Is FFC's coverage area too big?

[CherokeeGA]

Based on what you are promoting, a better question is, would you stay home if the NWS put you under a warning for a possible 1/4" of snow?

 

Given the state of the road support here, I can guarantee you that had we been under warning, the superintendent would have closed schools.  For many (if not most) in the area, schools closing is the official Sign To Work From Home.  (Without being outright canned or at least getting crap from your boss. ).

 

We could debate all day whether the schools' decisions should control wider population behavior, but the fact is, they do, whether we like it or not.

[max100]

Population isn't really the thing here... it's the significant geographical differences in the areas they cover.  There are three major ones, with a lot of shades in between - north mountains, north ex-mountains, and central.  Each one experiences some distinct weather differences from the others.

Classic example today in the FFC coverage area.  Their is almost a 30 degree difference from NW to SE.

[DaculaWeather]

You can't base it on temp span, especially for a CAD event, these happen all the time and are well understood. Forecasts are based on a grid anyway so not a big deal. Unless FFC feels like it's an issue, it really isn't an issue except in your own mind.

[AbsolutZero]

Wow, its back!  Whenever I google FFC and site:americanwx.com, this thread is always at the top.Thanks for reviving the topic and always open to helpful criticism or comments. Praise is fine too, but often its more helpful to hear what could be done better.  

 

SnowJam: 

As for the graphics we posted before a day or two before the SnowJam 2014 event, I can't help but be pleased with the amount forecast. Nowhere is it implied ATL (north or south metro) would have little impact. A day or two before that, yes they would have, but not those issued 2 days prior.  Our forecasts were further north than WPC, and most neighbors as the event approached.

 

Looking back, I think the takeaway for us is that we didn't do a good job being specific enough about the impact of fairly light snow. I believe the impact would have been the same even with 1/2" of snow, due to the melting and quick refreezing on roads.  Temps of 25-28 seem to be a sweet spot for this phenomenon, especially during the daytime, in my limited experience. Warmer than 28, and the snow will often melt on roads, especially when they're warm (remember Gwinnett and counties east of Atlanta did not have many road issues). Colder than 25, snow may accumulate on roads but not melt and refreeze. We are going to have a Georgia Tech senior who is interning at our office study this sweet spot and road temperatures as best as he can this semester.  What do you think the sweet spot is?  You guys have as much or more experience than me.  Really want to know!!

 

Coverage Area:

As I said previously, our geographic area is not any bigger than other large WFOs. The number of counties and thereby the number of EMs and county officials is probably the largest in the NWS, but we do have 2 extra forecasters and an Aviation program leader compared with other offices.  We are down a WCM and HMT, but compared to other offices, we are not hurting for staff at all.  You may have heard the hiring freeze is lifting, so slowly we will be getting offices back up to snuff.

 

I don't mind saying this. IMO I think this thread was originally started due to frustration by readers of some of our products and especially AFDs on winter and other significant weather from our office.  I hear you on this, but those who follow our office relative to other NWS offices and broadcast mets, know that things have changed in the last few years and its changed from within.  Managers have some ability to make short-term changes, but in my 20 year experience, the real leadership and culture of an office comes from the lead forecasters.  That's where this change has come from.  Great men and women who are not afraid of using the "S" word more than 2 days out, make great graphics, willing to jump in and do the not-so-fun stuff and lead by example.  

 

We will not write great AFD's or make good forecasts all the time, obviously.  Other offices are and will be better than we are with winter weather.  Its a team sport where no one bats 1.000, *but* we should aim to get the batting average as high as possible. Bad forecasts happen, but not making an effort is inexcusable.  I don't see a lot of that any more. Good forecasters learn from their mistakes and are not afraid to make another one when a bold forecast change is needed.

 

If I didn't address something said with the recent posts, I'll get to it soon. Been very busy with the AMS Annual Meeting at the GWCC which just wrapped up Thursday and NWS leadership (National and Regional HQ Directors) at the office yesterday.  Will try to catch up with this thread and the SnowJam thread this weekend.

