andyhb Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Decided to start this for the tornado events from Hurricane Irene. Here's the watch (70/20 tor probs): URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 809 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 815 PM EDT FRI AUG 26 2011 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF FAR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING FROM 815 PM UNTIL 500 AM EDT. TORNADOES...HAIL TO 0.5 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 30 STATUTE MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA TO 15 MILES SOUTHWEST OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 808... DISCUSSION...DISCRETE SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITH LOW LVL ROTATION EXPECTED TO PERSIST ALONG ARC OF LOW LVL CONFLUENCE NOW LOCATED OVER THE NC CSTL WATERS ON NRN FRINGE OF CIRCULATION OF HRCN IRENE. AS IRENE CONTINUES SLOWLY NWD...THE CONFLUENCE BAND SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT NWD...WITH ADDITIONAL WARMING/MOISTENING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER OCCURRING IN ITS VICINITY. THIS MAY ALLOW THE LOW LVL CIRCULATIONS...AND THEIR ATTENDANT TORNADO THREAT...TO SPREAD FARTHER W WITH TIME...IMPACTING THE BARRIER ISLANDS FIRST AND...LATER THIS EVE/EARLY SAT...FAR ERN PORTIONS OF THE NC CSTL PLN. GIVEN EXISTING WIND PROFILES...AND THE LIKELIHOOD FOR SOME STRENGTHENING OF THE LOW LVL WIND FIELD IN WW AREA LATER TNGT...EXPECT THAT TORNADO RISK WILL INCREASE WITH TIME...ESPECIALLY OVER FAR ERN AND NERN NC AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 0.5 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 12035. ...CORFIDI Also, here's a new MD: MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2063 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1006 PM CDT FRI AUG 26 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...SE VA...ERN NC CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 809... VALID 270306Z - 270430Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 809 CONTINUES. THE TORNADO THREAT WILL LIKELY SPREAD NWD INTO NE NC AND SE VA LATE THIS EVENING. A TORNADO WATCH IS BEING CONSIDERED AND SHOULD BECOME NECESSARY. THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE IS LOCATED ABOUT 180 STATUTE MILES SOUTH OF CAPE HATTERAS. THE OUTERMOST RAINSHIELD IS CURRENTLY NEAR THE NE NC-SE VA STATE-LINE AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NWD INTO SERN VA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SEVERAL ROTATING CELLS ARE LOCATED WITHIN THE BAND OVER NERN NC WHERE FORECAST SOUNDINGS LATE THIS EVENING SHOW 0-1 KM SHEAR VALUES INCREASING TO ABOVE 40 KT WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER IN THE 2.20 TO 2.40 INCH RANGE. IN ADDITION...A POCKET OF MODERATE INSTABILITY EXISTS ACROSS SERN VA WHERE MLCAPE VALUES ARE IN THE 1000 TO 1500 J/KG RANGE. THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD SUPPORT A THREAT OF TORNADOES WITH ROTATING STORMS THAT MOVE INLAND LATE THIS EVENING. THE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS THE CENTER OF IRENE APPROACHES THE COAST. ..BROYLES.. 08/27/2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsmwhrms Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Couple of tornado reports from law enforcement in eastern NC. One near Phelps Lake, and another in Beaufort County where a roof was blown off a car dealership. Looks to be plenty of rotating cells over eastern NC at this time, and plenty more over the ocean. Long night for MHX... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 seperate thread for the tornado side of things there are often many tornado warnings in landfalling tropical systems but the shear size may mean more then normal..also I have notice that systems with dry air issues oftern produce more tornadoes the those that don't especially in the outer bands that have mini supercells most of these tornadoes will form in the rightfront to front quad which, depending on the track, will be much of the coast Tornado watches up for NC and this will get expanded north as we go on usually tornadoes with tropical systems are on the weaker side F1-F2ish with a rare F3 here and there please only post confirmed tornadoes or warnings for major cities to get things started SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 1119 PM EDT FRI AUG 26 2011 NCC177-187-270345- /O.CON.KMHX.TO.W.0041.000000T0000Z-110827T0345Z/ TYRRELL NC-WASHINGTON NC- 1119 PM EDT FRI AUG 26 2011 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1145 PM EDT FOR NORTHERN WASHINGTON AND WEST CENTRAL TYRRELL COUNTIES... AT 1118 PM EDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR CENTER OF PHELPS LAKE...OR 18 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PLYMOUTH...MOVING WEST AT 40 MPH. PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 1047 PM EDT FRI AUG 26 2011 .TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON .DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE. ..REMARKS.. 1015 PM TORNADO BELHAVEN 35.54N 76.62W 08/26/2011 BEAUFORT NC 911 CALL CENTER ROOF BLOWN OFF EDGEWATER MOTORS DEALERSHIP 1015 PM TORNADO BELHAVEN 35.54N 76.62W 08/26/2011 BEAUFORT NC 911 CALL CENTER STRUCTURAL DAMAGE TO MULTIPLE TRAILERS ALONG BAY STREET Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 27, 2011 Author Share Posted August 27, 2011 New watch just issued for NC, VA and MD, includes Hampton Roads Metro. Will have details when they become available. ...And here they are (80/20 tor probs): TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 810 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1225 AM EDT SAT AUG 27 2011 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE OF MARYLAND FAR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA COASTAL WATERS EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY MORNING FROM 1225 AM UNTIL 1100 AM EDT. TORNADOES...HAIL TO 0.5 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES NORTH OF WALLOPS VIRGINIA TO 40 MILES SOUTHEAST OF NEW BERN NORTH CAROLINA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 809... DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND SCTD TSTMS EXPECTED TO PERSIST IN A W-E ARC OF LOW LVL CONFLUENCE MOVING NWD ACROSS NE NC AND THE ADJACENT CSTL WATERS ON NRN SIDE OF IMMEDIATE CIRCULATION OF HRCN IRENE. FARTHER N...A SEPARATE BAND OF MORE INTERMITTENT ACTIVITY MAY PERSIST AND MOVE NWD FROM OFF THE MOUTH OF CHESAPEAKE BAY. INCREASING LOW TO MID LVL WIND FIELD WITH THE CONTINUED NWD MOVEMENT OF IRENE...AND CONTINUED LOW LVL THETA-E ADVECTION AHEAD OF STORM...WILL CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR LOW LVL ROTATION/POSSIBLE TORNADOES NWD INTO TIDEWATER VA AND THE LWR ERN SHORE OF MARYLAND THROUGH MID/LATE MORNING SATURDAY...WHILE EXISTING THREAT PERSISTS OVER E CNTRL AND NE NC. AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 0.5 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 12045. ...CORFIDI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 27, 2011 Author Share Posted August 27, 2011 Tornado Location: COLUMBIA Local Date: 08/27/2011 Local Time: 12:05 AM EDT County: TYRRELL State: NC Source: LAW ENFORCEMENT Magnitude: Comments: POSSIBLE TORNADO NEAR 1400 BLOCK OF HIGHWAY 64. STRUCTURAL DAMAGE TO BUILDINGS WITH INJURIES REPORTED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 Question: Is there something making tornadoes a lot more likely tonight (like more of the right front quadrant being over land) or is Mt. Holly just more enthusiastic about issuing warnings? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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