTABILITY/LATENT HEATING...SUCH

AS WAS TAKING PLACE THIS MORNING IN WEST TEXAS...WILL SUSTAIN THE

MID LEVEL LOW THROUGH DAY 3. FLORIDA STATE PHASE SPACE PLOTS SHOW

SOME TENDENCY FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP A WARM CORE WITH

TIME...WHICH AT A QUICK GLANCE...DOES SHOW UP IN THE GFS...WITH

WARMING AT 700-500 MB. THE 00Z ECMWF IS GOOD ON THE LARGE

SCALE...BUT IS PERHAPS OVER-FORECASTING THE WARM CORE CHARACTER OF

THIS SYSTEM...AS THAT MODEL KEEPS A CONCENTRATED AREA OF HEAVY

RAIN TIED DIRECTLY TO THE MID LEVEL LOW THROUGH THE FULL 24 HOURS

OF THE DAY 3 PERIOD. THIS RESULTS IN WHAT IS PROBABLY AN

UNREALISTIC 9-INCH PLUS QPF TOTAL OVER NORTH TEXAS. SINCE THE

LOCATION AND ORIGIN OF THIS FEATURE FAVORS AT LEAST MODEST COLD

POOL GENERATION...WE PREFERRED SOLUTIONS SUCH AS THE NAM AND 00Z

GFS...WHICH PROGRESS THEIR QPF SIGNAL SLOWLY SOUTH AND EAST WITH

TIME.

[Ed Lizard]

Dewpoint has been 77 to 78ºF all morning at GLS. I love that.

[wxmx]

Dewpoint has been 77 to 78ºF all morning at GLS. I love that.

Yeah, just add temps of 95F and you would love it even more.

[Ed Lizard]

Besides cool feature in Panhandle, one can see the outflow boundary HGX just mentioned as a possible trigger for storms once we reach the lower 90s.

[Srain]

The 12Z GFS continues to advertise a transition to a warm cored mid level low over Central Texas. That model also suggests that showers/storms will be on the increase beginning tomorrow across the region. I would not be surprised to see Flash Flood Watches hoisted for parts of Texas later today or tomorrow.

[Ed Lizard]

Yeah, just add temps of 95F and you would love it even more.

Can't quite tell from Texas radars- is it raining in Monterrey?

[DoctorMu]

model bullseyes on N. Texas. I'll take an 1"+ on the fringe though!

on the GGEM solution

[DoctorMu]

Besides cool feature in Panhandle, one can see the outflow boundary HGX just mentioned as a possible trigger for storms once we reach the lower 90s.

gaining steam on the conus wv...

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GSSLOOPS/ecwv.html

[wxmx]

Can't quite tell from Texas radars- is it raining in Monterrey?

Nope, slow moving storm to my NE...but it's moving SE. Radar estimates already have places over 10"...looks like precip rates may be close to 4"/hr in the strongest band

[Srain]

Interesting update from the HPC Diagnostic Discussion. Basically they are tossing the Euro and NAM solutions for now...as expected, this a low confidence forecast...

...UPPER LOW ORIGINATING OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...

PREFERENCE: GFS/UKMET

CONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGE

NAM MOVES TO THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...DROPPING

MORE ENERGY AND THE PRIMARY 500 MB CENTER TO THE LOWER RIO GRANDE

VALLEY/NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO MORE QUICKLY THAN THE GFS/ECMWF

WHICH MAINTAIN A LOW CENTER CLOSER TO THE RED RIVER INTO FRIDAY

BEFORE THE GFS SINKS TO THE SOUTH AS WELL...LEAVING THE ECMWF A

MORE NORTHERLY OUTLIER. WHILE THE NAM IS A STRONGER OUTLIER...THE

ECMWF IS A WEAK OUTLIER WITH THE UPPER HIGH BUILDING OVER THE

SOUTHWESTERN U.S./NORTHWESTERN MEXICO WHICH SHOULD HELP PULL THIS

FEATURE TO THE SOUTH LATER IN THE PERIOD. THE ECMWF ALSO SHOWS

EVIDENCE OF GRIDSCALE FEEDBACK WHICH MAY BE FURTHER ENFORCING ITS

MORE NORTHERLY POSITION.

[Srain]

Morning e-mail from Jeff:

Wetter pattern will begin to transpire today across the area.

Well defined upper level low over NW TX is sparking widespread thunderstorms this morning while a weak southwestward moving frontal boundary over NE TX and W LA is producing a few showers. Surprisingly nothing over the Gulf waters with all the deep moisture in place. The NW TX upper level low will remain nearly stationery today and have little influence on our weather, while the frontal boundary over W LA slowly settles WSW into east TX and possibly as far SW as our NE counties (around the Livingston area). Expect this boundary to be the focus for early afternoon thunderstorm development as trigger temperatures in the upper 80’s are reached. Gusty outflow winds are possible with these storms and the overall steering pattern is toward the SSW so the storms and their outflow will move deeper into the area and likely collide at some point with the northward moving seabreeze. Overall feel the best chances will be along and NE of a line from College Station to Katy to Galveston.

Factors appear to be slightly more favorable for thunderstorms on Thursday with the NW TX upper level low moving closer to the area and moisture reaching its peak along with the diffuse frontal boundary in the area. Thunderstorms should develop by late morning and continue through the afternoon hours on Thursday. Slow storm motions and focusing boundaries could produce excessive short term rainfall amounts, but lack of favorable low level inflow should make these cases isolated and keep storm organization loose.

Upper level low will open into an elongated trough over the region Friday with the trough axis pushing east of the area by Saturday. Deep moisture will linger across the region on Friday and expect another day of good rainfall coverage. Rain chances look to start to lower over the weekend as the trough moves eastward and ridging builds into the area from Mexico. Feel it is best to retain at least 30% for both Saturday and Sunday and many times deep tropical moisture is hard to dislodge.

Rainfall amounts for today-Saturday will average .5-1.5 inches across the area with isolated amounts of 2-4 inches possible. A few locations could see greater totals especially just north of our region where the upper level circulation will track and meso models are showing more organized storms with very heavy rainfall.

[DoctorMu]

Oops Hunstville is out of commission

https://twitter.com/NWSHouston/status/210414505459593217/photo/1