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April 14-16 Potential Snowstorm?


wisconsinwx

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QPF wise not sure since the track with these non-linear beasts is bound to change a lot--and a lot of final QPF values will likely be due to convective enhancement and banding. But yeah--I am uber pumped for this event. The winds alone will suggest potential blizzard criteria in wind driven snow. Just an amazing bomb storm. Never seen anything like it.

Cover my shift on Friday so I can stay home and hide in my bedroom from this crap. scooter.gif

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QPF wise not sure since the track with these non-linear beasts is bound to change a lot--and a lot of final QPF values will likely be due to convective enhancement and banding. But yeah--I am uber pumped for this event. The winds alone will suggest potential blizzard criteria in wind driven snow. Just an amazing bomb storm. Never seen anything like it.

00Z NAM hammers LBF with 3.57 qpf...not sure on precip types but i'm sure you will have it all.:thumbsup:

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LBF AFD

congrats baro

MODEL GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST 6 INCHES OF

SNOW AT BOTH VALENTINE AND NORTH PLATTE BY MIDDAY FRIDAY. NATIONAL

GUIDANCE WOULD OFFER UPWARDS TO 10 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL

PART OF THE STATE...WITH AT LEAST 4 INCHES OR GREATER FOR THE

ENTIRE CWA. GROUND TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING THE 40S AND 50S...SO

SNOW WILL STRUGGLE TO ACCUMULATE ON PAVED SURFACES. BUT WITH THE 6

HOUR MODEL QPF AT TIMES RUNNING 0.50 TO 1.00 INCH...SNOW RATES OF

GREATER THAN TWO INCHES PER HOUR WOULD OCCUR. PLUS CROSS SECTIONS

REVEAL NEGATIVE EPV ALOFT ADDING TO THE PROBABILITY OF ENHANCED

SNOW RATES WHICH COULD ACCUMULATE ON ROADWAYS...CAUSING DIFFICULT

TRAVEL. TO COMPLICATE THE FORECAST FURTHER...STRONG SUPPORT FROM

THE DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS WOULD SUGGEST WINDS JUST OFF THE

SURFACE GUSTING TO 65KTS FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH WIND CRITERIA WOULD

BE MET IF THIS SITUATION IS REALIZED AS SUSTAINED WIND OF 45MPH

WITH GUSTS EXCEEDING 60MPH WOULD BE EXPECTED. ALL IN

ALL...HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR THIS STORM

SYSTEM...WHETHER IT BE WIND...WINTER STORM OR BLIZZARD.

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euro qpf

DLH

SAT 06Z 16-APR  -0.7    -6.0    1012      88     100    0.17     548     539    
SAT 12Z 16-APR  -1.9    -7.2    1005      91      87    0.29     541     537    
SAT 18Z 16-APR   3.2    -6.4    1002      59      21    0.03     532     530

FAR

FRI 12Z 15-APR  -0.3    -3.0    1022      62      94    0.09     556     538    
FRI 18Z 15-APR  -1.0    -6.3    1022      83      95    0.37     554     537    
SAT 00Z 16-APR  -0.7    -5.1    1018      92     100    0.26     550     536    
SAT 06Z 16-APR  -2.7    -2.9    1015      95      17    0.06     545     533

GFK

FRI 12Z 15-APR   0.0    -3.8    1024      30      81    0.01     556     536    
FRI 18Z 15-APR  -1.7    -7.1    1024      83      94    0.30     553     535    
SAT 00Z 16-APR  -1.2    -6.5    1019      95      89    0.34     549     533    
SAT 06Z 16-APR  -3.2    -4.2    1015      97      14    0.05     542     530

LBF

THU 12Z 14-APR   2.8     0.9    1013      86      73    0.03     560     549    
THU 18Z 14-APR   6.1     2.0    1010      88      91    0.06     558     550    
FRI 00Z 15-APR   3.8     2.1    1008      96     100    0.43     556     549    
FRI 06Z 15-APR   0.3    -1.5    1011      94      99    0.68     555     546    
FRI 12Z 15-APR   0.2    -2.7    1012      91      97    0.42     552     542    
FRI 18Z 15-APR   0.9    -3.4    1016      85      34    0.10     553     540

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euro qpf

DLH

SAT 06Z 16-APR  -0.7    -6.0    1012      88 	100    0.17 	548 	539    
SAT 12Z 16-APR  -1.9    -7.2    1005      91      87    0.29 	541 	537    
SAT 18Z 16-APR   3.2    -6.4    1002      59      21    0.03 	532 	530

FAR

FRI 12Z 15-APR  -0.3    -3.0    1022      62      94    0.09 	556 	538    
FRI 18Z 15-APR  -1.0    -6.3    1022      83      95    0.37 	554 	537    
SAT 00Z 16-APR  -0.7    -5.1    1018      92 	100    0.26 	550 	536    
SAT 06Z 16-APR  -2.7    -2.9    1015      95      17    0.06 	545 	533

GFK

FRI 12Z 15-APR   0.0    -3.8    1024      30      81    0.01 	556 	536    
FRI 18Z 15-APR  -1.7    -7.1    1024      83      94    0.30 	553 	535    
SAT 00Z 16-APR  -1.2    -6.5    1019      95      89    0.34 	549 	533    
SAT 06Z 16-APR  -3.2    -4.2    1015      97      14    0.05 	542 	530

LBF

THU 12Z 14-APR   2.8 	0.9    1013      86      73    0.03 	560 	549    
THU 18Z 14-APR   6.1 	2.0    1010      88      91    0.06 	558 	550    
FRI 00Z 15-APR   3.8 	2.1    1008      96 	100    0.43 	556 	549    
FRI 06Z 15-APR   0.3    -1.5    1011      94      99    0.68 	555 	546    
FRI 12Z 15-APR   0.2    -2.7    1012      91      97    0.42 	552 	542    
FRI 18Z 15-APR   0.9    -3.4    1016      85      34    0.10 	553 	540

Unfortunately with the south shift and slightly less deepening--it is looking like a cold rain event with a stiff wind to make it colder. The snow threat will be northwest and north of us. We already have river flood issues--so the precip issue is going to important.

