tombo82685 Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 -nao looks stronger on this run compared to 0z, though not as strong as what we are dealing with right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ger Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 -nao looks stronger on this run compared to 0z, though not as strong as what we are dealing with right now Good. Damn thing is crushing our systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 hr 156 sub 498 thickness just north of great lakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 -nao looks stronger on this run compared to 0z, though not as strong as what we are dealing with right now The -NAO is going to continue to dominate... maybe a brief run at neutral, but nothing more. I saw in a thread today someone posted the -NAO progs, and models have been underestimating the -NAO in a major way the past few weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 looks like clipper coming down into montana hr 168, 504 thickness in buffalo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 2, 2010 Author Share Posted December 2, 2010 yea, it's fairly cold.. especially next Thursday.. much of NY state is -16 or below at 850 mb... nothing mind blowing, but definitely chilly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 The -NAO is going to continue to dominate... maybe a brief run at neutral, but nothing more. I saw in a thread today someone posted the -NAO progs, and models have been underestimating the -NAO in a major way the past few weeks. yea the 0z had it, but the 12z is stronger with it, but not todays levels...yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 -12 to -16 850s for the big cities Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 hr 174 polar vortex over starting to come into ny, 504 thickness Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 2, 2010 Author Share Posted December 2, 2010 quite honestly.. as a whole.. the 500 mb still looks remarkably consistant to the last run, as where the GFS was just all over the place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 sub freezing highs next friday from philly north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 The -NAO is going to continue to dominate... maybe a brief run at neutral, but nothing more. I saw in a thread today someone posted the -NAO progs, and models have been underestimating the -NAO in a major way the past few weeks. We should be eternally grateful if this does happen to come to fruition, the blocking has been tenacious and saved us from torching several times already. The Pacific is in shambles--and a run or two of the ECMWF a few days ago showed the NAO collapsing. The result of the collapse was not pretty. That being said I think we are in the midst of a -NAO phase over the last year or two and I don't expect it to let up on average. This is not to say other forcing won't allow us to warm up, or things won't be transient, but I am of the belief that the NAO should be averaging neutral or negative this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 huge arctic airmass just dumped over to our side of the pole up in santa claus land Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 -12 to -16 850s for the big cities I hope the Vortex does not squash the mid month system. We will see in a few mins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 good lord, 504 thickness bearing down on boston, polar vortex is sliding right across the northeast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 2, 2010 Author Share Posted December 2, 2010 at 186, the -16 isotherm has made just south of Philly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 below zero lows for next friday over the interior Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 That PV is heading right for the 50/50 position again this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 hr 192, something is trying or looks like its trying to organize in the plains. siberia air coming down in canada, highs in the 25 to 35 below zero range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 2, 2010 Author Share Posted December 2, 2010 well, now I'm seeing that the ridge building over the Pacific is not as amplified as last run. We are now out to Dec. 10th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 looks like a sub 1008 low forming in central texas some precip building in the plains Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 2, 2010 Author Share Posted December 2, 2010 hmmmm.. boy.. there's a low up near Alaska which squashed the Pacific ridge... which really started getting that system going late in yesterday's run.. I'm not sure how this is gonna end up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 the nao isnt as negative right now compared to 0z, the huge arctice airmass droping south displaced the ridge to the east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 hr 204 storm is building in the plains, a good amount of ridging out ahead of this, not sure how this is going to end, might have something try to cut then redevlop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 sub -40 air in central canada Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 2, 2010 Author Share Posted December 2, 2010 we'll let this play out.. i'm not sure if this looks good.. it looks like a weaker more progressive system over the south.. the position of the low in the north pacific was way further west.. but now the positioning was south and east, below Alaska... it affected the whole amplification process which was leading to the development of this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 sub 1008 low in southern ark, this is going to try and cut this looks like, nice cad effect coming down the east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 2, 2010 Author Share Posted December 2, 2010 now we have our system trying to develop... heavy qpf over Louisiana and MS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 hr 216 the -nao is starting to come back the 50/50 low is still there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 2, 2010 Author Share Posted December 2, 2010 sub 1008 low in southern ark, this is going to try and cut this looks like, nice cad effect coming down the east coast. yep.. good news is we have a 1032 high parked nearby... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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