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Least Snowiest Starts For Chicago In History Thru December

Chicago WX

By Chicago WX,
in Lakes/Ohio Valley

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Chicago WX

Chicago WX

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Maybe this thread is premature, heh, but I went back and looked at the least snowiest starts to winter season snowfall throughout Chicago's recorded history (1884-85 to present for snowfall records). Granted October snow is a crap shoot and November snow is typically light, but with December usually being the real kick-off month to snowfall...I took the totals of those 3 months and came up with the 25 least snowiest starts. Keep in mind that the official site has moved around quite a bit through the years, especially prior to 1942...but the for all intents and purposes, the idea stands. As of today at 4PM, the season snowfall at ORD stands at 1.7".

The amounts for Oct-Dec are ordered from the worst to 25th worst. The averages at the bottom, highlighted in yellow, are of all the years in Chicago's recorded history...even despite the different sites throughout time. The last column highlighted in green, is the amount and percentage of months, Jan-May periods, and seasons that reached or exceeded the averages. Blue highlighted boxes are those that reached or exceeded the longterm average.

Well, what can we decipher from the stats below? Obviously reaching or exceeding the average season snowfall total is a very long shot...but with the subpar totals through the end of December, that shouldn't be a surprise. But January is essentially a 50/50 shot to do it, with February and March being a little less likely...and Jan-May average snowfall in the same boat as Feb and Mar. Getting a 10"+ snowstorm is below the longterm average, but there were still 5 storms that did it in those winters above. Moral of the story, don't give up hope if you're in Chicago...even if past history/the odds aren't exactly the greatest. :)

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Chicago WX

Chicago WX

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What about the above average year with the smallest event?

I don't have all of the events under 10", especially going farther back in time. Here is a short list of the snowiest seasons without an official 10" event though.

2007-08: 60.3"

1981-82: 59.3"

1973-74: 58.3"

1884-85: 54.0"

1940-41: 52.5"

1959-60: 50.9"

1983-84: 49.0"

1992-93: 46.9"

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Snowstorms

Snowstorms

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Posted

Maybe this thread is premature, heh, but I went back and looked at the least snowiest starts to winter season snowfall throughout Chicago's recorded history (1884-85 to present for snowfall records). Granted October snow is a crap shoot and November snow is typically light, but with December usually being the real kick-off month to snowfall...I took the totals of those 3 months and came up with the 25 least snowiest starts. Keep in mind that the official site has moved around quite a bit through the years, especially prior to 1942...but the for all intents and purposes, the idea stands. As of today at 4PM, the season snowfall at ORD stands at 1.7".

The amounts for Oct-Dec are ordered from the worst to 25th worst. The averages at the bottom, highlighted in yellow, are of all the years in Chicago's recorded history...even despite the different sites throughout time. The last column highlighted in green, is the amount and percentage of months, Jan-May periods, and seasons that reached or exceeded the averages. Blue highlighted boxes are those that reached or exceeded the longterm average.

If I were to look at some of those Winters in Toronto this is what I get;

43-44: 43.3"

12-13: 39.8"

39-40: 47.8"

98-99: 63.2"

1889-90: 44.2"

36-37: 27.7"

93-94: 60"

71-72: 71"

03-04: 43.3"

01-02: 28.1"

82-83: 27.7"

22-23: 80.7"

1905-06: 30.2"

1892-93: 73.8"

23-24: 71.7"

1906-07: 47.6"

90-91: 41"

1899-00: 68.3"

1999-00: 32.3"

1908-09: 75.5"

28-29: 33.7"

1888-89: 60.4"

38-39: 82.6"

86-87: 57.8"

24-25: 51.1"

Seasonal avg: 51"

Some seasons above were crap but some were awesome. Amazing how Chicago saw so little in some Winters where Toronto saw record amounts? Odd?

Anyways nice work. Lets hope this season is suprising and better than wat we have seen thus far.

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Chicago WX

Chicago WX

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Some seasons above were crap but some were awesome. Amazing how Chicago saw so little in some Winters where Toronto saw record amounts? Odd?

Anyways nice work. Lets hope this season is suprising and better than wat we have seen thus far.

It's probably not really that odd...the larger differences between Chicago and Toronto in some of those winters. The same holds true between Chicago and Detroit in some winters...and even some for Milwaukee and Chicago, which are relatively close to each other.

Plus, 15 of the seasons listed were at locations close to the Lake, so that may make a difference for Chicago...especially in warmer winters, etc. Of course the opposite is also true in some winters.

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michsnowfreak

michsnowfreak

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Nice stats Tim, as always.

So far Detroit has had 5.4" of snow this season, I already count 24 years (out of 131) where less than 5.4" fell through Dec 31st. That number of course probably will go up as some the month is just over half over. As much as the pattern sucks, and we have yet to see that snowfall that blankets everything (including the roads), it is definitely not a historically bad start here. Also, with Clevelands heavy snowfall today, I assume the same can be said for them. While the chances of a very snowy winter may be decreasing, it is only as a deficit is building. Doesnt mean there cant be very nice periods after the New Year, and weve all seen our share of the record books for snowfall in recent years, so even if my forecast of widespread above normal snow busts, lets just get some winter! It IS coming :)

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Chicago WX

Chicago WX

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Nice stats Tim, as always.

So far Detroit has had 5.4" of snow this season, I already count 24 years (out of 131) where less than 5.4" fell through Dec 31st. That number of course probably will go up as some the month is just over half over. As much as the pattern sucks, and we have yet to see that snowfall that blankets everything (including the roads), it is definitely not a historically bad start here. Also, with Clevelands heavy snowfall today, I assume the same can be said for them. While the chances of a very snowy winter may be decreasing, it is only as a deficit is building. Doesnt mean there cant be very nice periods after the New Year, and weve all seen our share of the record books for snowfall in recent years, so even if my forecast of widespread above normal snow busts, lets just get some winter! It IS coming :)

Thanks Josh.

Believe it or not, my intention for this thread was to give some hope to the Chicago contingent. :) Of course the month isn't over, even if it doesn't look all that hot going forward. But, surprises do happen. Still, snowfall is off to a slow start for ORD...that can't be debated at the moment. Hopefully the change to snowier times happens for a lot of us. I expect it will at some point...but yeah, in the end it may not be a widespread banner snowfall season...though getting close to average may be good enough. Alas, can't win them all.

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