Cory Posted April 12, 2011 Share Posted April 12, 2011 QPF wise not sure since the track with these non-linear beasts is bound to change a lot--and a lot of final QPF values will likely be due to convective enhancement and banding. But yeah--I am uber pumped for this event. The winds alone will suggest potential blizzard criteria in wind driven snow. Just an amazing bomb storm. Never seen anything like it. Cover my shift on Friday so I can stay home and hide in my bedroom from this crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted April 13, 2011 Share Posted April 13, 2011 Wow.. Yet another epic LPS. Octobomb, GHD Blizzard and now this..This may be worthy of a name. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted April 13, 2011 Author Share Posted April 13, 2011 Wow.. Yet another epic LPS. Octobomb, GHD Blizzard and now this..This may be worthy of a name. How about either the "Birthday Storm" or the "Tax Day Storm"; whichever works better, assuming it bombs out Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted April 13, 2011 Share Posted April 13, 2011 How about either the "Birthday Storm" or the "Tax Day Storm"; whichever works better, assuming it bombs out Friday. Tax Day Storm FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted April 13, 2011 Share Posted April 13, 2011 QPF wise not sure since the track with these non-linear beasts is bound to change a lot--and a lot of final QPF values will likely be due to convective enhancement and banding. But yeah--I am uber pumped for this event. The winds alone will suggest potential blizzard criteria in wind driven snow. Just an amazing bomb storm. Never seen anything like it. 00Z NAM hammers LBF with 3.57 qpf...not sure on precip types but i'm sure you will have it all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted April 13, 2011 Share Posted April 13, 2011 00Z NAM hammers LBF with 3.57 qpf...not sure on precip types but i'm sure you will have it all. LBF would be all rain through 60 hours. Would be close to the end but 2m's are at 40 for the first 2-2.5" of QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted April 13, 2011 Share Posted April 13, 2011 LBF AFD congrats baro MODEL GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST 6 INCHES OFSNOW AT BOTH VALENTINE AND NORTH PLATTE BY MIDDAY FRIDAY. NATIONAL GUIDANCE WOULD OFFER UPWARDS TO 10 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE...WITH AT LEAST 4 INCHES OR GREATER FOR THE ENTIRE CWA. GROUND TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING THE 40S AND 50S...SO SNOW WILL STRUGGLE TO ACCUMULATE ON PAVED SURFACES. BUT WITH THE 6 HOUR MODEL QPF AT TIMES RUNNING 0.50 TO 1.00 INCH...SNOW RATES OF GREATER THAN TWO INCHES PER HOUR WOULD OCCUR. PLUS CROSS SECTIONS REVEAL NEGATIVE EPV ALOFT ADDING TO THE PROBABILITY OF ENHANCED SNOW RATES WHICH COULD ACCUMULATE ON ROADWAYS...CAUSING DIFFICULT TRAVEL. TO COMPLICATE THE FORECAST FURTHER...STRONG SUPPORT FROM THE DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS WOULD SUGGEST WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE GUSTING TO 65KTS FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH WIND CRITERIA WOULD BE MET IF THIS SITUATION IS REALIZED AS SUSTAINED WIND OF 45MPH WITH GUSTS EXCEEDING 60MPH WOULD BE EXPECTED. ALL IN ALL...HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR THIS STORM SYSTEM...WHETHER IT BE WIND...WINTER STORM OR BLIZZARD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted April 13, 2011 Share Posted April 13, 2011 euro qpf DLH SAT 06Z 16-APR -0.7 -6.0 1012 88 100 0.17 548 539 SAT 12Z 16-APR -1.9 -7.2 1005 91 87 0.29 541 537 SAT 18Z 16-APR 3.2 -6.4 1002 59 21 0.03 532 530 FAR FRI 12Z 15-APR -0.3 -3.0 1022 62 94 0.09 556 538 FRI 18Z 15-APR -1.0 -6.3 1022 83 95 0.37 554 537 SAT 00Z 16-APR -0.7 -5.1 1018 92 100 0.26 550 536 SAT 06Z 16-APR -2.7 -2.9 1015 95 17 0.06 545 533 GFK FRI 12Z 15-APR 0.0 -3.8 1024 30 81 0.01 556 536 FRI 18Z 15-APR -1.7 -7.1 1024 83 94 0.30 553 535 SAT 00Z 16-APR -1.2 -6.5 1019 95 89 0.34 549 533 SAT 06Z 16-APR -3.2 -4.2 1015 97 14 0.05 542 530 LBF THU 12Z 14-APR 2.8 0.9 1013 86 73 0.03 560 549 THU 18Z 14-APR 6.1 2.0 1010 88 91 0.06 558 550 FRI 00Z 15-APR 3.8 2.1 1008 96 100 0.43 556 549 FRI 06Z 15-APR 