RyanDe680

I think that the sad reality is that a strong amount of people do live beyond their means.

Meanwhile, IL reports the most cases in the country today....

I'm not sure what that has to do with it? No other country is influencing our reporting data. You're saying that China is light years behind us in terms of reporting or understanding data? Any ocean front property in Arizona for sale that I can buy?

I agree with collaboration. But with that comes forwardness and honesty to share data. You really think that only 80,000 people had this in China - a country 5 times more populated than the US?

The real problem with Sweden’s approach is the general lack of knowledge around mutation. If this mutates similarly to the flu (only in terms of the viral replication and then mutation of the flu) then I don’t know how herd immunity would work.

https://covidtracking.com/data

what do we think of these guys? lots of flaws in this I think https://www.turnto23.com/news/coronavirus/video-interview-with-dr-dan-erickson-and-dr-artin-massihi-taken-down-from-youtube

Further complicating things - during the press conference yesterday, IL said that their Rt is at 1.2, while this (https://rt.live/) shows 0.88.

The clorox gummies are not an option then?

OK now the opposite has happened and this has gotten a lot better. I guess I don't understand the data going in and coming out.

Also for anyone tracking this - the numbers have gotten worse. I can’t figure the explanation for that as well. https://rt.live/

Yes that’s what I can’t comprehend. I understand the higher rate of testing but why are the numbers still so high

This is the exact data we need. IL probably can’t afford to develop this, but I wonder how something like this compares to seasonal flu. That to me makes the determination as to the severity of this, given testing isn’t where it needs to be.

I can see that - but then how would you know that you’re actually bending the curve or if you are continuing to have population exposure. this is hard as I normally work with numbers but I hit a wall with modeling. Especially in a situation where the variable (the testing) continue to increase.

With regard to the herd immunity - Sweden has gone that route and has a 12% death rate. Granted that’s with testing less than 0.2% of the population.

He mentioned during some press conference this week (can't remember which) that the modeling did, but I don't think at that rate - something more in the 10k range. Still confusing to me how these number continue to go up despite the soon-to-be 6 week lock down on a virus that supposedly takes 14 days max to show symptoms. Something tells me that the 14 day thing is way off.

Just cases - Once that starts to decline then I would expect the number of deaths to follow within weeks.

So far today, the country is tracking below yesterday, which was below Sunday as well.

I find that hard to believe. No one is of course forthcoming on what 'models' these are based on but again, I can't understand why if we have been in lockdown for over 5 weeks now, thats 35 days. If this spreads for 14 days, whats going on with the continued rise in cases if we are 21 days past this. It has to be more than families passing it around. Hell, I have just been FaceTiming people. Illinois just needs to up the testing. Chicago is the 3rd biggest city in the country, yet we are behind Texas and Florida in testing?

The media will jump on this story... that is for a futures contract expiring tomorrow. It's basically saying that in 2 days, the value of oil won't be any higher than it was last week. If you look at crude oil, it's still in the $20s - granted that is still low, but the -$40 per barrel is just a ridiculous nonsense price .

This is great, thanks. Great way to see progress.

Sort of a dumb question I guess. Take IL for example - why would the number of cases continue to go up on a daily basis if we've been in lockdown for over a month, especially if this has a 14 day incubation? Is this just the spread at grocery stores and the like, or can this be that many asymptomatic people? What would cause an asymptomatic person to even get tested if the testing is so limited, according to every other article? I'm so confused on some of this stuff and I can come up with an explanation, but then I'm sitting here questioning myself...

So typical media - that’s an old photo. Drone photos from yesterday showed barely any people out there. Doesnt change the fact that their governor is still a moron.

that guy is a complete idiot. At 1,400 new cases a day down there how do you think that’s a good idea.

Yeah and that's the problem. With the lockdown 'the curve' may be flattened but is still substantial.