Hudson Bay Winter of 2011-2012 Tracking Thread

[The_Global_Warmer]

This post will be to track the Husdon Bay Sea Ice, SSTs, and anything related to Hudson Bay Weather and Water. Also the local regions weather on either side of the Hudson or most of Northern Canada that pertains to Sea Ice, SSTs, or local weather.

A Poll will accompany the thread that is solely to track the date the Hudson will completely freeze over. The following two products will be used AS PRIMARY SOURCES to track the Sea Ice and freeze over date. But only the BREMEN 6.25KM GRID RES MAP WILL BE USED FOR THE OFFICIAL DATE:

Bremen 6.25km grid with ASI Version 5.2 on 1.19.11

the last remaining open water visible to this graph went bye bye between the 19th and 21st.

Click here for entire AMSRE BREMEN DATASET

Bremen on 2/8/10 You can see open water now

over the NW part of the Hudson. Should the contest

only be the first day Hudson is completely frozen

or when it stays frozen for the freeze season?

For this year we will be using the first day of

complete freeze on the Bremen 6.25km sea ice visual graph.

Another great service is the CIS webpage from Environment Canada.

CIS-ENVIRONMENT CANADA LINK

Most of the Sea Ice Products out there:

OVER 30 MAINSTREAM GRAPHS

weather models:

Raliegh Weather Models

NICE GERMAN SITE WITH MOST WEATHER MODELS.

Important data:

Recent average freeze dates on the Bremen data set:(rough estimates)

2010-11: Jan 21

2009-10: Dec 26

2008-09: Dec 20

2007-08: Dec 14

2006-07: Dec 26

2005-06: Dec 23

I have to get going and take my son to a Birthday Party. I will put some more current info regarding the region tonight.

[The_Global_Warmer]

This thread will contain large images sometimes..just a warning.

Ice coverage this summer in this region has been very low..not historically low, but only because 2010 was. As well a few other years.

Another Graph illustrating the recent large ice departures locally.

Current SSTs in the region in Celsius.

The Hudson has been slowly warming while under some relatively "cool" local weather that is about to switch to record warmth.

the SSTs there are already at record high levels with half of the bay 3-5C above normal.

[The_Global_Warmer]

14-18C with pockets of 20C 850 temps surge Northward on the nose of a 50+ Knot jet max.

Averages around the West and Southwest side of the Hudson between the 5th and 10th are highs in the low 30 North side to Highs in the low 40s South side. With record highs in the 50s in most locations. We will see widespread low to mid 70s possibly reaching the lake shore this week. with most days in the upper 50s to mid 60s everywhere up there.

It looks like the new climate in the region is here to stay. Record highs the last few years and now are being smashed with the books being rewritten..averages are being lifted up like My Olympia doing a clean and jerk.

It is very very fascinating and sad all at the same time.

[skierinvermont]

I was just going through looking at some of the freeze up data you provided and I found that 09-10 actually was frozen by Dec 26 2009 not Jan 10-12 2010. The SE corner either melted or the ice was blown offshore in early January. It then refroze by Jan 10-12 as you said.

In 08-09 it was 100% frozen before Dec 26.

I think it would be best if we use first freeze by date not the permanent freeze by date. You can have the ice blown offshore at any time of year by strong winds.

[skierinvermont]

2010-11: January 19th-21st 2011

2009-10: January 10th-12th 2010

2008-09: December 30th-Jan 2nd(2009)

2007-08: December 26th-28th(2007)

2006-07: January 7th-9th(2007)

2005-06: December 24th-26th

FWIW here are my estimates of freeze by dates... I came up with some pretty different dates than you did. The only year we agreed on was '10-'11 (and only 1 day different '05-'06). The other 4 years there were large discrepancies.

2010-11: Jan 21

2009-10: Dec 26

2008-09: Dec 20

2007-08: Dec 14

2006-07: Dec 26

2005-06: Dec 23

There's a decent correlation with Oct 1 SSTs I noticed casually looking through. (08-09 and 07-08 had the coldest October SSTs and the earliest freeze by dates). But a lot of it has to do with the weather we see in December.. particularly a west based -NAO which leads to warmer weather over the eastern Hudson Bay.