 

 

Steve

[DaculaWeather]

Steve, right now is a prime example. We all see the trends with the models, and the potential for something major occurring here in the southeast, but the most recent AFD that just came out is a prime example of no information at all. It's easier to come here and find out what's going on than read the AFD right now. But this is really nothing that would tell anyone to even consider the possibilities.

 

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO MONDAY NIGHT AS ENHANCED MOISTURE
ADVECTS INTO AREA AND THERMAL PROFILES IN NORTH GEORGIA STILL SUPPORT
SOME LIGHT SNOW POTENTIAL. HAVE LEFT MAJORITY OF REMAINING LONG
TERM PERIOD ALONE AS LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS GREATLY DIVERGE IN
UPPER WAVE EVOLUTIONS AND MOISTURE FIELDS. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT
SOME WINTRY PRECIP IN NORTHERN PORTIONS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT.

 

I'm rooting for you guys and always defend you, but when people hear through the grapevine what may be coming quicker than they hear it from you all, there starts to be a disconnect between what's really going on in the background on your side, and what people are hearing elsewhere. This very important message is getting lost in the AFD's. 

[DaculaWeather]

And Steve, as much as anything, I think people just want to feel like FFC is participating in the process and not sitting on the sidelines afraid to say something. I truly believe that most people would rather you talk about it and get it wrong, than not talk about it and it happens. They feel like the office waits too long to pull the trigger, not only in the discussions but also in the forecast. 

 

Again, I appreciate everything you all do, I know it's a thankless job. Now bring us some winter weather... :-)

[LithiaWx]

Wow, its back!  Whenever I google FFC and site:americanwx.com, this thread is always at the top.Thanks for reviving the topic and always open to helpful criticism or comments. Praise is fine too, but often its more helpful to hear what could be done better.  

 

SnowJam: 

As for the graphics we posted before a day or two before the SnowJam 2014 event, I can't help but be pleased with the amount forecast. Nowhere is it implied ATL (north or south metro) would have little impact. A day or two before that, yes they would have, but not those issued 2 days prior.  Our forecasts were further north than WPC, and most neighbors as the event approached.

 

Looking back, I think the takeaway for us is that we didn't do a good job being specific enough about the impact of fairly light snow. I believe the impact would have been the same even with 1/2" of snow, due to the melting and quick refreezing on roads.  Temps of 25-28 seem to be a sweet spot for this phenomenon, especially during the daytime, in my limited experience. Warmer than 28, and the snow will often melt on roads, especially when they're warm (remember Gwinnett and counties east of Atlanta did not have many road issues). Colder than 25, snow may accumulate on roads but not melt and refreeze. We are going to have a Georgia Tech senior who is interning at our office study this sweet spot and road temperatures as best as he can this semester.  What do you think the sweet spot is?  You guys have as much or more experience than me.  Really want to know!!

 

Coverage Area:

As I said previously, our geographic area is not any bigger than other large WFOs. The number of counties and thereby the number of EMs and county officials is probably the largest in the NWS, but we do have 2 extra forecasters and an Aviation program leader compared with other offices.  We are down a WCM and HMT, but compared to other offices, we are not hurting for staff at all.  You may have heard the hiring freeze is lifting, so slowly we will be getting offices back up to snuff.

 

I don't mind saying this. IMO I think this thread was originally started due to frustration by readers of some of our products and especially AFDs on winter and other significant weather from our office.  I hear you on this, but those who follow our office relative to other NWS offices and broadcast mets, know that things have changed in the last few years and its changed from within.  Managers have some ability to make short-term changes, but in my 20 year experience, the real leadership and culture of an office comes from the lead forecasters.  That's where this change has come from.  Great men and women who are not afraid of using the "S" word more than 2 days out, make great graphics, willing to jump in and do the not-so-fun stuff and lead by example.  

