RyanDe680

IL with the daily chart topper. Very sad.

i know we are coming off a weekend, but lowest number of deaths and positive tests in 5 weeks for the country.

Interesting about this... ILI activity was very high in some areas in March - the harder hit areas. However now, this activity has really subsided. This doesn't only track the flu, but influenza like activity, which covid represents.... https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm

As a side note, in IL, there have been a little over 11,000 cases in nursing homes (approx 15% of all cases) but yet have been responsible for nearly 33% of the deaths associated with this.

See, to say that covid isn’t the underlying cause of deaths to me is like saying that you lost money in the stock market in 2008 because stocks went down, not because of the underlying housing crisis. Cause and effect, no? if someone contracts the virus, ends up getting pneumonia and then passes away, would they have had pneumonia without the virus? (Underlying cause aside, because I know there are a decent amount of those)

interesting about the vitamin D. Would help depends the N vs S argument.

The problem is that that data may never be reported. if the suggestion that the antibodies last 10 weeks, we'll never know.

Ugh, not the artificial stock market crap again. The bottom line is that countries with the most wealth are typically not producing economies, they naturally become service oriented. It's supply and demand - if you could produce a glass for $5 here but another country makes the exact same glass for $3, as a business that is a no brainer. It's not the fault of the 'economy' but the fault of business if you want to place blame. The stock market is the way that the general population can value certain companies with no intermediary. We all individually have access to own these companies and during times of economic shock or stress, valuations never make sense. The common thread is that rationalization always plays out and fair valuation eventually comes out. The human psychology controls this, not an 'entity.'

As someone who manages money for a living, I wish everyone would think like that.

I think that the sad reality is that a strong amount of people do live beyond their means.

Meanwhile, IL reports the most cases in the country today....

I'm not sure what that has to do with it? No other country is influencing our reporting data. You're saying that China is light years behind us in terms of reporting or understanding data? Any ocean front property in Arizona for sale that I can buy?

I agree with collaboration. But with that comes forwardness and honesty to share data. You really think that only 80,000 people had this in China - a country 5 times more populated than the US?

The real problem with Sweden’s approach is the general lack of knowledge around mutation. If this mutates similarly to the flu (only in terms of the viral replication and then mutation of the flu) then I don’t know how herd immunity would work.

https://covidtracking.com/data

what do we think of these guys? lots of flaws in this I think https://www.turnto23.com/news/coronavirus/video-interview-with-dr-dan-erickson-and-dr-artin-massihi-taken-down-from-youtube

Further complicating things - during the press conference yesterday, IL said that their Rt is at 1.2, while this (https://rt.live/) shows 0.88.

Interesting to see full sun and warming up so quickly. Used to the lousy starts with cloud cover and no time to recover.

The clorox gummies are not an option then?

OK now the opposite has happened and this has gotten a lot better. I guess I don't understand the data going in and coming out.

Also for anyone tracking this - the numbers have gotten worse. I can’t figure the explanation for that as well. https://rt.live/

Yes that’s what I can’t comprehend. I understand the higher rate of testing but why are the numbers still so high

This is the exact data we need. IL probably can’t afford to develop this, but I wonder how something like this compares to seasonal flu. That to me makes the determination as to the severity of this, given testing isn’t where it needs to be.

I can see that - but then how would you know that you’re actually bending the curve or if you are continuing to have population exposure. this is hard as I normally work with numbers but I hit a wall with modeling. Especially in a situation where the variable (the testing) continue to increase.

With regard to the herd immunity - Sweden has gone that route and has a 12% death rate. Granted that’s with testing less than 0.2% of the population.