0.3 -1.5 1011 94 99 0.68 555 546 FRI 12Z 15-APR 0.2 -2.7 1012 91 97 0.42 552 542 FRI 18Z 15-APR 0.9 -3.4 1016 85 34 0.10 553 540 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted April 13, 2011 Share Posted April 13, 2011 euro qpf DLH SAT 06Z 16-APR -0.7 -6.0 1012 88 100 0.17 548 539 SAT 12Z 16-APR -1.9 -7.2 1005 91 87 0.29 541 537 SAT 18Z 16-APR 3.2 -6.4 1002 59 21 0.03 532 530 FAR FRI 12Z 15-APR -0.3 -3.0 1022 62 94 0.09 556 538 FRI 18Z 15-APR -1.0 -6.3 1022 83 95 0.37 554 537 SAT 00Z 16-APR -0.7 -5.1 1018 92 100 0.26 550 536 SAT 06Z 16-APR -2.7 -2.9 1015 95 17 0.06 545 533 GFK FRI 12Z 15-APR 0.0 -3.8 1024 30 81 0.01 556 536 FRI 18Z 15-APR -1.7 -7.1 1024 83 94 0.30 553 535 SAT 00Z 16-APR -1.2 -6.5 1019 95 89 0.34 549 533 SAT 06Z 16-APR -3.2 -4.2 1015 97 14 0.05 542 530 LBF THU 12Z 14-APR 2.8 0.9 1013 86 73 0.03 560 549 THU 18Z 14-APR 6.1 2.0 1010 88 91 0.06 558 550 FRI 00Z 15-APR 3.8 2.1 1008 96 100 0.43 556 549 FRI 06Z 15-APR 0.3 -1.5 1011 94 99 0.68 555 546 FRI 12Z 15-APR 0.2 -2.7 1012 91 97 0.42 552 542 FRI 18Z 15-APR 0.9 -3.4 1016 85 34 0.10 553 540 Unfortunately with the south shift and slightly less deepening--it is looking like a cold rain event with a stiff wind to make it colder. The snow threat will be northwest and north of us. We already have river flood issues--so the precip issue is going to important. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted April 13, 2011 Share Posted April 13, 2011 euro qpf DLH SAT 06Z 16-APR -0.7 -6.0 1012 88 100 0.17 548 539 SAT 12Z 16-APR -1.9 -7.2 1005 91 87 0.29 541 537 SAT 18Z 16-APR 3.2 -6.4 1002 59 21 0.03 532 530 FAR FRI 12Z 15-APR -0.3 -3.0 1022 62 94 0.09 556 538 FRI 18Z 15-APR -1.0 -6.3 1022 83 95 0.37 554 537 SAT 00Z 16-APR -0.7 -5.1 1018 92 100 0.26 550 536 SAT 06Z 16-APR -2.7 -2.9 1015 95 17 0.06 545 533 GFK FRI 12Z 15-APR 0.0 -3.8 1024 30 81 0.01 556 536 FRI 18Z 15-APR -1.7 -7.1 1024 83 94 0.30 553 535 SAT 00Z 16-APR -1.2 -6.5 1019 95 89 0.34 549 533 SAT 06Z 16-APR -3.2 -4.2 1015 97 14 0.05 542 530 LBF THU 12Z 14-APR 2.8 0.9 1013 86 73 0.03 560 549 THU 18Z 14-APR 6.1 2.0 1010 88 91 0.06 558 550 FRI 00Z 15-APR 3.8 2.1 1008 96 100 0.43 556 549 FRI 06Z 15-APR 0.3 -1.5 1011 94 99 0.68 555 546 FRI 12Z 15-APR 0.2 -2.7 1012 91 97 0.42 552 542 FRI 18Z 15-APR 0.9 -3.4 1016 85 34 0.10 553 540 I just signed up for a season pass at the schools golf course, and nearly saw a tornado last weekend and now we might get 6 inches of snow . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted April 13, 2011 Share Posted April 13, 2011 I just signed up for a season pass at the schools golf course, and nearly saw a tornado last weekend and now we might get 6 inches of snow . better buy some yellow or orange golf balls...you know your lovin it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted April 13, 2011 Share Posted April 13, 2011 better buy some yellow or orange golf balls...you know your lovin it. lol you're right, who am I kidding? 12" or bust!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted April 13, 2011 Share Posted April 13, 2011 lol you're right, who am I kidding? 12" or bust!! You just found the winning formula for breaching the impenetrable GFK weatherhole/weatherbuffer--hope against a storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted April 13, 2011 Share Posted April 13, 2011 You just found the winning formula for breaching the impenetrable GFK weatherhole/weatherbuffer--hope against a storm! haha true. I'm back to praying we get clobbered but maybe the weather has caught wind of my actions and will try to change the formula and really nail us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted April 14, 2011 Share Posted April 14, 2011 now that is messed up if you happen to live in MN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted April 14, 2011 Share Posted April 14, 2011 msp & dlh still has a shot on a few inches on the ggem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted April 14, 2011 Share Posted April 14, 2011 Anybody want to make a final call for snowfall accumulations before the flakes start flying? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted April 14, 2011 Share Posted April 14, 2011 Anybody want to make a final call for snowfall accumulations before the flakes start flying? which city? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted April 14, 2011 Share Posted April 14, 2011 Anybody want to make a final call for snowfall accumulations before the flakes start flying? I'll try this since mostly likely the last snow event of the season. BIS 3" FAR 4" GFK 4" LBF 2" MSP 1" VTN 5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted April 14, 2011 Share Posted April 14, 2011 MSN: T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted April 14, 2011 Share Posted April 14, 2011 have snow falling here now, huge flakes...not expecting much but still awesome as this was not forecast for today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted April 14, 2011 Share Posted April 14, 2011 have snow falling here now, huge flakes...not expecting much but still awesome as this was not forecast for today. Cold rain here. The guidance underestimated the strength of the ejecting IPV anomaly this morning--all guidance now coming in with a much strong bent back low in KS. Cold rain now--going to be a winter storm fest overnight with 50+ mph wind gusts and 5+ inches of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted April 14, 2011 Share Posted April 14, 2011 Just got off work--anyone have Euro qpf? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted April 14, 2011 Share Posted April 14, 2011 I had maybe 2 to 2.5" on the ground and about 3" on my car. Woohoo! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted April 14, 2011 Share Posted April 14, 2011 Just got off work--anyone have Euro qpf? LBF THU 18Z 14-APR 5.1 -0.1 1012 77 91 0.04 558 549 FRI 00Z 15-APR 2.3 1.1 1009 97 100 0.45 556 548 FRI 06Z 15-APR 0.7 -0.3 1009 93 100 0.80 554 546 FRI 12Z 15-APR 0.4 -2.4 1012 92 99 0.41 552 542 FRI 18Z 15-APR 0.8 -3.5 1015 85 41 0.12 552 539 SAT 00Z 16-APR 0.6 -0.2 1017 84 20 0.02 553 539 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted April 14, 2011 Share Posted April 14, 2011 Cold rain here. The guidance underestimated the strength of the ejecting IPV anomaly this morning--all guidance now coming in with a much strong bent back low in KS. Cold rain now--going to be a winter storm fest overnight with 50+ mph wind gusts and 5+ inches of snow. euro now gives my area couple inches tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted April 14, 2011 Share Posted April 14, 2011 LBF THU 18Z 14-APR 5.1 -0.1 1012 77 91 0.04 558 549 FRI 00Z 15-APR 2.3 1.1 1009 97 100 0.45 556 548 FRI 06Z 15-APR 0.7 -0.3 1009 93 100 0.80 554 546 FRI 12Z 15-APR 0.4 -2.4 1012 92 99 0.41 552 542 FRI 18Z 15-APR 0.8 -3.5 1015 85 41 0.12 552 539 SAT 00Z 16-APR 0.6 -0.2 1017 84 20 0.02 553 539 Thanks! Enjoy your part of the storm too. It is going to be fun watching this beast unfold. Nothing like spring weather in the plains. Doesn't get much better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted April 14, 2011 Share Posted April 14, 2011 Thanks! Enjoy your part of the storm too. It is going to be fun watching this beast unfold. Nothing like spring weather in the plains. Doesn't get much better. and possible repeat next week to some extent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted April 14, 2011 Share Posted April 14, 2011 PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE 427 PM CDT THU APR 14 2011 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0425 PM HEAVY SNOW IMPERIAL 40.52N 101.64W 04/14/2011 M2.0 INCH CHASE NE CO-OP OBSERVER CONTINUING TO EXPERIENCE THUNDERSNOW WITH ACCUMULATION OCCURING ON ALL ROAD SURFACES. VISIBILITIES HAS BEEN RANGING FROM 1/4 TO 1/2 MILE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted April 14, 2011 Share Posted April 14, 2011 PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE 427 PM CDT THU APR 14 2011 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0425 PM HEAVY SNOW IMPERIAL 40.52N 101.64W 04/14/2011 M2.0 INCH CHASE NE CO-OP OBSERVER CONTINUING TO EXPERIENCE THUNDERSNOW WITH ACCUMULATION OCCURING ON ALL ROAD SURFACES. VISIBILITIES HAS BEEN RANGING FROM 1/4 TO 1/2 MILE. This storm is absolutely insane... Our office busted out the WSW--talking potential for blizzard warning over some of the northern counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.