 

We will not write great AFD's or make good forecasts all the time, obviously.  Other offices are and will be better than we are with winter weather.  Its a team sport where no one bats 1.000, *but* we should aim to get the batting average as high as possible. Bad forecasts happen, but not making an effort is inexcusable.  I don't see a lot of that any more. Good forecasters learn from their mistakes and are not afraid to make another one when a bold forecast change is needed.

 

If I didn't address something said with the recent posts, I'll get to it soon. Been very busy with the AMS Annual Meeting at the GWCC which just wrapped up Thursday and NWS leadership (National and Regional HQ Directors) at the office yesterday.  Will try to catch up with this thread and the SnowJam thread this weekend.

 

 

Steve

I appreciate you taking the time to reply again. I was the person who originally started the thread. I also believe that you guys are much better than you were when this thread was made. I hope you guys continue to evolve and improve over time.

[audioguy3107]

Steve, right now is a prime example. We all see the trends with the models, and the potential for something major occurring here in the southeast, but the most recent AFD that just came out is a prime example of no information at all. It's easier to come here and find out what's going on than read the AFD right now. But this is really nothing that would tell anyone to even consider the possibilities.

 

I also appreciate the feedback Steve as I have always been interested in reading the AFDs and see what the thinking is around the office.  I did have a question regarding winter weather watches vs. summertime watches (STW and Tornado Watches).  I know people down here completely freak out when there's a chance of snow, but I've always wondered why WSW don't seem to be used the same way as severe weather watches.  Now of course I realize that getting hit by a tornado is much worse than a 3 inch snowfall  but it always seems that WSW here in Georgia are more of a "get ready" for something to happen rather than a watch....to use the severe weather wording....."conditions are favorable for the development of _________"  

 

To use this weeks upcoming potential event, what would be wrong for using a Winter Storm Watch a day or so further in advance so the public will have some idea that the potential is there?  If the models don't pan out or it's turns out to be a little too warm here, the watch can be canceled just like a Severe TStorm Watch or Tornado Watch is canceled if the conditions don't pan out.  I've always thought that Winter Watches can or should be used the same way that a severe weather watch is used since potential impact could possibly be over a much larger area.

[AbsolutZero]

And Steve, as much as anything, I think people just want to feel like FFC is participating in the process and not sitting on the sidelines afraid to say something. I truly believe that most people would rather you talk about it and get it wrong, than not talk about it and it happens. They feel like the office waits too long to pull the trigger, not only in the discussions but also in the forecast. 

 

Again, I appreciate everything you all do, I know it's a thankless job. Now bring us some winter weather... :-)

 

I agree completely with this sentiment!  I preach this to the staff many times. According to some of our veterans, in the past, they would be criticized harshly for false alarms. Not just internally (the MIC at the time) but by some in the media (AJC, etc...)   I really don't think that's true now.  Not that it couldn't happen with a bust, but a lot less likely.

[AbsolutZero]

I also appreciate the feedback Steve as I have always been interested in reading the AFDs and see what the thinking is around the office.  I did have a question regarding winter weather watches vs. summertime watches (STW and Tornado Watches).  I know people down here completely freak out when there's a chance of snow, but I've always wondered why WSW don't seem to be used the same way as severe weather watches.  Now of course I realize that getting hit by a tornado is much worse than a 3 inch snowfall  but it always seems that WSW here in Georgia are more of a "get ready" for something to happen rather than a watch....to use the severe weather wording....."conditions are favorable for the development of _________"  

 

To use this weeks upcoming potential event, what would be wrong for using a Winter Storm Watch a day or so further in advance so the public will have some idea that the potential is there?  If the models don't pan out or it's turns out to be a little too warm here, the watch can be canceled just like a Severe TStorm Watch or Tornado Watch is canceled if the conditions don't pan out.  I've always thought that Winter Watches can or should be used the same way that a severe weather watch is used since potential impact could possibly be over a much larger area.

