tim123

Definitely has 3rd wave

Think he is skiing.

Is it good. Honestly don't know.

No idea honestly. From what I have seen its usually conservative on lake snow.

3rd weak wave still on icon. Lol

Thats you Dave and vort.

Thanks for these maps.

Oh he has a history.

Hi rez gfs goin to drop close to 20 inches on south shore

Tombo we enjoy the input you have. Just dial back the comments.

Wave 3 is with piece of energy left behind in Oklahoma i think.

First wave was always west need that to pass to get cold in. Sets the stage for 2 and maybe 3

Forecast was for a inch or less overnight.

Yeah that 4 to 1 is total bs. 6 to 1 yeah I can see for a few hours.

Can see on hrrr that subtle 3 wave develop in texas.

Arw does well in these lake enhanced set ups. They may inflate sometimes but gives you the idea.

I don't know sref plumes I found tend to do well with lake enhanced storms. They run a whole bunch of diffrent models and runs. But generally I take em with a grain of salt. I believe its a bunch of mesoscale models

Bgm do srefs do a standard 10 to 1 on the snow plumes or are ratios factored in?

Goin deep pulling out the sref plumes.

Ticked nw.

Its always winter until March 21. Lol

Friday. Based on previous guidance was all set to rush this system east of the area pretty quickly on Friday. However, trends now showing up that there could be yet another low-level wave lifting through to keep snow going through midday while larger scale lift ramps up again as northern stream trough advances across the Great Lakes. While this occurs northeast to northerly winds will be flowing across Lake Ontario with temps at top of inversion sufficient for lake enhancement. All in all, increased QPF and snow a bit compared to any larger scale blends and previous forecast. If the more amplified ECMWF and Canadian-Regional are right on this trend (supported more now by 06z NAM), then could see even more snow on Friday especially from lake enhancement. Still cannot rule out some blowing snow especially in open areas near Lake Ontario. Coord with near term forecaster on headlines with the system and opted to go to 15z for end time of warning over far western NY and to 18z for rest of the area. System finally pulls east late Friday, leaving persistent but light lake effect off Lake Ontario in a more northwest flow by that point. Temps chilly on Friday with readings in the upper teens to near 20F not rising much from overnight lows Thursday night. Wind chills will be as cold as the single digits below zero east of Lake Ontario to the single digits above zero

Morning Dave. Lake enhancement looks really nice with this one. Some of em have it snowing for 40 hours lol

Unusually dead in here this morning.