tim123

1 minute ago, tombo82685 said:

I’d like to see one of Monroe county 

Rgem still taint storm

1 hour ago, tombo82685 said:

Except ratios should be  close to 10-1

Average. 

Whats the euro output for freezing rain out your way?

1 minute ago, Stash said:

Yeah, I'm not looking to take anyone's snow.  As long as there isn't an ice storm here (snow or rain) whatever it does in Buffalo or Rochester is just fine.  Still have nightmares over that ice storm in December 2008, and being without power for a week.  All in all the Euro solution is only good for the NW portion of Upstate (and far northern NY), for the Southern Tier, Glens Falls/Capital Region, and Hudson Valley it's pretty awful.  Still time for the HP to build in a little earlier however.

All in all for our backyards all major global models show a foot. 

Euro would be 12 to 18 for most of forum. With ratios

More nw than o6z no?

Going to get crushed in euro

Looks more nw to me.

I would think so. Also depends on strength of that high.

Nothing is worse than the navy 

So what model was best euro of gfs. Nam cmc rgem? Just as a casual observer i think euro did better. Short range models not sure?

2 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

Yeah, NE winds off the Tug can lead to downsloping here. The local posters on here said that we don't usually downslope, but I have seen it a couple times. These SWFEs seem to have increased chances of it. Last February's storm was awful with downsloping here, while the southern part of Onondaga county wasn't affected. It affects Oswego county much worse. If the winds are weak, the impact can be very minimal for further south down here. In Onondaga county, it seems our friend in Brewerton (the northern tip of the county) has seen downsloping during synoptic events the most.

I have seen it even affect eastern wayne county.

Takes certain conditions ne wind but  Oswego county can downslope hard.

2 minutes ago, Stash said:

GFS tends to overdo the downsloping for ENY (as well as not handling effects of terrain too well overall here), but you know your area much better than I do.  How does Syracuse usually downslope...off the Tug?

1 minute ago, TugHillMatt said:

Yeah, I noticed that. It actaully looks very close to the GFS.

I think 10 to 1 would be too low of ratios. More like 13 to 1.

2 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

But yet you follow the Icon??

Unkmet is better than the icon for sure. I follow em all buddy. Ukmet is actually father north than last night

Just now, tombo82685 said:

Ukmet looks close to ggem from what I can see 

To bad it ukmet. Lol.

2 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

Back from Vermont so just catching up on things, but this is an accurate thread title.  I hate seeing the gfs lose this one as its been doing really well lately.   Vermont was great except late Saturday the winds got insane and temps plummeted, I got frost bite on my nose for the first time in my life.... not fun.  It was the coldest I've ever been in my life, actually got downright scary.  

Dam dude hope you didn't do any permanent damage.

Hey look a model that jacks syracuse.

Just now, Stash said:

I thought the op 12z GFS was pretty good for most of the forum...at least the Thruway corridor.

It was. Just not what it was showing

Like reed Timmer

1 minute ago, Buckeyes_Suck said:

We should all just live in motor homes so we can always be where it snows the heaviest. Whos in?

Nice lake signature here

1 minute ago, rochesterdave said:

CMC actually north from 0z. 

Not all that surprising considering rgem had all of us in the taint

Fwiw cmc looks like best model today so far for buffalo to syr.