 

I also agree with this. For whatever reason, there is a great fear with issuing WS watches.  Our definition is at least 50% confidence that winter storm criteria will be met. In ER and others, there is a lot of pressure to *not* issue watches more than 48 hours out, supposedly due to the lack of accuracy and consistency of model forecasts of ptype, QPF, and snow ratios.  If a rain/snow line moves just north of DC, a 12"+ snow event becomes heavy rain and everyone blames the meteorologist. We've all seen that. My beef with this is if it really is important (the meteorology, accurate predictions of ptype, QPF, etc...) then invest in better science, better models, and reasonable computing power to run them!!!   

 

Point taken that we need a better way to communicate hazards or at least issue the watch sooner.  Ready, prepare, act is used internationally to prepare for disasters but lately we expect the media and government to do *all* the thinking for us.  You guys are all prepared and understand the information, but much of the public doesn't. We should do a better job providing likelihood of threats days, hours and minutes before in a efficient and scientifically appropriate way and let app developers (private and public sector) figure out how to warn people.  Google "FACETs NSSL pptx" and you'll see a great idea on the proper framework to do that!!

[LithiaWx]

Coverage area is still too big. BUT I've been very impressed over the past year at the improvements that have been made.

[Snowless in Carrollton]

Maybe the coverage area should be the same as the media market it's in. I don't like when a county is in the Atlanta media market but are outside the FFC coverage area. It doesn't make sense to me. I'm specifically talking about counties in East AL that are covered by the Birmingham NWS but are in the Atlanta TV market. I don't understand why areas far away from Peachtree City like the North GA mountains are covered by FFC but not areas less than 50 miles away in Alabama. 

[toxictwister00]

Maybe the coverage area should be the same as the media market it's in. I don't like when a county is in the Atlanta media market but are outside the FFC coverage area. It doesn't make sense to me. I'm specifically talking about counties in East AL that are covered by the Birmingham NWS but are in the Atlanta TV market. I don't understand why areas far away from Peachtree City like the North GA mountains are covered by FFC but not areas less than 50 miles away in Alabama. 

 

EDITED: I'm pretty sure that's like comparing apples to oranges. The viewing area for the local media outlets is not setup to be aligned to what the CWA for the NWS is. Coverage of local media is determined by DMAs (Designated Market Areas) which factors in population and nielsen ratings in determining coverage size. For example, Atlanta is #9 in the top 10 largest DMAs in the nation as of September 2014. The top 5 DMAs are: Dallas (#5), Philadelphia (#4), Chicago (#3), Los Angeles (#2), and of course New York City is #1 in the nation.

 

 

List of 200+ DMAs across the country

http://www.tvb.org/media/file/Nielsen_2014-2015_DMA_Ranks.pdf

 

Coverage map area

http://seventhpoint.com/images/pdfs/2012-2013%20Large%20DMA%20Map.pdf

[CherokeeGA]

Coverage area is still too big. BUT I've been very impressed over the past year at the improvements that have been made.

 

I still have concerns about the coverage area, as most of the guidance issued is wrong for my area.  I mentally subtract degrees and sometimes add/subtract moisture totals based on what I know about the terrain and how something is going to roll through here vs. what the forecast says.  I am super careful about storms even when they are not watched/warned.  The fact that forecasts often aren't quite right for the N GA mtns and extreme north foothills so often is, in fact, what drove me to learn more about weather forecasting and be a lurker in places like this board, so I can keep learning.  ~8 years ago we lost our roof to an unwarned/unwatched storm.  I want my family to be able to shelter when appropriate, and also to not ever have anyone caught out in a storm like last winter's again.

 

The above aside, I'm grateful that FFC has now lowered the winter storm warning threshold.  Hopefully our school superintendents will leverage the warnings as the cover they need to properly cancel school ahead of these winter storm events.  The schools being open was the #1 most damaging mistake during last winter's event.  If the schools close, many employers allow people to work from home if the company has the facilities to support it, or even take an impromptu sick or vacation day without penalty.  Would have been a lot less people caught out in that messy situation if the kids had been home.

[LithiaWx]

It's still too big.