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euro qpf

DLH

SAT 06Z 16-APR  -0.7    -6.0    1012      88 	100    0.17 	548 	539    
SAT 12Z 16-APR  -1.9    -7.2    1005      91      87    0.29 	541 	537    
SAT 18Z 16-APR   3.2    -6.4    1002      59      21    0.03 	532 	530

FAR

FRI 12Z 15-APR  -0.3    -3.0    1022      62      94    0.09 	556 	538    
FRI 18Z 15-APR  -1.0    -6.3    1022      83      95    0.37 	554 	537    
SAT 00Z 16-APR  -0.7    -5.1    1018      92 	100    0.26 	550 	536    
SAT 06Z 16-APR  -2.7    -2.9    1015      95      17    0.06 	545 	533

GFK

FRI 12Z 15-APR   0.0    -3.8    1024      30      81    0.01 	556 	536    
FRI 18Z 15-APR  -1.7    -7.1    1024      83      94    0.30 	553 	535    
SAT 00Z 16-APR  -1.2    -6.5    1019      95      89    0.34 	549 	533    
SAT 06Z 16-APR  -3.2    -4.2    1015      97      14    0.05 	542 	530

LBF

THU 12Z 14-APR   2.8 	0.9    1013      86      73    0.03 	560 	549    
THU 18Z 14-APR   6.1 	2.0    1010      88      91    0.06 	558 	550    
FRI 00Z 15-APR   3.8 	2.1    1008      96 	100    0.43 	556 	549    
FRI 06Z 15-APR   0.3    -1.5    1011      94      99    0.68 	555 	546    
FRI 12Z 15-APR   0.2    -2.7    1012      91      97    0.42 	552 	542    
FRI 18Z 15-APR   0.9    -3.4    1016      85      34    0.10 	553 	540

I just signed up for a season pass at the schools golf course, and nearly saw a tornado last weekend and now we might get 6 inches of snow axesmiley.png .

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have snow falling here now, huge flakes...not expecting much but still awesome as this was not forecast for today.

Cold rain here. The guidance underestimated the strength of the ejecting IPV anomaly this morning--all guidance now coming in with a much strong bent back low in KS. Cold rain now--going to be a winter storm fest overnight with 50+ mph wind gusts and 5+ inches of snow.

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Just got off work--anyone have Euro qpf?

LBF

THU 18Z 14-APR   5.1    -0.1    1012      77      91    0.04     558     549    
FRI 00Z 15-APR   2.3     1.1    1009      97     100    0.45     556     548    
FRI 06Z 15-APR   0.7    -0.3    1009      93     100    0.80     554     546    
FRI 12Z 15-APR   0.4    -2.4    1012      92      99    0.41     552     542    
FRI 18Z 15-APR   0.8    -3.5    1015      85      41    0.12     552     539    
SAT 00Z 16-APR   0.6    -0.2    1017      84      20    0.02     553     539    

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Cold rain here. The guidance underestimated the strength of the ejecting IPV anomaly this morning--all guidance now coming in with a much strong bent back low in KS. Cold rain now--going to be a winter storm fest overnight with 50+ mph wind gusts and 5+ inches of snow.

euro now gives my area couple inches tomorrow night.

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LBF

THU 18Z 14-APR   5.1    -0.1    1012      77      91    0.04 	558 	549    
FRI 00Z 15-APR   2.3 	1.1    1009      97 	100    0.45 	556 	548    
FRI 06Z 15-APR   0.7    -0.3    1009      93 	100    0.80 	554 	546    
FRI 12Z 15-APR   0.4    -2.4    1012      92      99    0.41 	552 	542    
FRI 18Z 15-APR   0.8    -3.5    1015      85      41    0.12 	552 	539    
SAT 00Z 16-APR   0.6    -0.2    1017      84      20    0.02 	553 	539    

Thanks! Enjoy your part of the storm too. It is going to be fun watching this beast unfold. Nothing like spring weather in the plains. Doesn't get much better.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE

427 PM CDT THU APR 14 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...

..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....

..REMARKS..

0425 PM HEAVY SNOW IMPERIAL 40.52N 101.64W

04/14/2011 M2.0 INCH CHASE NE CO-OP OBSERVER

CONTINUING TO EXPERIENCE THUNDERSNOW WITH ACCUMULATION

OCCURING ON ALL ROAD SURFACES. VISIBILITIES HAS BEEN

RANGING FROM 1/4 TO 1/2 MILE.

post-252-0-26586700-1302819568.jpg

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE

427 PM CDT THU APR 14 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...

..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....

..REMARKS..

0425 PM HEAVY SNOW IMPERIAL 40.52N 101.64W

04/14/2011 M2.0 INCH CHASE NE CO-OP OBSERVER

CONTINUING TO EXPERIENCE THUNDERSNOW WITH ACCUMULATION

OCCURING ON ALL ROAD SURFACES. VISIBILITIES HAS BEEN

RANGING FROM 1/4 TO 1/2 MILE.

This storm is absolutely insane...

Our office busted out the WSW--talking potential for blizzard warning over some of the northern counties.

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