I would guess Dec 28, with a 90% confidence interval of something like Dec 18- Jan 15. I don't think it is very predictable this far in advance. All I can say at this point is I would rule out an early freeze by (prior to Dec 18) based on the record warm SSTs. Other than that, anything is possible and I only chose Jan 15 as the late limit because I believe last year was the first time it failed to freeze by the end of December. I think it broke the previous record (in the satellite era) by 3 weeks. There is a significant long-term trend towards a later freeze by date, but last year was an incredible anomaly.

[The_Global_Warmer]

FWIW here are my estimates of freeze by dates... I came up with some pretty different dates than you did. The only year we agreed on was '10-'11 (and only 1 day different '05-'06). The other 5 years there were large discrepancies.

2010-11: Jan 21

2009-10: Dec 26

2008-09: Dec 20

2007-08: Dec 14

2006-07: Dec 26

2005-06: Dec 23

There's a decent correlation with Oct 1 SSTs I noticed casually looking through. (08-09 and 07-08 had the coldest October SSTs and the earliest freeze by dates). But a lot of it has to do with the weather we see in December.. particularly a west based -NAO which leads to warmer weather over the eastern Hudson Bay.

I would guess Dec 28, with a 90% confidence interval of something like Dec 18- Jan 14. I don't think it is very predictable this far in advance. All I can say at this point is I would rule out an early freeze by (prior to Dec 18) based on the record warm SSTs. Other than that, anything is possible and I only chose Jan 14 as the late limit because I believe last year was the first time it failed to freeze by the end of December. I think it broke the previous record (in the satellite era) by 3 weeks. There is a significant long-term trend towards a later freeze by date, but last year was a very large anomaly.

thanks for correcting that. I went from mid January backwards so the water probably opened back up. I was looking for no open water...now obviously the Bremen charts go to 10 percent or 15 percent. but should be pretty accurate for something like the Hudson.

For it to be before January 1st this year...we would need some very cold air to be in place for quite a while.

I wil try to find a buoy profile or two to see how deep the record warm water goes.

And possibly some updated salinity charts.

[skierinvermont]

thanks for correcting that. I went from mid January backwards so the water probably opened back up. I was looking for no open water...now obviously the Bremen charts go to 10 percent or 15 percent. but should be pretty accurate for something like the Hudson.

I thought you might have done that.. I worked forward from December which I think was faster to do because it often seems to open back up briefly due to winds, which you wouldn't realize if you were working backwards from January. A couple times I was working backwards and thought I had found the first freeze by date, only to realize that it had actually frozen earlier and then opened back up again.

I'd correct the info in the original post if I were you (if you agree with the dates I gave). You also might want to add a couple more options to break up the Dec 16-31 block, because I think a lot of people will want to guess in that time frame (or the early January blocks) based on the earlier climo dates I provided. I think last year was the only year in history that the freeze occurred after Dec 31, so despite the record warm SSTs I would be hesitant to guess in January.

[skierinvermont]

For it to be before January 1st this year...we would need some very cold air to be in place for quite a while.

I wil try to find a buoy profile or two to see how deep the record warm water goes.

And possibly some updated salinity charts.

If we found data that shows the OHC to be record warm as well I would consider adjusting my guess later than Dec 28 to something like Jan 1 or Jan 4.

[The_Global_Warmer]

If we found data that shows the OHC to be record warm as well I would consider adjusting my guess later than Dec 28 to something like Jan 1 or Jan 4.

I have looked for that current data to no avail.

Does any of the ESA Sats have satellite derived products showing that?

I know the ESA has tons of satellite info this forum completely neglects. But I haven't had much time to get into it. There is so much out there now days it almost feels endless.

[skierinvermont]

For some historical perspective, Hudson's Bay used to consistently freeze by early December and sometimes even late November. Now it doesn't consistently freeze by late December. The average freeze by date has moved 3-4 weeks later.

The only other year besides 2010-2011 that didn't freeze by the end of December is 2001-2002. 2001-2002 froze by January 5. So '10-'11 broke the old record by 2.5 weeks.

[skierinvermont]

I think my guess of Dec 28 would be the 4th latest freeze on record, only '10-11 (Jan 21), '01-02 (Jan 5) and '99-00 (Dec 31) would be later. I don't feel comfortable guessing later than Dec 28 based on SSTs alone when weather is the predominant factor. I'll look for some OHC data, if OHC is extreme as the SSTs, then I would adjust my guess a few days later, but weather will still be a major factor.

[The_Global_Warmer]

The weather is important but is also affected by ice as well. But possible not that much come late December since the ice is rapidly expanding.

It is truly a different place now.

