Cold Rain
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Everything posted by Cold Rain
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So we have the Nam and the Paranormal Nam warmer and farther NW. The RGEM holds serve. The GFS looks to be coming in stronger. A nod to the Nam?
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It doesn't start till hour 84. That said, it probably still accurately shows the amount of snow that will fall.
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RGEM makes me feel a little better.
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Going to hold off on the Jack Daniels Tylenol until the RGEM and GFS come out.
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I have a headache now.
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PM me your phone number and I'll provide text updates. GFS way NW GEM with a massive jump north UK -- can't see what happens between the 96 hr panel increments ICON -- Low over Smithfield EURO -- MUCH warmer You know the drill.
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Yes, that is usually true. Before, we just had to hope the cold would be filtering in quickly. Now, we have to hope that the models are busting too high on temps, the cold will filter in quickly, and the NAM is completely wrong at 36 hours. I'm sure we'll add to this list shortly.
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Haha. I wouldn't be as concerned if the NAM wasn't getting warmer with each successive run. That's a problem.
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Lol! Well at least we got long-tracked this thing all the way up until 36 hours. That was kinda fun. Tiny little jumps NW at 60-48 and then BAM! Massive shift at 36.
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Just wait and see.... You'll be saying, "Well, it's just snow. No big deal." By 10:45 tonight.
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Well, that's the ballgame. Enjoy your snow VA and western Piedmont! Take plenty of pix for us!
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Haha true!
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When will we start to see some posts about the NAM warm bias and not handling the thermals well because it's a horrible model?
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Yep, definitely shook. Just wait till the ice cold GFS comes in warmer.
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Been prepared. Just wondering what took it so long to start.
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Yep, 850 line going to be farther NW, no doubt. How can the models not analyze these things correctly once they're over land?
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Every run of the NAM brings the R/S line closer.
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Last minute NW trend FTW! Always happens.
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Thanks. I'm right on the line on that one. No thanks.
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How can we tell where the R/S line is on that thing?
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Yeah, it's definitely gonna come in warmer with all kinds of warm noses, too amped, and dry slots.
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Oh, and you just know that Gulf convection is going to play a negative role here. It will. In the meantime, it's imperative that the Euro hold serve tonight. That is a must have.
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That's about my expectation. 2-4. Almost warning criteria.
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Only 46 hrs to go. What could possibly go wrong? By the way, QPF is always overdone, temps the day of are always higher, and cold air is always late funneling in.
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Start it back. That thread is dead. We gotta light it back up. Let's start on Monday.
