Brick Tamland

Always walking that line in Wake.

NAM starts out warmer and gets colder while the 3K starts out colder and gets warmer.

3k is colder for NC. More snow for Wake and the Triangle.

NAM is colder at 54.

3K at 48.

Precip is definitely not an issue on the NAM.

Incoming on the NAM?

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Raleigh NC 314 PM EST Mon Feb 17 2025 NCZ007>011-021>028-038>041-181115- /O.NEW.KRAH.WS.A.0002.250219T1200Z-250220T1500Z/ Person-Granville-Vance-Warren-Halifax-Forsyth-Guilford-Alamance- Orange-Durham-Franklin-Nash-Edgecombe-Davidson-Randolph-Chatham- Wake- Including the cities of Creedmoor, High Point, Spring Hope, Apex, Roxboro, Louisburg, Raleigh, Siler City, Pittsboro, Thomasville, Greensboro, Lexington, Rocky Mount, Nashville, Franklinton, Durham, Carrboro, Wake Forest, Archdale, Norlina, Oxford, Hillsborough, Henderson, Burlington, Cary, Graham, Kittrell, Mebane, Princeville, Tarboro, Knightdale, Chapel Hill, Asheboro, Enfield, Roanoke Rapids, Rougemont, Scotland Neck, Warrenton, and Winston-Salem 314 PM EST Mon Feb 17 2025 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING... * WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow and sleet accumulations between 1 and 6 inches, greatest accumulations towards the North Carolina and Virginia border. Ice accumulations up to two tenths of an inch possible, greatest accumulations along and south of US 64 corridor. * WHERE...Northern Piedmont and northern Coastal Plain. * WHEN...From Wednesday morning through Thursday morning. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Wednesday morning and evening commutes, potentially impacting the Thursday morning commutes. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Expect predominantly a mixture of snow and sleet with a relatively short period of freezing rain. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation. Consider delaying all travel. Motorists should use extreme caution if travel is absolutely necessary.

RAH going with the wide spread of 1 to 6 inches of snow.

RAH just issued a winter storm watch until 10 AM Thursday.

OK. Hope you're right and it just didn't go out long enough to show the goods.

Hope the NAM and 3K NAM are good.

All the precip to the south is moving east instead of north.

HRRR is no yeet. Looks like the precip from the south never makes it into NC. Only get some coming from the west.

All the TV mets would rather bust low than forecast a big storm and it not happen.

WRAL said yesterday Raleigh north would be snow. They will probably keep changing it up until Wednesday.

Well, it went from showing the biggest amounts to now showing the smallest amounts compared to the GFS, ICON and Canadian in less than 48 hours. A lot of back and forth and switching places the last 48 hours.

Euro ended up better than I thought it would, but still not as good as the Canadian, ICON and even GFS. It seems to have switched places with the other models in less than 48 hours.

Euro similar to the UK. A lot of the precip stays south of NC.

Guess the UK is better compared to the last run, but it's still ugly here.

So far this round Good - GFS, ICON, Canadian and RGEM Bad- NAM, UK

Pure doodoo.