We are now in a period where we will see how much the ice has an affect on the regional weather between say 55N and 65N during the Fall months with the lack there of.

[skierinvermont]

I found sea height anomaly maps but they fluctuate too much on a weekly/daily basis because sea height is strongly affected by SLP in addition to OHC.

[The_Global_Warmer]

I think my guess of Dec 28 would be the 4th latest freeze on record, only '10-11 (Jan 21), '01-02 (Jan 5) and '99-00 (Dec 31) would be later. I don't feel comfortable guessing later than Dec 28 based on SSTs alone when weather is the predominant factor. I'll look for some OHC data, if OHC is extreme as the SSTs, then I would adjust my guess a few days later, but weather will still be a major factor.

I am at the moment assuming salinity is up because evaporation will be up from warmer local weather during the open water season. This fall so far has seen warm regional temps. I know it is a small sample size. But in 10 days there will be widespread 8-14C positive mean temp anomalies accross all of central Canada reaaching the Hudson. With the mean flow Westerly or South Westerly.

http://www.theweathernetwork.com/fourteenday/camb0033/table?ref=tabs_14day_table

those are the forecasts from Environment Canada. but are likely to cold..they have been inching up the last couple of days.

The last heat wave was about to shatter records before a pesky backdoor cold front came in when temps hit 68F at 11AM!!! Would have ended up around 75F that day.

The October max is 20.3C there if my math is correct that is 67-68F. Daily average mean temp for the month there historically is -1.7C(29.5F) that goes back to the 1930s.

There average high the 1st-14th is 3c with the low -2c. They might end up with 8 -10 days above 10C and 3-4 above 15C.

Models blow torch them come wednesday with 14-18C 850s and keep them mostly between 5-14C 850s for most of the first 10 days of October. I am very interested to see how warm this area is in October to see how much this affects the Hudson bay SSTS

[TerryM]

Thanks so much for this thread.

I've followed the arctic melt this year and found the subject engrossing. Hudson Bay's freeze up may prove even more exciting.

Don't understand many of the weather charts, but Environment Canada has some great satellite animations that are helpful.

Keep the facts flowing!

[The_Global_Warmer]

After the record setting Torch Models suggest a return to above average temperatures for the region.

yesterdays SSTS(10-2-11)

Todays SSTs(10-3-11):

[Mencken_Fan]

Thanks for the thread. I've followed the Arctic and Antarctic on the internet since the 1990s but never really paid much attention to Hudson Bay. (For some reason, since childhood, 1950s-'60s, I've always called that body of water; "Hudson's Bay" but apparently it is indeed "Hudson Bay.")

Anyway, I'll put my chips on Jan 5th.

[LithiaWx]

I think that the abnormally slow freeze the last two years is due to the deep and extended Greenland blocks that have been present. Weather patterns such as this will have a much more enormous impact than above average SST's....

I'm going with 12/17-12/24

[The_Global_Warmer]

waters in the Beaufort have gained 3-4C over a pretty wide area just in a couple days of warm air advection..while the Hudson has cooled a bit from the opposite CAA, which is ending now.

Churchhill Manitoba which is where that 6C SST is on the west side of the Hudson.

they are forecasted to have highs in the 12-16C range the next 6 days with lows around 8-10C, cooling to 5-7C at the end of the period.

Averages are highs of 2-3C with lows of -2 to -3C right now. We might see a day or two around 15-18C if enough sun is seen.

This is from this:

Overall the Hudson will be under 10 days of well above normal temps..

This should warm most of the lake back to record SSTS.

As you can see this is not the run of the mill heat wave. That is some extreme warmth for this time of year.

[The_Global_Warmer]

00z GFS:

Day 1-5:

Day 6-10:

Pretty big torch for the southern part of the lake.

with no below normal air in sight.

[The_Global_Warmer]

Churchhil which is right on the lake is currently 5C with a forecast of 12C/52F. Today's record high is 57F.

They will have mostly cloudy skies per forecast with gusty S winds.

850s are currently going up rapidly.

they were -5C yesterday.

now 2-3C, 8-10C by mid morning and 14-16C by late afternoon.

I think even with the clouds....a run for the record will be underway, especially if some sun can get going.

[The_Global_Warmer]

October 5th SSTS- the Hudson has cooled quite a bit the last few days.....which isn't to important...it is about to warm back up.

[TerryM]

My WAG is for Jan 16th

I think that climate here in Canada is in an extremely chaotic state and that almost anything is possible. I saw days this summer where Chisasibi was warmer than Montreal, where Churchill was warmer than Toronto and where Labrador had readings higher than Vancouver.

Thousands of hectares of wheat fields in the prairies were under water in May and June - possibly suitable for rice production but not for grain.

At some point in the not too distant future Hudson Bay's late freeze will coincide with the early melt. Perhaps then someone will take notice.

[skierinvermont]

I've been to Chisasibi!

Also I would give anybody 2:1 odds in their favor that it freezes before Jan 10. Also I think it would take at least 75 years further of continued CO2 emissions for Hudson Bay not to freeze in winter.. perhaps longer.

[roardog]

My WAG is for Jan 16th

I think that climate here in Canada is in an extremely chaotic state

Flying pigs and werewolves are probably accompanying this chaos as well.

[Sunny and Warm]

My WAG is for Jan 16th

I think that climate here in Canada is in an extremely chaotic state and that almost anything is possible. I saw days this summer where Chisasibi was warmer than Montreal, where Churchill was warmer than Toronto and where Labrador had readings higher than Vancouver.

Thousands of hectares of wheat fields in the prairies were under water in May and June - possibly suitable for rice production but not for grain.

At some point in the not too distant future Hudson Bay's late freeze will coincide with the early melt. Perhaps then someone will take notice.

Hyperbole at its finest. Of course, all those things occurred in the past as well, but let's not bring up "an inconvenient truth".

[TerryM]

Skier - Did you run into Sherman in Chisasibi?

.

I hope you are right about the 75 years - When I was up there the geese decided to fly further north which really messed up the annual Goose Day celebrations and melting permafrost had played hell with the road.

Sherman's father used to deliver mail to the Belcher Islands - by dog sled.

BTW did you get a chance to ride in one of the Chisasibi canoes - never experienced anything quite like it.

Cheers

Terry

[Sunny and Warm]

Flying pigs and werewolves are probably accompanying this chaos as well.

sounds a bit like a Dr Who episode with Chaos mentioned. Ah, the good old days. I once saw a flying pig at the Cincinnati airport, and bought it, so they aren't that unusual. I would like to see a rice paddy at the arctic circle though. That'd be worth a good laugh.

[skierinvermont]

Skier - Did you run into Sherman in Chisasibi?

.

I hope you are right about the 75 years - When I was up there the geese decided to fly further north which really messed up the annual Goose Day celebrations and melting permafrost had played hell with the road.

Sherman's father used to deliver mail to the Belcher Islands - by dog sled.

BTW did you get a chance to ride in one of the Chisasibi canoes - never experienced anything quite like it.

Cheers

Terry

No, unfortunately we didn't stay very long. It was sort of a spur of the moment thing my friends and I did after fall exams sophomore year of college to blow off some steam. We just decided to go as far north as possible.. drove north 24 hours and spent the night at a hotel in Radisson.. drove to Chisasibi the next day then 24 hrs straight home. We did talk to the gas station attendant in Chisasibi who was telling us how warm it was (it was about 5F which is something like 25 degrees above average for Dec 21-22). We also stopped on the road south of Radisson and climbed a small hill which was cool because there were small trees between the hills but the anything above 100' elevation had few or no trees. Also a lot of caribou. I wish we had stayed longer and explored more.

On the topic of Hudson Bay freeze date.. I found this recent paper which models that by 2041-2070 the Hudson bay would freeze 100% by late January, about 1 month later than present, which is 3 weeks later than the 1980s. So I think that supports my guess of 75+ years until it fails to freeze 100% in winter. Of course even 75+ years from now the northern portion would still freeze in winter. It would probably take 100-150+ years of high CO2 emissions to prevent ice entirely on Hudson Bay.

http://www.springerl...24/fulltext.pdf

[Mencken_Fan]

I've been to Chisasibi!

Also I would give anybody 2:1 odds in their favor that it freezes before Jan 10. Also I think it would take at least 75 years further of continued CO2 emissions for Hudson Bay not to freeze in winter.. perhaps longer.

Never heard of "Chisasibi" but rode the train from Fairbanks to Anchorage....and boy oh boy is that some beautiful country up there!

I spent one year in Southwest Alaska (1972-73)................highest air temp was 72F, lowest air temp was -28F (it was an unusually cold year.) What surprised me most was, even in Southwest Alaska it was all tundra. The difference between our grassy lawns and tundra is night and day. One has to see and walk on tundra to believe/appreciate it.